Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

Normandy · #801 Postby **Normandy** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 3:44 am

It has a pretty balanced windfield.

#802 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 9:43 am

Plane is flying towards Wilma.

bigmoney755 · #803 Postby **bigmoney755** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:30 am

when are they going to give us some data?

jpigott · #804 Postby **jpigott** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:39 am

kinda joking - kinda serious when i say this: Maybe the recon guys can take some pictures of what's left of Cozumel while they are in the eye

calculatedrisk · #805 Postby **calculatedrisk** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 11:40 am

bigmoney755 wrote:when are they going to give us some data?

Currently 2759N 08659W. My guess is about 75 minutes for data.

#806 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:27 pm

Plane is now on operational altitud so hard data will come very soon including a vortex message.

jpigott · #807 Postby **jpigott** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:36 pm

my guess - 934mb and max flight winds of 119kts

bigmoney755 · #808 Postby **bigmoney755** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:37 pm

116kts would be a weak cat 3.

djtil · #809 Postby **djtil** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:41 pm

this is somewhat of a relief that winds are probably 115-120 instead of 145....not that damage wont occur...but hopefully not extreme.

#810 Postby **curtadams** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:44 pm

GFDL intensity forecast has been perfect. Weak 4 offshore, 3 coming in. I don't know why the NHC held the intensity so high when aircraft, dropsonde, SFMR, and modeling all suggested a 10-20-knot weaker storm.

djtil · #811 Postby **djtil** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:46 pm

I don't know why the NHC held the intensity so high when aircraft, dropsonde, SFMR, and modeling all suggested a 10-20-knot weaker storm.

its life.....every storm is handled this way and i dont really see the negative aspect of it....better to err on the side of caution.

tallywx · #812 Postby **tallywx** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:46 pm

yeah, perhaps only Katrina-like damage due to the expanded windfield of cat 2 and 3 winds. no sweat.

mtm4319 · #813 Postby **mtm4319** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:47 pm

djtil wrote:this is somewhat of a relief that winds are probably 115-120 instead of 145....not that damage wont occur...but hopefully not extreme.

If you buy into the low cat-3 at landfall for Katrina (which I'm sure you do), then why would you say this? And Wilma is moving much more slowly, which means more time under those supposedly 115-120 winds.

#814 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:47 pm

The VDM in a matter of minutes.

djtil · #815 Postby **djtil** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:53 pm

If you buy into the low cat-3 at landfall for Katrina (which I'm sure you do), then why would you say this? And Wilma is moving much more slowly, which means more time under those supposedly 115-120 winds.

whatever conditions led to the extreme surge in katrina arent repeated in every storm so im assuming that the surge damage wont be the same in cozumel and cancun. obviously could be wrong but regardless....the catastrophic wind damage at 145mph is at least off the table.

bigmoney755 · #816 Postby **bigmoney755** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:54 pm

let us remember that the official nhc forecast is for landfall with winds of 155mph.

#817 Postby **curtadams** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:55 pm

Dang, that's a big eye. An entire message fully within it. The outer eyewall is very thick, too. Looks like she is indeed going through another ERC. with the outer eyewall stronger (inner was stronger last night) Good timing for Cozumel and Cancun.

djtil · #818 Postby **djtil** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 12:56 pm

let us remember that the official nhc forecast is for landfall with winds of 155mph.

a forecast that is thankfully not even close to being realized.

bigmoney755 · #819 Postby **bigmoney755** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:02 pm

winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 926 mb.

Website · #820 Postby **Brent** » Fri Oct 21, 2005 1:02 pm

926 mb on the 1pm advisory. Winds are down to 140 though.

Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

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