Invest 99L,Eastern Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[JamesFromMaine2]

Invest 99L is up!

[Aquawind]

ACKK!!!! Geesh enough already... go poof so we can have a Alpha fish.. This looks like no fish..

Paul

[JamesFromMaine2]

[skysummit]

NRL Page:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... s&DISPLAY=

[cycloneye]

[WeatherEmperor]

am gonna be really curious what track this could take with Wilma moving slow and all.

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

JamesMaine2 I refined the title of thread to include where is the invest and the traditional words for the many pages threads.

[JamesFromMaine2]

5:30am TWO: A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

8:05am TWD: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 55W-64W WHICH HAS
ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS BARBADOS AND PARTS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
BETWEEN GRENADA AND MARTINIQUE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ARE ALSO FORMING OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 60W-68W. THE WINDS AT BARBADOS AND ST. LUCIA HAVE BEEN
SUSTAINED AT 28 KT AND 23 KT (WITH A GUST TO 34 KT AT ST. LUCIA)
RESPECTIVELY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME OVER THE WEEKEND.

[Coredesat]

This one doesn't seem to have much of a future considering where and how fast it's going. Wilma's probably gonna rip it apart.

[Mia-cane]

Good morning all! I am in Barbados this morning. The wind was really howling last night here and it has been raining off and on since yesterday. I am flying back to Miami today to prep the house and wait. Yep, just running from one system to the other.

[SkeetoBite]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992005) ON 20051021 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051021 1200 051022 0000 051022 1200 051023 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 62.9W 14.0N 65.4W 14.9N 67.8W 15.9N 70.0W
BAMM 13.0N 62.9W 14.2N 65.7W 15.5N 68.1W 16.8N 70.1W
A98E 13.0N 62.9W 13.3N 66.2W 13.7N 69.2W 14.4N 71.8W
LBAR 13.0N 62.9W 13.7N 65.8W 14.7N 68.2W 15.8N 70.7W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051023 1200 051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 72.2W 21.5N 75.9W 31.4N 71.5W 42.9N 51.5W
BAMM 18.1N 72.0W 23.3N 74.4W 34.8N 69.4W 45.1N 57.5W
A98E 15.5N 73.9W 18.2N 76.8W 21.3N 76.8W 25.0N 75.1W
LBAR 17.1N 72.8W 21.6N 75.0W 26.7N 70.3W 24.5N 67.4W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 48KTS 46KTS
DSHP 39KTS 41KTS 43KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 62.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 59.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 54.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



First Model Plots for 99L.

[Aquawind]

SHIPS calling for Alpha alrighty.. no real suprise for that model.. But were talking Alpha here.. Wildness... November yet..


Paul

[cycloneye]

SHIPS calling for Alpha alrighty.. no real suprise for that model.. But were talking Alpha here.. Wildness... November yet..


Paul

Paul only one word describes this.INCREDIBLE!!

[Trader Ron]

5:30am TWO: A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

8:05am TWD: STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 61W S OF 20N
MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 55W-64W WHICH HAS
ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS BARBADOS AND PARTS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
BETWEEN GRENADA AND MARTINIQUE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/
TSTMS ARE ALSO FORMING OVER THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 60W-68W. THE WINDS AT BARBADOS AND ST. LUCIA HAVE BEEN
SUSTAINED AT 28 KT AND 23 KT (WITH A GUST TO 34 KT AT ST. LUCIA)
RESPECTIVELY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AT ANY TIME OVER THE WEEKEND.

Great, I'm leaving on a cruise tomorrow out of FLL to the Eastern Caribbean. They are coming at me in both directions.

[cjrciadt]

gets picked up with Wilma when the front comes?

[JamesFromMaine2]

this morning GFS run for Wilma Developed this wave into a full Hurricane!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Trader Ron]

Someone on TWC yesterday said it bears watching. Looks like he was right.

[Scott_inVA]

First model map on Invest 99L. Gonna be very difficult to get this near CONUS.



Scott
Mid-atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[flashflood]

Great, I'm leaving on a cruise tomorrow out of FLL to the Eastern Caribbean. They are coming at me in both directions.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I was supposed to be on a cruise out of FLL too, but could not get on. Let me know how it went when you get back. I will be flying to TX instead. Knowing my luck, if I reschedule my vacation, then probably Wilma and possibly Alpha will not hit my area and I'll be stuck at home bored, wishing I went. But if I go, then both will probably hit S.FL and I'll be too worried about my house and family to have fun. I was hoping on that this season will end up like last season, obviously that did not pan out, I guess it's back to winter ski vacations from now on.