What is the likelyhood that the track will end up more north

[NateFLA]

I am looking at the computer models and watching the front etc, but I am going home to Tampa this weekend to be with my family before the storm comes through. If it is likely that Wilma will have a dangerous impact on the Tampa area I want to be sure to stay home so I can be of help to my mom since my dad will likely have to stay at the hospital with patients. I don't want my mom home alone in a dangerous hurricane.

Thoughts?

[inotherwords]

I don't think anyone really knows yet.

A lot will depend on the storm's interaction with the Yucatan, whether it moves over land or sits offshore, and for how long. I think the real risk to our coast is not knowing how much it will deintensify before it hits, and what kind of surge forecast we can expect in best/worst situations.

I know this isn't a good answer but I don't think anyone really knows yet where this is going to go. All of us in the cone are vulnerable and we all should be prepared. I think we'll know a lot more in 24 hours, but that may be a little late for your decision. I think you just need to do what you think is best for your family. That's what I'm doing, I'm going up to stay with my 82 year old mother for the duration in her home which is in a Cat 3 evac area, hoping we won't get a stronger storm or bigger surge this time.

The most encouraging thing for both of us is that the NHC tracks have been very accurate this year and they've put the storm coming in near Naples consistently for days now, and most of the more reliable models have this coming in far south of us, even further south than the NHC track. Of course this may change. There are a lot of uncertainties about what will happen in the short term and that will determine what happens to us.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 210759
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...ALL INTERESTS IN WEST CENTRAL AND SW FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR HURRICANE WILMA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...EXACT TIMING OF WHEN HURRICANE WILMA WILL
EFFECT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM. LATEST NHC
FORECAST HAS NOW PUSHED THIS BACK TO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY OUTSIDE
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THROUGH SATURDAY THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES...TRYING TO SPREAD NORTH. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING BY TO THE
NORTH LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM WILMA MAY LIMIT HEATING WHICH
COULD ALSO LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 70
POPS FAR SOUTH AND 50 POPS ELSEWHERE FOR TODAY...40 TO 50 POPS MAINLY
EARLY TONIGHT...AND 60 TO 70 POPS ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A COLD
FRONT WILL BE PUSHING SOUTH INTO FORECAST AREA WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF DRIER AIR MOVING SOUTHWARD AT THE SURFACE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE JUST OFF THE SURFACE LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS FORECAST
MAY CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF WILMA SO STAY TUNED.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...THEN AS
SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-THU)...SEEMS LIKE WE GET TO A DIFFERENT DAY BUT
HAVE THE SAME THINGS TO DISCUSS. TPC FORECAST NOW SIGNIFICANTLY
SLOWER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...AND GFS IS MUCH SLOWER STILL.

WE HAVE TWO MAJOR PLAYERS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST IS POWERFUL
HURRICANE WILMA...WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST MONDAY MORNING. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A DEEP EAST
COAST TROUGH IN THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IT`S
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS WILMA MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA BEFORE THIS TROUGH BECOMES WELL
ESTABLISHED. THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
GULF BEFORE WILMA REACHES FLORIDA. NEEDLESS TO SAY THESE DIFFERENCES
ARE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT THEY WILL DETERMINE WHERE AND WHEN WILMA
WILL IMPACT THE AREA...AND HOW STRONG SHE WILL BE WHEN SHE GETS
THERE.

THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...BRINGING
WILMA JUST A BIT SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING. ON THIS
TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH OF LEE COUNTY
ALTHOUGH HIGH-END TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR.
STILL...IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO LET OUR GUARD DOWN AS SIGNIFICANT
TRACK ERRORS OCCUR WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A STORM THAT`S STILL
MORE THAN 3 DAYS OUT.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA DOES MOVE SLOWER...AND RIDES
UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...MUCH HEAVIER
RAINS COULD OCCUR OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA IN AN OVER-RUNNING TYPE
PATTERN. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD BE RIDING UP OVER A COOL DENSE
AIR MASS WHICH WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT LIFT AND HEAVY STEADY RAINS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS. THE SLOWER GFS SHOWS THIS NICELY...BUT WILL
NOT SHOW A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME SINCE A FASTER
MOVEMENT AS SHOWN IN TPC FORECAST WOULD BRING WILMA ACROSS AS A
PURELY TROPICAL SYSTEM.

ONCE WILMA DEPARTS...THE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SHARPLY
DRIVING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO OUR REGION. I WILL TWEAK
GRIDDED TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY LARGE
CHANGES UNTIL WE GET BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS OF WHEN WILMA
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE. IN ANY EVENT...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME
REFRESHING COOL WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BY MID-WEEK.

&&