Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

[skysummit]

Yup...she has weakend while looking her best.

[bigmoney755]

wow what happened? nhc did not forecast weakening...they forcasted significant strengthening

[CronkPSU]

422
SXXX50 KNHC 210518
AF306 1324A WILMA HDOB 25 KNHC
0508 1905N 08614W 03052 5279 304 109 126 116 110 02778 0000000000
0508. 1904N 08615W 03053 5251 302 105 130 098 106 02807 0000000000
0509 1902N 08616W 03049 5227 301 100 122 104 102 02828 0000000000
0509. 1900N 08616W 03050 5207 300 099 122 108 100 02848 0000000000
0510 1859N 08617W 03050 5189 297 096 118 104 097 02866 0000000000
0510. 1857N 08618W 03052 5174 297 092 116 104 092 02883 0000000000
0511 1856N 08619W 03050 5163 298 089 114 106 090 02892 0000000000
0511. 1856N 08620W 03053 5156 299 088 112 104 089 02903 0000000000
0512 1855N 08621W 03049 5149 301 086 116 096 086 02905 0000000000
0512. 1855N 08623W 03052 5143 303 086 116 100 086 02914 0000000000
0513 1854N 08624W 03051 5136 305 084 110 110 085 02921 0000000000
0513. 1854N 08625W 03050 5131 305 083 114 110 084 02925 0000000000
0514 1854N 08626W 03051 5127 306 079 110 110 082 02930 0000000000
0514. 1853N 08628W 03051 5121 313 074 100 100 075 02936 0000000000
0515 1853N 08629W 03054 5115 317 072 100 100 073 02944 0000000000
0515. 1852N 08631W 03049 5109 320 074 104 104 077 02945 0000000000
0516 1852N 08632W 03051 5102 322 077 096 096 078 02954 0000000000
0516. 1851N 08634W 03056 5096 325 082 088 088 086 02966 0000000000
0517 1851N 08635W 03041 5090 318 090 078 078 095 02956 0000000000
0517. 1850N 08636W 03051 5086 314 096 076 076 097 02971 0000000000

[mtm4319]

Take a look back at those guesses on page 36.

[bigmoney755]

do you think this is because she is going through another erc?

[CronkPSU]

Take a look back at those guesses on page 36.

closer than the guesses from tuesday night

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

You would never expect that it was weaking when it has a donute shape. With a 35 nmi wide eye that has cleared out. I would have to be crazy to have said what its doing now. WHY IS IT WEAKING WHEN IT LOOKS AS INTENSE IT HAS in the last 24 hours?

[skysummit]

You would never expect that it was weaking when it has a donute shape. With a 35 nmi wide eye that has cleared out. I would have to be crazy to have said what its doing now. WHY IS IT WEAKING WHEN IT LOOKS AS INTENSE IT HAS in the last 24 hours?

Dunno....that's just nuts. It clearly looks better than it has all day long. I thought it would've at least held its own.

[kevin]

Calm down Matt, you seem to be taking an intellectual thing (forecasting) and making it emotional.

[Foladar0]

You would never expect that it was weaking when it has a donute shape. With a 35 nmi wide eye that has cleared out. I would have to be crazy to have said what its doing now. WHY IS IT WEAKING WHEN IT LOOKS AS INTENSE IT HAS in the last 24 hours?

I'm an amateur, but I think you can see the possible problem in this photo:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The radar can't see to the southern quad...Its to far out. The eye is closed.

[skysummit]

The radar can't see to the southern quad...Its to far out. The eye is closed.

Plus, the radar is like 20,000 feet or so high on that southern end. It may even be higher than that.

[mtm4319]

0512. 1855N 08623W 03052 5143 303 086 116 100 086 02914 0000000000
0513 1854N 08624W 03051 5136 305 084 110 110 085 02921 0000000000
0513. 1854N 08625W 03050 5131 305 083 114 110 084 02925 0000000000
0514 1854N 08626W 03051 5127 306 079 110 110 082 02930 0000000000
0514. 1853N 08628W 03051 5121 313 074 100 100 075 02936 0000000000
0515 1853N 08629W 03054 5115 317 072 100 100 073 02944 0000000000
0515. 1852N 08631W 03049 5109 320 074 104 104 077 02945 0000000000
0516 1852N 08632W 03051 5102 322 077 096 096 078 02954 0000000000
0516. 1851N 08634W 03056 5096 325 082 088 088 086 02966 0000000000
0517 1851N 08635W 03041 5090 318 090 078 078 095 02956 0000000000
0517. 1850N 08636W 03051 5086 314 096 076 076 097 02971 0000000000

Looks like another double wind maximum in the SW quadrant. Why would this be going through another ERC so soon?

[Foladar0]

The radar can't see to the southern quad...Its to far out. The eye is closed.

I don't know .. this was a prior shot .. looks ragged on the bottom?

[CronkPSU]

alright off to bed...see y'all in 6 hours

[Foladar0]

btw that was a simple suggestion seeing as I have no idea what I'm doing

[bigmoney755]

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Wilma could regain category five strength as it approaches
the Yucatan later today. HOW?????

[JamesFromMaine2]

they left the max winds at 150mph so thats how it still could regain cat5!

[bigmoney755]

they left the max winds at 150mph so thats how it still could regain cat5!

flight level winds were only 128kts though...and pressure is rising..double wind maxima...the whole 9 yards

[mtm4319]

Heading towards the SE quad now.