RIC starting or just a flare up? Cat 5 now??

[dhweather]

It will be interesting to watch this for the next few hours. God help
the people in the Yucatan, this isn't potentially catastrophic, it
IS CATASTROPHIC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[SamSagnella]

Another rapid intensification cycle would be absolutely devastating for NErn Yucatan Mexico. It seems that a strengthening storm of a given magnitude has greater damage potential than a weakening storm of the same magnitude. Category 1 Katrina in S FL caught many off-guard by it's 'really-intense-for-only-80-mph' winds.

[Lowpressure]

Eye is clearing out and the cloud tops are cooling. Nice jog to the NNW for some time now, I do not see a stall coming-just my opinion.

[dhweather]

The eye continues to clear out, and convection has increased in
all but the NW quadrant.

[deltadog03]

good point DH, the eye is clearing out and that deep convection is getting very close to wrapping all the way around

[dhweather]

Looking at the IR loop, the deep convection has almost completely
encircled the core of Wilma. If she's not back to a cat 5 now, she
most certainly will be in a few hours. God be with those in the Yucatan.

[Normandy]

We wondered two years ago what Isabel would have done if it had hit land....now we will find out.

[jkt21787]

As I said in the primary comment thread, the western side has really been decayed recently. Not sure of this cat 5 talk anymore.

[deltadog03]

kevin, take a look at the radar...very impressive....also, maybe land doing it?

[jkt21787]

kevin, take a look at the radar...very impressive....also, maybe land doing it?

PurdueWx80 believes its a good amount of shear which is reasonable. He agrees with me that time for a cat 5 has about run out...

[dhweather]

I guess the point is moot, they will get cat 5 surge without exception,
and battered with 4/5 winds for hours. This will be a catastrophic event.

[dhweather]

In the newest frame in the loop 0145Z - reds now circle to core of Wilma.
It's not as deep on the NW side, but it is consistently building over
there.

I strongly suspect she is a 5 again.

[MiamiensisWx]

Despite shear to it's west, convection is starting to entirely circle the eye and build below...

[caneman]

In the newest frame in the loop 0145Z - reds now circle to core of Wilma.
It's not as deep on the NW side, but it is consistently building over
there.

I strongly suspect she is a 5 again.

I agree.

[MiamiensisWx]

Latest DVORAK infra-red imagery... pretty impressive despite shear to it's west...

[djtil]

i dont really see any evidence of shear...there are other causes for warming of cloudtops but overalll the cloud pattern is symetric.

i know none was forecast during this time frame.

[jhamps10]

looking at the IR, WV, DVORAK, and Vis- I don't see edviance of shear, but rather just land interacting on the NW side. Do I think it's a 5 RIGHT NOW? Yes. of course.
Pressure measuring just looking at satellite is nearly impossible, but from looking at it, I would have to say that right now it is probley around 910-912 MB. anyone want to chime in out this?

[dhweather]

I'm thinking 900-910 range right now. I wonder what TAFB/AFWA T numbers are right now.

[djtil]

no, i dont think the recent convection flareup has probably resulted in a significant pressure drop yet, will have to see if it persists and wraps around to know whether a real strengthening trend is beginning....i would bet recon finds 920+

[gpickett00]

i dont really see any evidence of shear...there are other causes for warming of cloudtops but overalll the cloud pattern is symetric.

i know none was forecast during this time frame.

I think you're right, there isnt shear affecting the cdo or anything around it. Our eyes are being trained to spotting cat 5s this year. I can usually tell now it seems.