From Thurs 5 PM Disco

[terpfan]

.....BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND
WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE
CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION
WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA
LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Full Text here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2031.shtml

[k-man]

So basically, the YP is going to get positively clobbered and Florida will see a much weakened Wilma. I wonder if she'll even retain Cane' status by the time she makes her way here.

[terpfan]

Yup.

Interesting to note that the CPA for my Zip Code (Plantation, FL) has fluctuated very little over the past few days according to the tool on Stormcarib's website, i.e., currently

Results for 26.11N, 80.22W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 26.6N, 80.7W or about 41.9 miles (67.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 90.4 hours.

weakening predicted is welcome indeed.

[terpfan]

Yikes!

24HR VT 21/1800Z 20.4N 87.0W 145 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 21.1N 87.2W 120 KT...INLAND

12 hours over the YP at that intensity. OMG.

[k-man]

Oh absolutely terpfan! I'm all for a little tropical storm here in Florida. My parents own a home in Key Colony Beach...little town on the Atlantic side near Marathon...in the Keys. They bought this little tiny place 10 years ago and it has positively *ballooned* in price. They're so nervous with this hyper-hurricane cycle that we're in that they have decided to sell. The house is on the market now....and I'd love to see them sell it before the Keys get clobbered (which will definitely happen one of these days....likely in the next five years I'd say). We (my siblings and I) advised them that it may be a good idea to cash out now...and rent down there from here on out. The sale will greatly enhance the enjoyment of their retirement years, and well, it's just not as safe as it used to be living in the Keys, or the coast of Florida...or the Gulf Coast...and on and on. These past two years are enough to keep my from buying on the coast...I'll tell you that.

[terpfan]

Sounds like good advice K-man. Insurance alone is going to be brutal in the future.

[ihatebadweather]

Tropical Storm sounds good to me at this point. The fluctuations on this thing are causing some serious anxiety.

Hey terpfan....big game tonight!! (I'm a terp fan in Coral Springs)

[inotherwords]

Oh absolutely terpfan! I'm all for a little tropical storm here in Florida. My parents own a home in Key Colony Beach...little town on the Atlantic side near Marathon...in the Keys. They bought this little tiny place 10 years ago and it has positively *ballooned* in price. They're so nervous with this hyper-hurricane cycle that we're in that they have decided to sell. The house is on the market now....and I'd love to see them sell it before the Keys get clobbered (which will definitely happen one of these days....likely in the next five years I'd say). We (my siblings and I) advised them that it may be a good idea to cash out now...and rent down there from here on out. The sale will greatly enhance the enjoyment of their retirement years, and well, it's just not as safe as it used to be living in the Keys, or the coast of Florida...or the Gulf Coast...and on and on. These past two years are enough to keep my from buying on the coast...I'll tell you that.

I think a lot of people are deciding to do that. In fact, I am selling one of the 3 homes I own here so I can look at a second home up in the Carolinas or Georgia mountains that I can go to during hurricane season. What is going to be bad, though, about the renting scenario is that rents will skyrocket because the landlords have to pass along the higher costs for insurance. I do seasonal rentals and I know my rates are going to go nuts next year. I really wonder if people are still going to want to come visit here if it gets too expensive or if they'll just go elsewhere.

The hurricanes of the 20s pretty much cratered the real estate boom here then, I suppose it could very easily do the same now.

[terpfan]

Will there be anything left of Cancun after 12 hours of 145-120 knot winds? I think I am gonna say a prayer or six for those folks....

[schmita]

Yup.

Interesting to note that the CPA for my Zip Code (Plantation, FL) has fluctuated very little over the past few days according to the tool on Stormcarib's website, i.e., currently

Results for 26.11N, 80.22W:
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 26.6N, 80.7W or about 41.9 miles (67.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the eye will be at that location is in about 90.4 hours.

weakening predicted is welcome indeed.

Um, my sister is in Wellington, 26.6 80.2 I believe. That puts it right by her house?!!

[Canelaw99]

Unless Wellington is here near Homestead/S. Dade, those aren't the coordinates I'm in Homestead and mine are 25.2N 80.2 W

[tampastorm]

128 miles from me in Tampa, I am expecting TS force winds at the least.

[terpfan]

Hey terpfan....big game tonight!! (I'm a terp fan in Coral Springs)

PMed you re Terps/VT

[k-man]

Oh absolutely terpfan! I'm all for a little tropical storm here in Florida. My parents own a home in Key Colony Beach...little town on the Atlantic side near Marathon...in the Keys. They bought this little tiny place 10 years ago and it has positively *ballooned* in price. They're so nervous with this hyper-hurricane cycle that we're in that they have decided to sell. The house is on the market now....and I'd love to see them sell it before the Keys get clobbered (which will definitely happen one of these days....likely in the next five years I'd say). We (my siblings and I) advised them that it may be a good idea to cash out now...and rent down there from here on out. The sale will greatly enhance the enjoyment of their retirement years, and well, it's just not as safe as it used to be living in the Keys, or the coast of Florida...or the Gulf Coast...and on and on. These past two years are enough to keep my from buying on the coast...I'll tell you that.

I think a lot of people are deciding to do that. In fact, I am selling one of the 3 homes I own here so I can look at a second home up in the Carolinas or Georgia mountains that I can go to during hurricane season. What is going to be bad, though, about the renting scenario is that rents will skyrocket because the landlords have to pass along the higher costs for insurance. I do seasonal rentals and I know my rates are going to go nuts next year. I really wonder if people are still going to want to come visit here if it gets too expensive or if they'll just go elsewhere.

The hurricanes of the 20s pretty much cratered the real estate boom here then, I suppose it could very easily do the same now.

I don't think rentals will keep pace with the real estate pricing. It sure hasn't in the Keys. Not even close. Most people down there figure on buying, holding for a few years, renting to off-set costs a bit and then unloading. But those days are almost over. My parents bought their home for 80K ten years ago. It's on the market now for $725. Positively insane. If you're buying that house for 725K and thinking that the market will continue to escalate or that you'll be able to cover your investment in rental income, you are equally insane...not you...but you know what I mean.

With these MAJOR Canes that are whipping up again and again...and the Keys not getting a major hit...well, it seems smarter for them to sell and then rent in the same area, which they love.

[Brent]

Unless Wellington is here near Homestead/S. Dade, those aren't the coordinates I'm in Homestead and mine are 25.2N 80.2 W

I just checked, there is a Wellington in Palm Beach County. 26.65 N 80.29 W

[Canelaw99]

Wow, brent - I stand corrected then. I guess I figured the lat. would have to go up more than that to get between extreme south Dade and Palm Beach.

[caneseddy]

Just to back Brent up, Wellington is in western Palm Beach close to the Turnpike....it's a very nice area and many beautiful houses

[baygirl_1]

I don't think rentals will keep pace with the real estate pricing. It sure hasn't in the Keys. Not even close. Most people down there figure on buying, holding for a few years, renting to off-set costs a bit and then unloading. But those days are almost over. My parents bought their home for 80K ten years ago. It's on the market now for $725. Positively insane. If you're buying that house for 725K and thinking that the market will continue to escalate or that you'll be able to cover your investment in rental income, you are equally insane...not you...but you know what I mean.

With these MAJOR Canes that are whipping up again and again...and the Keys not getting a major hit...well, it seems smarter for them to sell and then rent in the same area, which they love.

My sister and her husband own land with a trailer on it near Marathon. That trailer isn't worth diddly, but the land is worth like a half million! And the land is not going anywhere: unlike our Dauphin Island, which is all sand, their property is on solid coral. So, their trailer might be wiped out, but the property will be there. They never go down there during hurricane season, anyway. It's not my idea of an investment, but they sure like it!

[schmita]

Unless Wellington is here near Homestead/S. Dade, those aren't the coordinates I'm in Homestead and mine are 25.2N 80.2 W

I just checked, there is a Wellington in Palm Beach County. 26.65 N 80.29 W

Thanks Brent. I think. Will have to run the CPA again. Getting freaky.
She's leaving for Orlando tomorrow. Had too much fun last year with Frances et al.
irina

[inotherwords]

Oh absolutely terpfan! I'm all for a little tropical storm here in Florida. My parents own a home in Key Colony Beach...little town on the Atlantic side near Marathon...in the Keys. They bought this little tiny place 10 years ago and it has positively *ballooned* in price. They're so nervous with this hyper-hurricane cycle that we're in that they have decided to sell. The house is on the market now....and I'd love to see them sell it before the Keys get clobbered (which will definitely happen one of these days....likely in the next five years I'd say). We (my siblings and I) advised them that it may be a good idea to cash out now...and rent down there from here on out. The sale will greatly enhance the enjoyment of their retirement years, and well, it's just not as safe as it used to be living in the Keys, or the coast of Florida...or the Gulf Coast...and on and on. These past two years are enough to keep my from buying on the coast...I'll tell you that.

I think a lot of people are deciding to do that. In fact, I am selling one of the 3 homes I own here so I can look at a second home up in the Carolinas or Georgia mountains that I can go to during hurricane season. What is going to be bad, though, about the renting scenario is that rents will skyrocket because the landlords have to pass along the higher costs for insurance. I do seasonal rentals and I know my rates are going to go nuts next year. I really wonder if people are still going to want to come visit here if it gets too expensive or if they'll just go elsewhere.

The hurricanes of the 20s pretty much cratered the real estate boom here then, I suppose it could very easily do the same now.

I don't think rentals will keep pace with the real estate pricing. It sure hasn't in the Keys. Not even close. Most people down there figure on buying, holding for a few years, renting to off-set costs a bit and then unloading. But those days are almost over. My parents bought their home for 80K ten years ago. It's on the market now for $725. Positively insane. If you're buying that house for 725K and thinking that the market will continue to escalate or that you'll be able to cover your investment in rental income, you are equally insane...not you...but you know what I mean.

With these MAJOR Canes that are whipping up again and again...and the Keys not getting a major hit...well, it seems smarter for them to sell and then rent in the same area, which they love.

I agree, this seems a lot smarter. My comment about rental costs was not for new owners, but for existing owners. Between higher property taxes that pace the new values and the higher prices for flood, windstorm and fire/theft insurance, even places that people have owned and rented out for years will have to charge a lot more to recoup the additional costs. For my rental property, the taxes doubled in one year and my insurance has gone up 50%. I am selling for 3x what I paid for it 2 years ago, and if I don't sell it, I won't be able to cover the very modest mortgage I have on it, because the rental price I'd have to ask is more than the market will bear. I'm not looking to make money with the rent, just come close to covering my expenses. So I would not be surprised if more people aren't in that same boat. I think rentals, even from existing property owner landlords, are going to have to go up quite a bit.