UPDATE--Nature Coast -- Hernando, Citrus, Levy, Dixie...

[dixiebreeze]

I know Dixie.. I'm sorry if my comment there sounded smart.. It wasn't meant to be..

I know it wasn't, John. No problem.

[dixiebreeze]

Check this out Big Benders:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

Outflow at Tampa Bay now.

[seaswing]

What effects will the big bend area get if she comes in as forecasted?

[dixiebreeze]

What effects will the big bend area get if she comes in as forecasted?

If she doesn't vary from the Port Charlotte area target, possibly winds of up to 30 mph. If she tracks up central Fla. from there, we'll get a lot more.

I truly am worried she may go as far north as Tampa.

[seaswing]

Yes, a Tampa hit will definitely affect us. so what is your thinking Dixie? haven't heard much on you thoughts?

[dixiebreeze]

Yes, a Tampa hit will definitely affect us. so what is your thinking Dixie? haven't heard much on you thoughts?

I think this is a tough one for even the experts to forecast. Max Mayfield said today anywhere from Tampa south, though they expect it to veer toward the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area. I hope not -- I have family who went through Charley last year in Punta Gorda.

[dixiebreeze]

We are now getting a lot of thunder, lightening and light rain from Wilma's outflow! Anyone else?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg

[Josephine96]

Some areas north of me got some rain earlier.. but apparently nothing here..

[seaswing]

nothing here but I am north of you. Just very warm and sticky...still 81 degrees. We have been having upper 50's at night lately.

[joseph01]

I have always enjoyed your threads, Dixiebreeze, and I decided to post my first prediction on your thread. For better or worse.

I think there is more uncertainty in the forecast track, than is being articulated publically. I believe that the trough that was initially, and still expected, to drag Wilma towards Florida, has failed somewhat. However, there seems to be a trailing reinforcement of the trough that is taking up the slack, and I think that it may create a weakness in the ridge, to the extent that Wilma might make landfall even further north than the current forecast track suggests.

Is crow easier to get down with a lot of salt, or some other spice?

[seaswing]

I have always enjoyed your threads, Dixiebreeze, and I decided to post my first prediction on your thread. For better or worse.

I think there is more uncertainty in the forecast track, than is being articulated publically. I believe that the trough that was initially, and still expected, to drag Wilma towards Florida, has failed somewhat. However, there seems to be a trailing reinforcement of the trough that is taking up the slack, and I think that it may create a weakness in the ridge, to the extent that Wilma might make landfall even further north than the current forecast track suggests.

Is crow easier to get down with a lot of salt, or some other spice?

Hi neighbor! don't know about the crow thing...I try not to say what I think because I am certainly no pro met but I have had that feeling of a more northerly tract today myself. Evidently, Dixie does too. I wouldn't DARE say that in the general population though We are having a rain shower right now, is Gainesville?

[joseph01]

I have always enjoyed your threads, Dixiebreeze, and I decided to post my first prediction on your thread. For better or worse.

I think there is more uncertainty in the forecast track, than is being articulated publically. I believe that the trough that was initially, and still expected, to drag Wilma towards Florida, has failed somewhat. However, there seems to be a trailing reinforcement of the trough that is taking up the slack, and I think that it may create a weakness in the ridge, to the extent that Wilma might make landfall even further north than the current forecast track suggests.

Is crow easier to get down with a lot of salt, or some other spice?

Hi neighbor! don't know about the crow thing...I try not to say what I think because I am certainly no pro met but I have had that feeling of a more northerly tract today myself. Evidently, Dixie does too. I wouldn't DARE say that in the general population though We are having a rain shower right now, is Gainesville?

Yes, we are getting rain right now. (I'm in High springs as well) couple miles south of O'leno, But my point was, the tropical moisture constantly making it's way north all day, as dixiebreeze has been saying all day, is maybe the avenue that will lead to Wilma possibly coming further north than expected.

[Rainband]

Pressure still high here

[seaswing]

I have always enjoyed your threads, Dixiebreeze, and I decided to post my first prediction on your thread. For better or worse.

I think there is more uncertainty in the forecast track, than is being articulated publically. I believe that the trough that was initially, and still expected, to drag Wilma towards Florida, has failed somewhat. However, there seems to be a trailing reinforcement of the trough that is taking up the slack, and I think that it may create a weakness in the ridge, to the extent that Wilma might make landfall even further north than the current forecast track suggests.

Is crow easier to get down with a lot of salt, or some other spice?

Hi neighbor! don't know about the crow thing...I try not to say what I think because I am certainly no pro met but I have had that feeling of a more northerly tract today myself. Evidently, Dixie does too. I wouldn't DARE say that in the general population though We are having a rain shower right now, is Gainesville?

Yes, we are getting rain right now. (I'm in High springs as well) couple miles south of O'leno, But my point was, the tropical moisture constantly making it's way north all day, as dixiebreeze has been saying all day, is maybe the avenue that will lead to Wilma possibly coming further north than expected.

I think it is possible myself, a wobble here and a wobble there can actually move it more northward. And as you probably know, a cat 1 or 2 in Tampa can cause us some bad weather here. I remember Jeanne last year...as she skirted up the coast, we actually got much worse rainbands than G'vlle. In fact, I believe we got the east side of the eye. Little rumbles of thunder to my west. I live right inside town (High Springs) but used to live about 1 miles south of Oleno many years ago! Hey, did you happen to see the forecast for Monday? (it may change if Wima slows down) but the high predicted was 69 and the low Monday night is supposed to be 48. I couldn't believe my eyes! I am really looking forward to that!

[dixiebreeze]

I'm a big believer in following the pattern and the outflow pattern all day has been (and still is), NNE. I do with she would speed up a bit, though, and get the suspense over with!

[MetsIslesNoles]

FYI, this thread title is confusing... the Tallahassee area is considered The Big Bend.

[seaswing]

FYI, this thread title is confusing... the Tallahassee area is considered The Big Bend.

I would say so.....

[seaswing]

Big Bend readers as well as central Florida readers should take a look at Nexrad's post in the pro met area. Interesting how he explains Wilma's disbursement and how we could be affected like Hurricane Frances. Hmmm don't like that scenerio

[skysummit]

I'm still....for 4 or 5 days now....am calling for a Cedar Key hit, or somewhere in the Big Bend. Even though none of the models ever showed this, I'm sticking with my gut.

[seaswing]

I'm still....for 4 or 5 days now....am calling for a Cedar Key hit, or somewhere in the Big Bend. Even though none of the models ever showed this, I'm sticking with my gut.

Sky, I am curious, I know you have been saying this since the start. Why do you feel this way?