Hurricane Forcasting Dynamics - Read This

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sprink52
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Hurricane Forcasting Dynamics - Read This

#1 Postby sprink52 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:42 am

I think that all of the pro mets do an outstanding job of applying their educated skills to their jobs. The computer models used in developing the forcast that are furnished to the public are important tools to the forcasters. What becomes frustrating to the forcasters and trickles down to the public is the delay in the flow of new information. I think that it's only fair to observe that when the storm dynamics are stagnant that the flow of new forcast information also becomes stagnant. The professional meteorologist will only forcast what his tools, training and experience dictate.

It is frustrating for the public to have stagnant information relative to life altering weather events. We have become an information hungry and driven society. I am sure it is even more frustrating for these weather professionals not to be able to provide a continous flow of factual information.

In the case of Wilma, the storm has gone from a minor tropical storm to the most significant Atlantic tropical cyclone (meteorlogically) in history in a 36 hour period. Now we have a storm that is not performing as was anticipated. The information is not fresh and stimulating but is now rather boring.

The watching of and waiting for these storms stimulates our senses as long as something is happening. When the dynamics slow down we loose interest. DON'T !!

What I hear the mets say is this: Do not turn your back on this storm. Make and complete your plans now. When Wilma begins to move toward Florida the movement will be sudden, deliberate and things will change over a matter of hours, not days. Wilma is at this point like a snake in the grass waiting to strike and when she does it may be deadly.

Just my thoughts and ramblings. Be smart. Be safe. 8-)
Last edited by sprink52 on Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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sprink52
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#2 Postby sprink52 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:21 am

Also...I have heard a few people today remark that "it's only going to be a cat 2 or 3...no big deal" Hey, go get in the back of a pick up and have the driver run up to about 125 mph in the rain and then you stand up!!! Then come back and tell me it's only going to be a cat 2 or 3 no big deal!!! :grr:
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#3 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:58 am

Yeah, Pro Mets are not really to blame for mistakes in forcasting. Its the dang models. :lol:
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#4 Postby Loring » Thu Oct 20, 2005 3:13 pm

No one is to 'blame' for forecasting errors.


I dont ever recall hearing of universities issuing crystal balls to meteorology graduates ;)


Besides, most mets can pick up on a flawed model, like what the GFDL was doing earlier/last night. :D
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