Phil Ferro WSVN "7 News" Met (Mia)

[terpfan]

Seems to be insisting this AM (although he hedges slightly - almost imperceptibly) that Wilma will make landfall on the west coast of Fla as a CAT 1 on late Sunday early Monday in spite of the fact that he has Wilma off the coast on Saturday at CAT 3.

Based upon that assumption, he is telling viewers that we will experience only tropical storm force winds on the SE coast. Doesn't that seem a little irresponsible at this point?

[k-man]

He's probably right on the money....

When Wilma finally does get picked up she may have already clipped the YP and then will be fighting lots of shear on her trip over to Fla. I think Cat 1 is likely at this point...thankfully.

[terpfan]

I hope he is right...hate to have folks let their guard down with a Cat 3 24 hours out!

[Ground_Zero_92]

While shear will definately effect Wilma as the front picks her up, he should not be broadcasting that the region would only get Cat 1 conditions 3-4 days out. A lot can happen before landfall, and intensity forecasting is not our best science.

As far as TV mets here, I'd stick with Brian Norcross on CBS4. Norcross has been a staple since before Andrew and is well respected.

[terpfan]

Agreed re: B Norcross, he has no peer in the SFla market.

[inotherwords]

Agreed re: B Norcross, he has no peer in the SFla market.

I agree, too. He's very impressive. Anyone know what he's saying this a.m.?

[terpfan]

No Norcross in the morning unless landfall is imminent. We'll hear from him this evening. I guess they like to keep him rested in case they need him for 24 hours straight ala Andrew!

[jlauderdal]

Seems to be insisting this AM (although he hedges slightly - almost imperceptibly) that Wilma will make landfall on the west coast of Fla as a CAT 1 on late Sunday early Monday in spite of the fact that he has Wilma off the coast on Saturday at CAT 3.

Based upon that assumption, he is telling viewers that we will experience only tropical storm force winds on the SE coast. Doesn't that seem a little irresponsible at this point?

Phil Ferro has not been impressive this season, he could be right but you are better off with Norcoross or even Noe. FYI, here is Elita's "discussion" this morning from the wsvn.com website.

Discussion:
As of 2:30am this morning Wilma has become an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. This strong and powerful hurricane is moving west-northwest at 8mph over the western Caribbean sea. It is expected to impact Florida's west coast. Direct landfall is not known at this time since these storms tend to wobble and can go anywhere between the cone of uncertainty.

A cold front will come off Texas and push Wilma our way including another steering factor which is a high pressure system that is nudging into the Florida peninsula.

Right now the forecast is on track and we are closely monitoring Wilma's every move.

Everyone should keep an eye on the progress of Wilma. Stay tuned to my latest forecast only on one station Channel 7 news.

Have a great day!


Elita Loresca
Weather Anchor
WSVN 7

[terpfan]

My beef was primarily with Ferro's graphics which, although he said "could be stronger", show a hurricane symbol crossing the state with a big fat "1" on it. Further, the graphics that immediately followed those depicted the effects of a deteriorating Cat 1/tropical storm on the SE coast...sometimes viewers see the graphic, but don't hear the hedge "but it could be stronger." I just think when you are using graphics you should be more conservative, i.e., those who advocate the elimination of the line through the cone....

[jlauderdal]

My beef was primarily with Ferro's graphics which, although he said "could be stronger", show a hurricane symbol crossing the state with a big fat "1" on it. Further, the graphics that immediately followed those depicted the effects of a deteriorating Cat 1/tropical storm on the SE coast...sometimes viewers see the graphic, but don't hear the hedge "but it could be stronger." I just think when you are using graphics you should be more conservative, i.e., those who advocate the elimination of the line through the cone....

kamla was very good but he is in the big house, honestly i don't watch phil ferro. norcross is the only game in town for me.

[Maestro]

Seems to be insisting this AM (although he hedges slightly - almost imperceptibly) that Wilma will make landfall on the west coast of Fla as a CAT 1 on late Sunday early Monday in spite of the fact that he has Wilma off the coast on Saturday at CAT 3.

Based upon that assumption, he is telling viewers that we will experience only tropical storm force winds on the SE coast. Doesn't that seem a little irresponsible at this point?

I don't understand how stating your opinion is irresponsible. Should every forcast state that a without a doubt a Cat. 5 hurricane is coming? I'm reminded of a story about someone crying wolf...Gloom and doom would more irresponsible.

Would it be more advisable to have all of S. Florida evacuated so a bus full of elderly evacuees can explode?

[terpfan]

Hate to say it, but I agree that Kamal was a good met too.

[x-y-no]

Seems to be insisting this AM (although he hedges slightly - almost imperceptibly) that Wilma will make landfall on the west coast of Fla as a CAT 1 on late Sunday early Monday in spite of the fact that he has Wilma off the coast on Saturday at CAT 3.

Based upon that assumption, he is telling viewers that we will experience only tropical storm force winds on the SE coast. Doesn't that seem a little irresponsible at this point?

He may be right, but yes that is irresponsible. The prospect of Cat 3 at landfall is too serious to ignore. Prepare for that, and anything less would be all to the good.

BTW, not saying this will happen, but here's the 6Z GFDL windfield during landfall (yes, those are Cat-3 winds through the upper Keys, Biscayne Bay all the way through metropolitan Dade and Broward):

[jlauderdal]

Seems to be insisting this AM (although he hedges slightly - almost imperceptibly) that Wilma will make landfall on the west coast of Fla as a CAT 1 on late Sunday early Monday in spite of the fact that he has Wilma off the coast on Saturday at CAT 3.

Based upon that assumption, he is telling viewers that we will experience only tropical storm force winds on the SE coast. Doesn't that seem a little irresponsible at this point?

He may be right, but yes that is irresponsible. The prospect of Cat 3 at landfall is too serious to ignore. Prepare for that, and anything less would be all to the good.

BTW, not saying this will happen, but here's the 6Z GFDL windfield during landfall (yes, those are Cat-3 winds through the upper Keys, Biscayne Bay all the way through metropolitan Dade and Broward):

He can make any forecast he wants, if that's the way he sees it then so be it. if people don't like it then they won't watch and he will get fired. There is no script they are supposed to follow.

[x-y-no]

He can make any forecast he wants, if that's the way he sees it then so be it. if people don't like it then they won't watch and he will get fired. There is no script they are supposed to follow.

OK, fine ... and we're free to say his forecast is irresponsible.

What's your beef?

[Maestro]

He can make any forecast he wants, if that's the way he sees it then so be it. if people don't like it then they won't watch and he will get fired. There is no script they are supposed to follow.

OK, fine ... and we're free to say his forecast is irresponsible.

What's your beef?

The beef is simple. If it is an irresponsible forecast, then what is a responsible forecast? Should he just fall in line and not express his opinion? If a Cat. 1 storm forecast is irresponsible does that mean that the only responsible forecast is a Cat. 5?
OR, does that mean in our 'sue everyone' society that somehow the weather man is 'responsible' for whatever happens.

[jax]

He can make any forecast he wants, if that's the way he sees it then so be it. if people don't like it then they won't watch and he will get fired. There is no script they are supposed to follow.

OK, fine ... and we're free to say his forecast is irresponsible.

What's your beef?

The beef is simple. If it is an irresponsible forecast, then what is a responsible forecast? Should he just fall in line and not express his opinion? If a Cat. 1 storm forecast is irresponsible does that mean that the only responsible forecast is a Cat. 5?
OR, does that mean in our 'sue everyone' society that somehow the weather man is 'responsible' for whatever happens.

the way it's looking... he may be EXACTLY right...

[jlauderdal]

He can make any forecast he wants, if that's the way he sees it then so be it. if people don't like it then they won't watch and he will get fired. There is no script they are supposed to follow.

OK, fine ... and we're free to say his forecast is irresponsible.

What's your beef?

i dont have the beef with him at all. other people on the thread do. I agree with you, if we dont like it we can call him irresponsible or don't watch.

[ladyhawk790]

I thought this might be something everyone should know if you didn't already..

House votes to cut NOAA budget by $50 million
NWS May Take $15 million Hit,

http://www.governmententerprise.com/news/165702845

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/conte ... _0421.html

http://www.nwseo.org/html/library/newsl ... tters2.htm

http://www.burntorangereport.com/mt/arc ... o_pri.html

[x-y-no]

The beef is simple. If it is an irresponsible forecast, then what is a responsible forecast? Should he just fall in line and not express his opinion? If a Cat. 1 storm forecast is irresponsible does that mean that the only responsible forecast is a Cat. 5?
OR, does that mean in our 'sue everyone' society that somehow the weather man is 'responsible' for whatever happens.

Who said anything about forecasting a Cat 5? I don't see how you derive the idea that one extreme is any more responsible than the other from anything I or anyone else has said in this thread.

To answer your question - the responsible thing would be to emphasize the range of uncertainty. It's fine for him to opine that he expects a decline to Cat 1 before landfall (provided he has some sound meteorological resoning for saying that). But he ought to put heavy emphasis on the fact that much guidance and metorological reasoning suggests that the landfall might be at Cat 3, and that if the path is southerly enough even the SE coast could see major hurricane conditions.

Given the level of uncertainty right now, it's grossly irresponsible for a broadcast Met, whom people may rely on for life-or-death decisions, to even imply that the SE coast will not see more that TS conditions. In the end that may be what we get, but nobody but God could say that with confidence right now.