Wilma #3: Tampa southward on the look out

[Josephine96]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST
HURRICANE WILMA
NJN WEATHER CENTER
935 AM THURS OCT 19TH 2005

Hurricane Wilma is continuing to gradually weaken this morning after her record breaking day yesterday, however there is a chance she may return to a Cat 5 briefly before striking the Yucatan.

Wilma is a compact storm with a very small eye. Her windfield and such may actually begin to expand though as she weakens, or when she is picked up by the trough that will steer her towards Florida when she enters to GOM.

Wilma is expected to possibly just brush the Yucatan. My forecast has most of her eastern convection going over the Yucatan, but the eye will graze the coastline. This may cause her to drop down from a 5,4 maybe down to a 3.

When Wilma enters the GOM, she is "forecast" to make a sharp NE turn towards Florida. I believe she will take her time making this turn, and become a factor for someone further up the coast then around Naples.

All those in Central and South Florida should continue to closely monitor Wilma especially as she gets closer and closer.

Landfall of Wilma is expected to be sometime during the day on Sunday.

Here is my forecast on Wilma:
Today: Approaching the Yucatan. Max winds: 155 mph
Friday: Grazing the Yucatan, losing some strength. Max winds: 140 mph
Saturday: Watches/warnings up for Florida, nervously watching from Tampa southward. Max winds: 135 mph
Sunday: Making landfall during the day on Sunday in SW Florida. Max winds: 130 mph
Monday: Accelerating into the Atlantic. Max winds: 100 mph

Track and intensity forecasts are subject to errors, some by as many as 100's of miles.

[Josephine96]

as always.. comments are welcomed

[tampastorm]

Sounds "Very anxious" to say the least. It seems we are back 50 years when we just cant forecast whats going to happen. We are so use to the NHC being so confident.

[Josephine96]

LOL yes that we are Tampa..

[gtalum]

Track consistency for 48+ hours sopunds like confidence to me. In fact, the only time I heard the NHC mention a lack of confidence was yesterday when GFDL went haywire on the 12z run.

[Josephine96]

We just gotta wait and see what happens, GT

[inotherwords]

Friday: Grazing the Yucatan, losing some strength. Max winds: 140 mph

The current track and the more dependable models put it at more than just "grazing."

"Grazing" is what was supposed to happen if it hadn't moved so far westward as it has.

[Josephine96]

Well.. Maybe grazing wasn't the right word to use.. But I guess, whatever happens, happens. We're all allowed to be wrong..

[inotherwords]

Well, I think what happens with its interaction w/the Yucatan will be key to its future, so it's not exactly a minor point here.

[Josephine96]

True.. It could determine how far north of a turn Wilma makes and where she indeed makes landfall..

[inotherwords]

True.. It could determine how far north of a turn Wilma makes and where she indeed makes landfall..

Yesterday all the pro mets were saying the farther west it goes, the more chance the FL track will be farther south.

[Josephine96]

or how far south Wilma is when she makes landfall.. Forgive me for not covering all the perameters