0Z Guidance...A Big Mess

[MWatkins]

Whelp...we are seeing the cost of not flying the synoptic drop mission tonight...the NOGAPS and GFS spread has increased significantly...with the NOGAPS model now calling for a landfall near..you guessed it...TAMPA in 96 hours...and the GFS leaving the hurricane hung up over the Yucatan for an extended period before finally coming across the FL straights in the late 5 day period.

NOGAPS:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=096

GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_120m.gif

Oh well...guess we are going to have to wait for another 2 forecast cycles to see what may happen.

Of course the concensus between these 2 models would land right on the existing NHC track...si if I were them I would meerly update/extend the existing track at 5AM...

One thing about the GFS...it appears to have initialized the 0Z soundings in FL better than NOGAPS....

Discuss...

MW

[CronkPSU]

you would think after katrina/rita and the 04 storms, congress would be dumping tons more money into weather research...can't believe we don't have planes flying in and out of there pretty much non stop with a cat 5 possibly 72 hours away from the US

[n o o d l z]

I'm going with the NOGAPS on this one...other than a slight northerly shift, its been pretty consistent. As well, I've been forecasting a Tampa-area landfall for quite some time, and I've seen no real reason to change that prediction. I don't really know what to think of the GFS, I don't see how it can go from predicting a trough will pull a hurricane 90 degrees to the ENE, to saying the trough won't pick it up...just doesn't make sense.

[yoda]

The GFS may have initialized better, but its track of Wilma and Wilma's sudden disappareance leaves me a bit skeptical of its output.

[NFLnut]

It looks to me that the landfall of the NOGAPS is closer to Ft Myers & Naples, not Tampa.

[MWatkins]

It looks to me that the landfall of the NOGAPS is closer to Ft Myers & Naples, not Tampa.

The FNMOC site is having all sorts of problems with their model imagery...persistance is key...here is the URL I was able to load after getting reimaged stuff from the 12Z run:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=096

MW

[jim09091]

It looks to me that the landfall of the NOGAPS is closer to Ft Myers & Naples, not Tampa.

it appears to me right over tampa bay

[jim09091]

It looks to me that the landfall of the NOGAPS is closer to Ft Myers & Naples, not Tampa.

The FNMOC site is having all sorts of problems with their model imagery...persistance is key...here is the URL I was able to load after getting reimaged stuff from the 12Z run:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=096

MW

true, i actually just noticed this problem looking at it a few times. got it over tampa a few times and then over ft. myers on a reload.

[nequad]

The NOGAPS goes on to show landfall over the Outer Banks and then again near NYC. Below is the 84, 96, 108, and 120 hour forecasts from the 00Z NGP...

[nequad]

I meant to say shows landfall over the Outer Banks after a first landfall just south of Tampa. You can right click the images to get a better view.

[Duffy]

oh man if that verifies, New England is going to get HAMMERED!

[nequad]

It goes from off SC to NYC in 12 hours...exploding as an extratropical bomb.

Unreal...if this verifies the media hype will go through the roof.

[thunderchief]

you would think after katrina/rita and the 04 storms, congress would be dumping tons more money into weather research...can't believe we don't have planes flying in and out of there pretty much non stop with a cat 5 possibly 72 hours away from the US

youd think so wouldnt you...

but these are politicians...

[AJC3]

Have a look see...




full res....

http://home.cfl.rr.com/tcrist/images/00Z_NGP.GIF

[Bgator]

Why dont we stick with Florida first, as sson as it gets passed us then u can worry, but the models are really screwy now, so lets just wait!

[Bgator]

Have a look see...

On this its almost Sub tropical looking, the winds are to the souh and displaced from the center!

[nequad]

There's not enough time worry about the rest of the coast after this thing hits Florida. Once it crosses the peninsula it will be in New England in 18 hours or less.

Can you say the Long Island express? Granted...this is not set in stone, but the model guidance has been trending this way for a while now. We all need to begin to undestand what is unfolding before us.

[nequad]

736
WHXX04 KWBC 200523
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 84.0 300./ 7.0
6 18.2 84.8 284./ 7.8
12 18.6 85.4 298./ 7.3
18 19.2 85.9 322./ 7.5
24 19.8 86.5 319./ 8.6
30 20.1 87.2 294./ 6.8
36 20.5 87.4 331./ 4.8
42 21.0 87.8 320./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.9 302./ 1.2
54 21.2 87.9 340./ 1.5
60 21.2 87.9 90./ .7
66 21.3 87.8 38./ 1.1
72 21.3 87.6 90./ 1.9
78 21.2 87.2 96./ 3.6
84 21.5 86.9 54./ 3.4
90 21.6 86.4 76./ 4.9
96 22.1 85.5 60./ 9.5
102 22.5 84.4 71./11.3
108 23.3 83.2 57./13.8
114 24.7 81.3 53./21.6
120 27.3 79.2 39./32.2
126 30.2 77.0 37./34.7

[Bgator]

736
WHXX04 KWBC 200523
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 20

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.0 84.0 300./ 7.0
6 18.2 84.8 284./ 7.8
12 18.6 85.4 298./ 7.3
18 19.2 85.9 322./ 7.5
24 19.8 86.5 319./ 8.6
30 20.1 87.2 294./ 6.8
36 20.5 87.4 331./ 4.8
42 21.0 87.8 320./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.9 302./ 1.2
54 21.2 87.9 340./ 1.5
60 21.2 87.9 90./ .7
66 21.3 87.8 38./ 1.1
72 21.3 87.6 90./ 1.9
78 21.2 87.2 96./ 3.6
84 21.5 86.9 54./ 3.4
90 21.6 86.4 76./ 4.9
96 22.1 85.5 60./ 9.5
102 22.5 84.4 71./11.3
108 23.3 83.2 57./13.8
114 24.7 81.3 53./21.6
120 27.3 79.2 39./32.2
126 30.2 77.0 37./34.7

Thats basically same as last run....So ill stay with GFDL for now since its basicallyt been consistent!(Xept one run)

[nequad]

UKMET is still out to sea. Gator...actually the GFDL is a little slower than the previous run...but the track is similar. Also...at the end of the run the model turns Wilma more to the north and very fast...indicating a simialr solution to the NGP...just a little slower, but in the end they get to the same place.





HURRICANE WILMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.9N 84.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL242005



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 20.10.2005 17.9N 84.0W INTENSE

12UTC 20.10.2005 18.7N 85.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.10.2005 19.7N 85.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.10.2005 20.6N 86.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.10.2005 21.2N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.10.2005 21.8N 86.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.10.2005 22.1N 86.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.10.2005 23.1N 85.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.10.2005 24.5N 82.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.10.2005 26.8N 77.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.10.2005 30.7N 72.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 25.10.2005 37.5N 64.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.10.2005 43.7N 56.0W EXTRA-TROPICAL