As we await the 18z GFDL

[Brent]

This is total speculation and i dont even believ it but what if this ends up being a SE FLA event, If it goes thru everglades no one will be truly effected till it reaches SE FLA, and if the GFDL stays near the same SE FLA would get hammered, I dont want a major cane!@

Well the 18z GFS showed the same track...

I hope they aren't onto something.

[greeng13]

just out of curiosity...

i know we are discussing the GFDL but how reliable is the LBAR i never see anyone talking about it here.

[pgoss11]

You are right Brent- people in SNE are so complacent about hurricanes- Most people living here have never experienced one and the ones who have experienced only have experienced very weak storms. It could be a big disaster in the making, but it's a long way off and maybe things will change

[CHRISTY]

at 5 oclock there 4 models that had it under cuba now theres only 2?doesn't the NHC use the gfdl as one of there main models they look at! the fact that the gfdl is now back towards florida this cannot be good news for south florida well see if this continues....

[SkeetoBite]

GFDL sets down the pipe and gets back to work:

[DESTRUCTION5]

510
WHXX04 KWBC 192330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 83.3 295./ 6.0
6 17.7 83.9 297./ 6.2
12 18.2 84.8 300./10.1
18 18.4 85.4 286./ 5.9
24 18.9 85.9 315./ 7.6
30 19.7 86.3 333./ 8.1
36 20.1 86.7 320./ 5.6
42 20.6 86.9 335./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.0 348./ 4.4
54 21.4 87.1 351./ 3.8
60 21.6 86.9 34./ 2.1
66 21.9 86.8 32./ 3.1
72 22.1 86.3 68./ 5.2
78 22.4 85.6 62./ 6.9
84 22.7 84.9 70./ 7.0
90 23.3 84.0 57./10.5
96 24.1 82.7 59./13.9
102 25.5 80.8 51./22.2
108 27.9 78.7 42./30.4
114 31.3 76.1 38./41.1
120 36.2 73.2 30./53.6
126 41.4 71.6 18./53.9

Bingo...Now what Skeptics?

You sound like you want this storm.....

Nope just trying to prove a pt..GFS is exactly its Initials...Good for Sh1t..

[Rainband]

The NHC says the forecast track is in doubt. Thats who I believe, this thing could go anywhere. No trof to pick it up and move it across florida. Seems more likely to go into the Yucatan. Anything is possible though.

[Rainband]

510
WHXX04 KWBC 192330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 83.3 295./ 6.0
6 17.7 83.9 297./ 6.2
12 18.2 84.8 300./10.1
18 18.4 85.4 286./ 5.9
24 18.9 85.9 315./ 7.6
30 19.7 86.3 333./ 8.1
36 20.1 86.7 320./ 5.6
42 20.6 86.9 335./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.0 348./ 4.4
54 21.4 87.1 351./ 3.8
60 21.6 86.9 34./ 2.1
66 21.9 86.8 32./ 3.1
72 22.1 86.3 68./ 5.2
78 22.4 85.6 62./ 6.9
84 22.7 84.9 70./ 7.0
90 23.3 84.0 57./10.5
96 24.1 82.7 59./13.9
102 25.5 80.8 51./22.2
108 27.9 78.7 42./30.4
114 31.3 76.1 38./41.1
120 36.2 73.2 30./53.6
126 41.4 71.6 18./53.9

Bingo...Now what Skeptics?

You sound like you want this storm.....

Nope just trying to prove a pt..GFS is exactly its Initials...Good for Sh1t..

Here I thought the gfdl ran off the same grid.

[Bgator]

The NHC says the forecast track is in doubt. Thats who I believe, this thing could go anywhere. No trof to pick it up and move it across florida. Seems more likely to go into the Yucatan. Anything is possible though.

THE ONLY reason they were in doubt is there most reliable model the GFDL did something funky, but that seemed to be a mis Trial, If models come back into agreement they shuld have a good handle!

[DESTRUCTION5]

510
WHXX04 KWBC 192330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE WILMA 24L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.4 83.3 295./ 6.0
6 17.7 83.9 297./ 6.2
12 18.2 84.8 300./10.1
18 18.4 85.4 286./ 5.9
24 18.9 85.9 315./ 7.6
30 19.7 86.3 333./ 8.1
36 20.1 86.7 320./ 5.6
42 20.6 86.9 335./ 5.7
48 21.1 87.0 348./ 4.4
54 21.4 87.1 351./ 3.8
60 21.6 86.9 34./ 2.1
66 21.9 86.8 32./ 3.1
72 22.1 86.3 68./ 5.2
78 22.4 85.6 62./ 6.9
84 22.7 84.9 70./ 7.0
90 23.3 84.0 57./10.5
96 24.1 82.7 59./13.9
102 25.5 80.8 51./22.2
108 27.9 78.7 42./30.4
114 31.3 76.1 38./41.1
120 36.2 73.2 30./53.6
126 41.4 71.6 18./53.9

Bingo...Now what Skeptics?

You sound like you want this storm.....

Nope just trying to prove a pt..GFS is exactly its Initials...Good for Sh1t..

Here I thought the gfdl ran off the same grid.

Exactly its what caused the GFDL turn to drugs..

[T'Bonz]

GFDL sets down the pipe and gets back to work:

Dear GFDL. Today is not April 1st. Do not do this and run away saying "psyche!"

Signed, S. Florida.

[Canelaw99]

LOL

Actually, it would be quite okay for it to run away - far, far, FAR away from here

[Damar91]

Being from South Florida, I think I liked the models before the "hiccup".

[SkeetoBite]

BAM Brother decide to get back to work too. Keeping their loop over the Yucatan though...

A98E shifts West, closer to LBAR

[SkeetoBite]

BAM Brother decide to get back to work too. Keeping their loop over the Yucatan though...

A98E shifts West, closer to LBAR

[dougjp]

I thought the reason NHC was in doubt, and had the afternoon news conference, was because of the FSU which by the way holds to their earlier track. I was watching the news conference too..... Must have got my weather god forecast models mixed up, what was I smoking??

[Brent]

The NHC says the forecast track is in doubt. Thats who I believe, this thing could go anywhere. No trof to pick it up and move it across florida. Seems more likely to go into the Yucatan. Anything is possible though.

There's a trough... it's just not arrived where it can influence Wilma yet(and wasn't forecast to be).

I'm not saying the trough WILL pick it up... but there is a trough.

and the models are all back to having it picked up, so I think the doubt has gone away... for now.

[nequad]

Nope just trying to prove a pt..GFS is exactly its Initials...Good for Sh1t..

That's pretty funny considering the GFS showed the exact same scenario as the 18Z GFDL.

I wish people would stop making stupid blanket statements about everything.

This model sucks, the season is over...etc...etc...etc. Sheesh.

[CHRISTY]

i think the track maybe shifted further south into miami dade.....

[Canelaw99]

It did for the recent GFDL and GFS Christy. Models can still change, but all of S. FL needs to be paying attention.