Blitzer Says Mayfield standing by on CNN - Weather Bulletin

[Vandora]

Max is saying the cofidence is low, but they do have it taking more time, and hitting FL as a lower 'cane. But he doesn't sound like he's too sure.

[Canelaw99]

Max is basically saying that the timing has changed - the track is slower now. This isn't good though - he said that right now it's the "lowest confidence" than they usually like to have 5 days out.

[cjrciadt]

Show the SLOSH Max!!!!!!!!!1

[jasons2k]

Can someone please post what he says I can't find CNN on my T.V. I have Directv but I have no idea where CNN is.

Yes, someone please be more descriptive. "Track and Timeline change" doesn't really tell us much. Thanks.

[Brent]

Can someone please post what he says I can't find CNN on my T.V. I have Directv but I have no idea where CNN is.

Yes, someone please be more descriptive. "Track and Timeline change" doesn't really tell us much. Thanks.

It's the same track... just a little slower.

See here: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[Houstonia]

This from CNN

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/10/19/wilma/index.html

Hurricane center: Deadly Wilma eyeing Florida
Category 5 storm prompts Keys evacuation
Wednesday, October 19, 2005; Posted: 3:37 p.m. EDT (19:37 GMT)


MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- The nation's chief hurricane forecaster said Wednesday if Hurricane Wilma hits Florida this weekend as predicted, it could result in many deaths and a tremendous storm surge.

Officials ordered non-residents in the Florida Keys to evacuate in advance of the dangerous Category 5 storm -- which is off Mexico.

"We had well over a thousand lives lost in Katrina," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Florida. "If Wilma comes into the Florida coast as a Category 3 or 4 hurricane, that potential for large loss of life is with us here with this hurricane."

Forecasters said the storm -- with 165 mph sustained winds -- registered the lowest-recorded barometric pressure of any Atlantic basin hurricane -- an indication of its intensity. (Watch Mayfield's warning about Hurricane Wilma -- 3:19)

Also this:
Hurricane Wilma, now a Category 5 storm in the western Caribbean, has the potential to cause loss of life in Florida comparable to that of Katrina, said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. Non-residents have been ordered to leave the Florida Keys. If Wilma is a Category 4 storm at landfall, storm surge could be 15 to 25 feet, Mayfield said

More at the above link...

[dcuevas]

Okay just heard..... Guess she's doing what she wants. I have a question.... If this slows... It can't be good for Tampa right? I mean it has to turn at some point. Sorry for rambling.

[k-man]

Max is basically saying that the timing has changed - the track is slower now. This isn't good though - he said that right now it's the "lowest confidence" than they usually like to have 5 days out.

Well, he also said that the longer it hangs out in the Carribbean Sea, the more likely it is that it will weaken. This is good news....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

part of his closing comments was that they have wilma sitting at the tip of the yucatan as well as off the new england coast in 5 days... pointing out the fact that the models have so diverged that they are having great difficulaties in knowing what to say right now. I think the biggest part fo holding the conference was to get everyone aware that it was not an easy one at all and that we should expect shifts and changes and that things are not in stone at all at this point.

[Canelaw99]

So far there really is no track change, just the timing. He's saying that as of Sat. afternoon, it could still be off the coast, west of the Keys rather than on shore somewhere. He's basically just explaining to everyone that there is uncertainty in their forecast right now, that's about it.

[Brent]

Max is basically saying that the timing has changed - the track is slower now. This isn't good though - he said that right now it's the "lowest confidence" than they usually like to have 5 days out.

Well, he also said that the longer it hangs out in the Carribbean Sea, the more likely it is that it will weaken. This is good news....

Only if it sits over the Yucatan or Cuba...

[cinlfla]

Can someone please post what he says I can't find CNN on my T.V. I have Directv but I have no idea where CNN is.

channel 202, what do watch all day channel 595?

I hardley ever watch T.V. but I checked to see what 595 was and no I don't watch that. I'm a girl why would I watch Playboy Oh an by the way thanks for letting me know which channel its on I am watching now.


Sorry for straying off topic

[k-man]

Max is basically saying that the timing has changed - the track is slower now. This isn't good though - he said that right now it's the "lowest confidence" than they usually like to have 5 days out.

Well, he also said that the longer it hangs out in the Carribbean Sea, the more likely it is that it will weaken. This is good news....

Only if it sits over the Yucatan or Cuba...

That's not what Dr. Mayfield said. He said that the longer it hangs around in the NW Carribbean, the more likely it is to weaken.

[tronbunny]

Brent, I think k-man was repeating what Max said...
Plus, the SSTs are lower north of YP than Wilma's current location.
I also think the shear is greater in the gulf, at least currently.

[Brent]

North of the Yucatan isn't the Caribbean.

Sounds like the media is trying to take what he said out of context.

[k-man]

:?: North of the Yucatan isn't the Caribbean.

Sounds like the media is trying to take what he said out of context.

No, I don't think so. The way that the CNN Met just explained it is that if it spins down there, over water, nearly stationary, that it is churning up the water. And so the very warm water near the surface is churned down and the Cane starts to pick up some cooler water....

[tronbunny]

I apologize, I took it to mean the slower it moves..period.
Also, I don't see any changes in the official NHC graphics or advisories from 2pm.

[Agua]

He compared Nogaps, GFDL and some other model showing the huge divergence in solutions whereby GFDL movement was very slow, leaving it around southwest tip of Cuba five days out, whereas Nogaps raced it off east of New England.

He emphasized the extremely low confidence in the present forecast track.

He said that as a result of the divergence, they were going to keep the same general track, but slow it down. The impression left with me was that it was simply a conservative compromise that didn't really represent much to hang a hat on other than they had significant models going all over the place.

Is that pretty fair?

[Mattie]

He also made mention of the front and whether or not it makes it into the GOM or not. . .

I'm guessing as an amatuer that the track could change significantly, but they don't want anyone to let their guard down - i.e., keeping the track current for now, only slower, in the event that the other models actually verify.

But I did question - what are projected conditions for a Sunday/Monday landfall instead of Saturday/Sunday landfall (i.e., trough).

[terstorm1012]

How often do they resample the atmosphere with the Gulfstream Jet? I know Jet Fuel is expensive but this seems like a situation for it....

or maybe modifiy some of those predator drones for weather collection, though i bet they probably wouldn't survive a 'cane...but they could be used for high-altitude atmospheric sampling so the models get a better handle on it.