BAMM & BAMD

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
darinh
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 5
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:50 pm

BAMM & BAMD

#1 Postby darinh » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:59 pm

The 18Z runs are showing something very, VERY similar the GFDL.

:roll: :roll:
0 likes   
Top
n o o d l z
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 96
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2005 6:47 pm
Location: Gainesville, FL

#2 Postby n o o d l z » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:02 pm

Apparently, its because BAM and GFDL models are based off of the GFS, and the GFS has it stalling over the Yucatan. I'd wait for the 00z models before getting too excited.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:04 pm

I think we are better off ignoring the BAMM and BAMD models as they are not designed to handle troughs ridges very well, especially in the Gulf Of Mexico and Lat. above 20N.
0 likes   
Top
jax

#4 Postby jax » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:08 pm

This is Big... Big shift happening in the models.
I wonder what's going on...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#5 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:08 pm

The BAMs do not deal well with situations where there is significant interaction with mid-latitude features. I'd dismiss them at this point.

The GFDL needs to be taken seriously, but given the strong difference with earlier runs, I wouldn't jump on that bandwagon yet. Lets see what the next two runs do.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

#6 Postby TS Zack » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:12 pm

The trend is your firend! :lol:

I would wait to go nuts at this point but they are definitely picking-up on something.
0 likes   
Top
N2Storms
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 324
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:37 pm
Location: Panama City, Florida

Tallahassee NWS AFD

#7 Postby N2Storms » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:15 pm

STILL RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THE LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS SLOWS THE HURRICANE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH IT LINGERING
NEAR THE YUCATAN THROUGH SUNDAY.



The NWS seems to be some credence to the GFS, however, they do go on to mention that the forecast track is still relatively the same, it's just slower than the previous forecasts have been...
0 likes   
Top
jax

#8 Postby jax » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:16 pm

TS Zack wrote:The trend is your firend! :lol:

I would wait to go nuts at this point but they are definitely picking-up on something.



NO !! I'm goin nut now! I'm not waiting!

:Pick:

anyway... this is very important and should not be disreagarded...
it's not an isolated model... they are starting to gang up on the
trend... again.... I wonder what's going on?
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 288 guests