Has Wilma peaked already?

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Stormcenter
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Has Wilma peaked already?

#1 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:57 am

Looking at the latest satellite images it looks like Wilma "MAY" have peaked already. The convection is not as impressive as it was the last 12 hours or so. Let's hope this is the beginning of a weaking trend. In my opinion I just can't see her going in as anything more than a Cat.2 or maybe 3 hurricane (which is bad enough)but this has been a CRAZY season so anything is possible.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#2 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:00 pm

Yep pretty sure she peaked.
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#3 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:03 pm

Cloud tops have warmed quite a bit, and it's going though an EWRC, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 4 when recon gets in there.

That said, there's no reason to think it won't intensify again after the replacement cycle is over.
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#4 Postby aerojad » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:03 pm

Eyewall replacement cycle.

Storm still has light shear in the Carribean and even warmer water temps to look forward to before it clears the Cuba / Yucatan goalposts.
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#5 Postby HurricaneGirl » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:06 pm

If it gets any stronger or the millibars go down. I'm going to call in for some Xanax. :eek:
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#6 Postby Myersgirl » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:09 pm

HurricaneGirl wrote:If it gets any stronger or the millibars go down. I'm going to call in for some Xanax. :eek:


good call... refill presription mediction....check :wink:
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#7 Postby jaxfladude » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:09 pm

Wishcast for rapid weakening by all means!!!!
Last edited by jaxfladude on Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8 Postby shaggy » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:17 pm

not sure -removed- for raid will help kill a hurricane but it works great on bugs!!!!!

ok all jokes aside i think pressure will be up to around 900mb in the next vortex and she has probably peaked but she will remain intense none the less!
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#9 Postby Eyes2theSkies » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:18 pm

I have plenty of xanax if you need i will overnight it. But I am in central Florida with all my family in Martin county including stubborn grandparents in a mobil home so i might need it myself
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#10 Postby ohiostorm » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:19 pm

Convection seems to always be higher at night. Plus its the EWRC thats causing her to look a little worse this afternoon. Give her time. Tomorrow will be a different story.
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#11 Postby Swimdude » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:33 pm

The pressure doesn't match the wind speed. I'm expecting a slight increase in wind speed and a decease from there on out.
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#12 Postby storms in NC » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:36 pm

This is not usual for a hurricane to go up to a cat 5 then drop back down. They don't last very long as a 5 maybe 24 hours at most. This one has time to rebuild back up to a cat5 before land fall. Un like katrina didn't have the time to close to land fall. But she was a big bad moma.

I feel that this is going to come in as a cat 4. The waters are very warm still there. Now if it were coming up on the east coast no it would make it to a cat 5 the waters are cooling off.
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jax

#13 Postby jax » Wed Oct 19, 2005 12:39 pm

I won't be surprised if she's a minimal Cat 3 at the turn
and a minimal Cat 2 at landfall... the sheer is gonna eat
her alive at the turn... JMHO
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#14 Postby storms in NC » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:01 pm

jax wrote:I won't be surprised if she's a minimal Cat 3 at the turn
and a minimal Cat 2 at landfall... the sheer is gonna eat
her alive at the turn... JMHO


I wouldn't bet on it. But you could be right
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#15 Postby markymark8 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:06 pm

jax wrote:I won't be surprised if she's a minimal Cat 3 at the turn
and a minimal Cat 2 at landfall... the sheer is gonna eat
her alive at the turn... JMHO
Yeah I would say a strong 3 or weak 3. The shear is going to be pretty tuff on her. I think she will be a major cane at landfall. The trough looks to be pretty stout at the moment and She has peaked for sure. 884mbs of pressure just cant happen again. If she never fully recovers with her ERC like Rita did then it is possible Wilma will be a strong cat 2 borderline 3. Floridas only hope is that she gets sheared apart bigtime and some dry air makes it into the core of Wilma or she never gets her act together like Rita did during her ERC. Since Wilma is so strong it is possible she might go down quick. The way this record breaking season has been and i might add has suprised me for sure she still could be a cat 4 at landfall and have no problems with her ERC. That would be Floridas luck.
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#16 Postby markymark8 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:07 pm

jax wrote:I won't be surprised if she's a minimal Cat 3 at the turn
and a minimal Cat 2 at landfall... the sheer is gonna eat
her alive at the turn... JMHO
Yeah I would say a strong 3 or weak 3. The shear is going to be pretty tuff on her. I think she will be a major cane at landfall. The trough looks to be pretty stout at the moment and She has peaked for sure. 884mbs of pressure just cant happen again. If she never fully recovers with her ERC like Rita did then it is possible Wilma will be a strong cat 2 borderline 3. Floridas only hope is that she gets sheared apart bigtime and some dry air makes it into the core of Wilma or she never gets her act together like Rita did during her ERC. Since Wilma is so strong it is possible she might go down quick. The way this record breaking season has been and i might add has suprised me for sure she still could be a cat 4 at landfall and have no problems with her ERC. That would be Floridas luck.
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