Floridians - prepare to see this in your neighborhoods

[dhweather]

These are from Waveland, Mississippi, after Hurricane Katrina came
through. The overwhelming odds are that near where Hurricane Wilma
makes landfall, that area will look like this too.


This house is still standing

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland1.jpg">

This car did not fare well

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland2.jpg">

Nor did this truck

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland3.jpg">

Near downtown 1

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland4.jpg">

Near downtown 2
<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland5.jpg">

Near downtown 3

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland6.jpg">

Near downtown 4

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland7.jpg">

The Wal-Mart has been gutted

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland8.jpg">

This new strip mall on Highway 603 was severly damaged

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/katrina/waveland9.jpg">

[terstorm1012]

Is that a small boat in that tree?!!?!?!

[dhweather]

Is that a small boat in that tree?!!?!?!

In these pictures, no. However there are plenty of boats in trees.

[Downdraft]

Appreciate the heads up but don't you think we saw all that last year? Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan ! I don't think many people in Florida need a reminder what hurricanes can do. Luckily though we have state and local governments that know when they need to get off their butts and make things happen. If the pictures were meant to be funny I didn't think so.

[dhweather]

These are from Pass Christian, Mississippi after Hurricane Katrina.

This is NORTH of the railroad tracks, over 1/2 mile inland.
That house floated into the Shell station.

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/shell.jpg">

Debris along the railroad tracks in Pass Christian.

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/tracks.jpg">

New condos with major structural failures, just North of Highway 90

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/condos.jpg">

Owners of a home leveled by Katrina still thankful

<img src="http://www.datasync.com/~magee/thankyou.jpg">

[digitaldahling]

dh wasn't attempting to be funny as you suggested. He was offering first hand experience and photos. In other words, don't wait, evacuate!
(Sounds a little Jessiesque...sorry.) And that was intended to be funny.

No one is suggesting that Floridians aren't smart enough to understand. Northern gulf coast folks are still very raw and full of suffering. He's just offering his knowledge and hopes everyone listens.

Hey, I'm paying attention (even though I don't have HK's "third eye") and I'm in Mobile.

[dhweather]

Appreciate the heads up but don't you think we saw all that last year? Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan ! I don't think many people in Florida need a reminder what hurricanes can do. Luckily though we have state and local governments that know when they need to get off their butts and make things happen. If the pictures were meant to be funny I didn't think so.

Yes, you had three hurricanes last year plus Ivan (Alabama landfall).
The only one that was a category five in its lifetime was Ivan, which
brought category five surge inland. The odds are that Wilma will bring
a category 5 surge in, and that's something that South Florida has not
seen in a long long time.

There is no comparison in the damage done between Katrina versus
Frances, Jeanne, and Charley. The price tag for Katrina will run over
$300 billion easily, about four times that of all of Florida's 2004 hurricanes
combined.

Finally, I see no humor in any of this. I want people to be prepared
to save their lives, and what to expect in the aftermath. Unfortunately,
my attempt still doesn't convince some of how bad it will be.

[jax]

Appreciate the heads up but don't you think we saw all that last year? Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan ! I don't think many people in Florida need a reminder what hurricanes can do. Luckily though we have state and local governments that know when they need to get off their butts and make things happen. If the pictures were meant to be funny I didn't think so.

Yes, you had three hurricanes last year plus Ivan (Alabama landfall).
The only one that was a category five in its lifetime was Ivan, which
brought category five surge inland. The odds are that Wilma will bring
a category 5 surge in, and that's something that South Florida has not
seen in a long long time.

There is no comparison in the damage done between Katrina versus
Frances, Jeanne, and Charley. The price tag for Katrina will run over
$300 billion easily, about four times that of all of Florida's 2004 hurricanes
combined.

Finally, I see no humor in any of this. I want people to be prepared
to save their lives, and what to expect in the aftermath. Unfortunately,
my attempt still doesn't convince some of how bad it will be.

dh... with all due respect... stop trying to scare them so. The fact is that
odds are NOT likely that Wilma will bring a Cat 5 surge to Florida. It's not
forcast to be a cat 5 in the gulf... I would be surprised to see surges over
10 foot... maybe 15 around the center based on the current NHC forcast...
JMHO

[dhweather]

I'm not trying to scare anyone. I wnat them to be educated about
category five hurricanes and what they actually do. No power for
three weeks, no cable for five weeks, no phones for seven weeks.
Widespread destruction is just part of it.

People here thought that "I was ok for Camille", and found their homes
under water.

"Camille killed more people today than she did in 1969" - Biloxi Mayor
AJ Holloway, after Katrina made landfall.

[jlauderdal]

I'm not trying to scare anyone. I wnat them to be educated about
category five hurricanes and what they actually do. No power for
three weeks, no cable for five weeks, no phones for seven weeks.
Widespread destruction is just part of it.

People here thought that "I was ok for Camille", and found their homes
under water.

"Camille killed more people today than she did in 1969" - Biloxi Mayor
AJ Holloway, after Katrina made landfall.

thx but what happened with katrina isnt predicted for anywhere in florida, everyone on this board has seen the devestation from katirna and you are just chewing up bandwidth.

[dhweather]

Derek Ortt has already stated that he believe that Wilma will expand
her windfield to near Katrina size:

1500 UTC 10/19/2005 HURRICANE WILMA FORECAST #9

This is an independent product

Dropsonde pressures indicated 882mb, making Wilma the most intense hurricane ever. It may have briefly became more intense. However, latest imagery indicates a slight warming of the cloud tops. Initial intensity will bet set at 155KT. Weakening to a category 4 due to a likely eye wall replacement cycle is indicated today, followed by re-intensification into a 5 tomorrow. Long term, shear should increase, though Wilma is forecast to cross Florida as a 110KT category 3 hurricane. No change in intensity is forecast once into the Atlantic.

There is no change to the forecast reasoning. A south Florida landfall is likely in 72-96 hours. Long term, there should be a bending back to the left due to the tilt of the trough. Latest GFDL has a final landfall in Maine. I will accelerate the track once in the Atlantic, but not that much yet.

Wilma is moving in cyclonic loops and is expected to grow into a Katrina sized hurricane, or just slightly smaller. Therefore, do not focus on short term wobbles or just the motion of the eye.

Initial: 17.3N 82.8W 155KT
12 Hour: 18.0N 84.1W 130KT
24 Hour: 19.0N 85.2W 140KT
36 Hour: 20.5N 86.2W 145KT
48 Hour: 22.5N 86.3W 135KT
72 Hour: 25.0N 82.3W 115KT
USE WITH EXTREME CAUTION AS FOLLOWING IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERROR
96 Hour: 29.0N 77.0W 75KT (crossed Florida)
120 Hour: 38.0N 70.0W 75KT

Next Forecast: 0300 UTC

Forecaster: Ortt




Their latest product is:



11 A.M. EDT 10/19/2005 HURRICANE WILMA UPDATE #23

This is an independent product

WILMA HAS BECOME THE MOST INTENSE HURRICANE EVER. AIRCRAFT CREW HAS CONFIRMED

Flooding rainfall is expected to continue for Jamaica for the next couple of days and spread into Honduras later this evening. Take this hurricane seriously. Failure to do likely will result in the loss of your life. There have alrady been fatalities. No hurricane, ever, has been more intense than this.

NWHHC continues to recommend a Hurricane Watch for the following locations: Cayman Islands, Caribbean Coast of Honduras, south coast of Cuba west of 82W, including Isle of Youth, and from the Belize/Mexican Border to Cancun. Super Hurricane Watches or Warnings likely will be needed eventually. As always, these are only recommendations. The official watches and warnings can be found on the Official Alerts Page or from local emergency management officials.

Residents elsewhere in the NW Caribbean need to closely monitor the progress of Wilma. Wilma is a category 5 hurricane and will devastate one more regions.

Residents of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should prepare for a major hurricane.

Comply with any and all orders given by local emergency management officials. Failure to do so may result in the loss of your life.

Currently, the eye of very dangerous Hurricane Wilma is located near 17.4N and 83.2W. This places the center about 325 miles SE of Cozemul Island. The motion continues to the WNW near 8 m.p.h. A turn back to the NW is expected soon, with a gradual turn to the north, toward the Yucatan or western Cuba, before a hard NE turn is expected, bringing the system toward south Florida on Saturday.

Maximum winds remain near 180 m.p.h. The pressure has fallen to at least 882mb. Pending confirmation in best track, Wilma is the most intense hurricane ever. Weakening is expected during the next 24 hours, followed by re-intensification, due to an eye wall replacement cycle. Wilma will likely remain as a category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next few days.

Next Update: 2 P.M.

Forecaster: Cangialosi




Now tell me again how this is a waste of bandwidth?

[Maestro]

I'm no hurricane expert, but what kind of storm surge is expected for the east coast of Florida? Do they get a surge where the hurricane exits land?

Also, you cannot compare the population density of SW Florida and SE Florida. I realize that SW Florida is growing, but it has nowhere near the amount of people that SE Florida has.

[HurryKane]

Now tell me again how this is a waste of bandwidth?

You know I love ya more'n my luggage, but you had to go and say that at the end of something that got double posted, didn't ya. Hee hee

[DramaQueen]

What is the storm surge projection for Florida? Does anyone have this information? I imagine that we can expect to see a Cat 5 surge even if Wilma diminishes considerably before landfall.. Katrina has taught us that it doesn't take a Cat 5 hurricane to make a Cat 5 storm surge.. For those in Florida take care and prepare...

Dh I think you have done a marvelous job of getting the message out there that a Cat 5 surge is very possible and what a Cat 5 surge can do...

[GulfHills]

Those pictures are unbelievable. Thanks for showing these. Have they got all the debri up yet??

[dhweather]

Those pictures are unbelievable. Thanks for showing these. Have they got all the debri up yet??

The local news last night stated that we are about 25% complete with
the debris pickup. It will take a year to clean up Waveland, Bay St. Louis,
Pass Christian, and Long Beach.

[CFL]

dhweather and hurrykane -

How are people there holding up emotionally? These storms have a deep emotional impact IMO. Strangely enough, a little over a year after Hurricane Ivan hit us in Pensacola, I found myself sitting down for a good cry. It wasn't until I got up here that it caught up with me. Maybe I was just so busy with repairing and rebuilding for a year, or maybe it was all the photos coming out of yall's neighborhoods that brought it all back. Life certainly changes in some ways after a major hurricane. It's like you have to create a "new normal".

[HurryKane]

CFL,

Your term 'new normal' is perfect. That's what most of my friends and coworkers are trying to create.

I'd say the emotional response now is pretty dependent on the amount of damage sustained and/or any harm to loved ones or friends. People are definitely acting differently in varying degrees. This can be attributed to many things: depression, new living circumstances (with new people or too many people), avoidance via a number of things (such as keeping phenomenally busy, denial, drinking, sleeping all the time, etc), stress-induced outbursts, and so on.

It has been quite the sociological study in the human response, that's for sure. Most days I wouldn't think stomping around in flooded New Orleans East is a good idea, but a couple of weeks ago I did . I blame it all on Katrina and my roomdawgs: http://www.2daves.org/sd

[dhweather]

CFL, as HerryKane mentioned, there is a wide spectrum of responses
from people. Some are determined to build back better. Most are
still in shock to some degree. A few are a bit "nutty" these days (understandibly).

Overall, the mental health here as taken a tremendous blow. You just
don't get over it - it's not possible. I got off light compared to most,
and it is still deeply disturbing to see the destruction, the human tragedy,
the news of more bodies found (4 this week now). New normal - that's
a great way to call it.

Thanks!

David

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

A double dose of Zoloft has done the trick for me.....