Reminding North Gulf Coasters

[Mississippi Storm Magnet]

As I sit here in my trailer, listening to the hum of a generator, and looking out the window seeing piles of junk/washers/dryers/refrigerators,

I was reminded of this model map, showing a sharp right turn. Everyone please keep their guard up.

[skysummit]

I don't think anyone is letting their guard down, but this is a different situation. I believe this front coming down is one heck of a front. Something would have to happen drastically for it not to turn....like the front missing it.

[N2FSU]

Thanks for the reminder Magnet. I know that the NHC and the models are pretty darn accurate almost all the time, but I still get nervous when a storm this powerful is heading in my general direction and the dynamics that will turn it are still way off in the Pacific. I have faith that it will make the turn as forecast, but I won't relax until it is east of 84W and heading NE.

[N2Storms]

I too appreciate the content of this post, but all of the mets seem to have a very high degree of confidence that Wilma will make that sharp right hook towards the SW FL coast...will watch here in Panama City, but certainly not concerned about her at this time...

[skysummit]

If this was August or September, and the models were showing this turn, I'd be concerned...but as of this morning, I'm just concerned for those in the path. Hopefully she'll weaken as much, or more, than forecasted.

[Rouster]

I will say the same thing I said for both Katrina and Rita.
This storm is too far out for anyone to accurately predict it.
Everything I've ever seen says that the NHC, Met's, Models, etc. do very good in the short term (36-48 hours out) but struggle beyond that.
Not that it will happen, but if for some reason that cold front stalls or doesn't dig as deep as some think, the track can change quickly. Just remember that it doesn't take much of a shift for the track to hit say Mobile instead of Tampa. Not that it will happen, but it could.
I have very little confidence in anything when it comes to hurricanes, especially strong ones.
The only thing I believe at this point is that it will pass over or come very close to the Yucatan Pen. after that we'll just have to watch and see.

[digitaldahling]

that thought. Went to bed last night after reading the NHC 11PM advisory, thinking "whew" and got up this morning thinking I needed new glasses.

Ahead of Katrina, we left Mobile on a Friday morning with her headed to the west coast of Florida. By that afternoon got a call saying she was headed to the north Gulf Coast taking aim on Mobile. Went to bed that Saturday night while she was at 112MPH and got up six hours later to a category 5. Deja vu all over again.

No matter where she's heading, the only statistic anyone needs to be is on the list of those who evacuated. Do not stay if you're in the cone. Grab your stuff and get out.

[hicksta]

Another thing id suggest everyone considers is strong hurricanes sometimes do stuff out of the ordinary. Kinda like they make thier own enivronments... Example.. Katrina aimed at pensocola.. No one expected it to go that far south... Rita aimed at Corpus.. No one expected her to get that far north..