Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

superfly · #461 Postby **superfly** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:37 am

Unbelievable, that's a 86mb drop in 10 hours.

mdlemin · #462 Postby **mdlemin** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:38 am

OMG! Never thought I would see this in my lifetime! I should get some sleep! This is insane!

#463 Postby **Windy** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:38 am

Holy hell. It didn't just break the record, it shattered it with a sledgehammer.

#464 Postby **Ground_Zero_92** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:39 am

History in the making. Amazing!

NCHurricane · #465 Postby **NCHurricane** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:40 am

This is the first time that I've ever had my heart beating so hard in my chest for a storm that's not making landfall.

Words can't describe.

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com

#466 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:41 am

She is going now after Tip! But I don't think she will get there.

#467 Postby **curtadams** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:41 am

Well, now we understand the delay. They had to triple-check that one. This merits some :eek:

Quite the historical storm here.

Hurrilurker · #468 Postby **Hurrilurker** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:41 am

f5 wrote:884 mb look like Tip's 870mb will be in danger pretty soon

What would Tip's pressure be if adjusted for the Atlantic base pressure? That's the only fair way to make a comparison, isn't it?

Thunder44 · #469 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:41 am

From the 5am advisory, seems that pressure reading may be suspect.

...Air Force reconnaissance plane reported 884 mb...the lowest
minimum pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Atlantic
Basin...this value should be used with caution until calibrated...
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Punta gruesa.

f5 · #470 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:43 am

what kind of storm is this i bet all the METS are eating crow right now they forecasted a CAT 3 to low CAT 4 this look like a CAT 6 or 7

n o o d l z · #471 Postby **n o o d l z** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:44 am

Just looking at the satellite, and judging by the widening eye diameter, this storm has reached its peak.

f5 · #472 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:48 am

i bet the NHC can hardly breathe rigth now

#473 Postby **TexasF6** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:49 am

DUDE. 8 8 4 mb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Huckster · #474 Postby **Huckster** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:55 am

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190841
TCDAT4
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELIED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL
BEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND
DETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS
PERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.
WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER
VERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM
POTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
MOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT
WEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS
WHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT
7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET
INGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN
TRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.
THIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT
RUN.

IN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS
CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
FLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS
OR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.2N 82.5W 150 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 83.4W 150 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 145 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 85.7W 130 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 26.5N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 33.0N 72.0W 70 KT

$$

#475 Postby **Windy** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:56 am

So, wasn't that the last leg of the recon? Or will they make one more run at it before they go? I've GOT to know if she goes any lower!

f5 · #476 Postby f5 » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:07 am

we need a weakening trend anyone agree?

johngaltfla · #477 Postby **johngaltfla** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:12 am

f5 wrote:we need a weakening trend anyone agree?

We need dissipation.

I-75 is going to look worse than the Houston evacuation by tonight I predict.

Oh, My, GOD!!!!

:eek:

#478 Postby **M_0331** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:31 am

It's going to take a while to spin down, plus it is still spinning tight. It could ~evolve to annular in next eye wall replacement but as long as it has 1.5 mile eye, it may not need to change. We are in uncharted waters except for EPac data.

<Eddie>

Annular hurricanes,
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~kossin/articl ... larhurr.pd
shorter (ca)explanations in Goggle

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #479 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:43 am

10C inside the eye, 24C outside. Temperature difference indicates it's still strengthening...

I actually get the feeling this thing will absolutely implode once that ERC hits. She almost looks fragile, for such a monster I mean. The eye is only two miles in diameter, but the cloudtops surrounding it go up 10 miles at least. Just think about that mental image - I really hope the recon flight got some good moonlight pictures. It's like a vacuum cleaner is just sitting up in the troposphere. But because this storm is so machine-like, I think the slightest bug in the system will just bring that eyewall toppling over onto itself. After that the secondary 20-mile eyewall will probably begin contracting immediately as it tries to suck all that debris out of the center, and then it's anyone's call...she may restrengthen. But I think that sometime later today there will be at least a temporary weakening back to Cat4. And I don't think I'd ever be happier to see "just" a Category Four spinning in the NW Caribbean.

Scorpion · #480 Postby **Scorpion** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:46 am

I wish they had recon in there now. Would probably be below 880.

Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

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