Interesting wording in the 11pm Discussion...

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N2FSU
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Interesting wording in the 11pm Discussion...

#1 Postby N2FSU » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:01 pm

Am I just being paranoid and reading too much into this?
I don't remember the word "should" appearing so many times in earlier discussions. This one had more of a hint of doubt in it. And the last sentence seems a little ominous too. NHC and all the models are betting the farm on this cold front being as strong and dipping as far south as they predict. I can't count the number of times we were supposed to get a strong cold front in Tally only to see it wash out north of us. No, I don't think Wilma is going to make it up to me, but I do worry more and more about TPA (I have family there)

THE RIDGES SHOULD COLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR. ALL
MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE
LEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE
CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY
AGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE
DIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF
FLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.
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#2 Postby Cookiely » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:21 pm

This is saying to me that you should look at the cone and not at the center line. Instead of Remember the Alamo, we should "Remember Charley".
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#3 Postby aerojad » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:44 pm

They are doubtful about the forecast track because the trof that is supposed to kick Wilma NE hasn't even formed yet. It could be weaker (northern GOM landfall) or stronger (Keys landfall), or not form at all (Stan-area landfall).

So... yeah.
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#4 Postby A1A » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:58 pm

aerojad wrote:They are doubtful about the forecast track because the trof that is supposed to kick Wilma NE hasn't even formed yet. It could be weaker (northern GOM landfall) or stronger (Keys landfall), or not form at all (Stan-area landfall).

So... yeah.


Thanks Detroit - we need an unbiased perspective around here!
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