Tampa Thread:Pasco,Pinellas,Hillsborough, Manatee

[floridahurricaneguy]

Here is the thread for Tampa metro area. Post any local emergency info here. School closings, evacuations and the such. I am still concerned it could end up suprising this area. Not that I want it but I am worried.

Matt

[Bellarose]

Hey, Matt....I'm here in Tampa. Thanks for starting this thread. Hopefully we won't need it. I'm totally intrigued by this storm. I can't get over how much this thing is growing.

Bella

[feederband]

Plant City checking in...Awsome night tonite...Can't believe all H**l could be breaking out in a few days....

[Cookiely]

I sure wouldn't mind if we got some rain out of Wilma.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Here on the barrier island, we are definately paying attention! The good thing is that it is a full moon now, so if the storm does get a little further north, at least we won't be dealing with the astronomical high tide at the same time!

[Bellarose]

Hopefully not. I'd be happy with a rainy, windy yucky weekend. Though I would feel horrible for those who did get hit by this. Looks like it may be a major event.

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 190106
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
910 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

.DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER IN A STRING OF PLEASANT OCTOBER EVENINGS
ACROSS THE SUNCOAST. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THE BEGINNING OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN...WHICH IS SHOWING UP ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AND DEWPOINT
RECOVERY. VALUES IN CHARLOTTE AND LEE ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 60S...A
SIGN OF THINGS TO COME AREA-WIDE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. MOST RECENT
SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF THE TREND...WITH KTBW SITTING DRY AT 0.86
PRECIPITABLE WATER WHILE KMFL HAS SHOT UP OVER 2.0 INCHES THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT A CONTINUED RANGE OF TEMPERATURES FROM
URBAN TO RURAL AREAS ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AND WILL
UPDATE THE ZONE TEXT TO ACCOUNT. WINDS MAY STAY UP A LITTLE MORE
FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTH...BUT DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
REMOVE FOG EXCEPT WHERE THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. WEDNESDAY WILL RETURN TO THE LATE
SUMMER-LIKE FEEL AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO OR JUST ABOVE 70 AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS.

AS FOR WILMA...SHE`S UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS PREDICTED...
AND SPINNING SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MOST RECENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN REMARKABLE
AGREEMENT FAVORING THE WORST IMPACTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...IT`S FAR TOO SOON FOR ANYONE TO
LET THEIR GUARD DOWN GIVEN THAT THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE
"PLAYERS" IN THIS EVENT...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. AND BEYOND...IS STILL TO COME. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF ANY ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE MOST
IMPACT WILL BE EXPERIENCED WHEN WILMA APPROACHES. STAY TUNED.

[ChrisN4BSA]

Clearwater checking in.. Long time lurker - first time caller

Just keeping an eye on things. Have to fill up the gas tank, other than that, not to much to report yet other than our work cancelling our big company picnic for this weekend. They didn't want to have to wait until the last minute to try to contact everyone if they had to reschedule it.

I'll buy the turn once I see it actually happening.. IMHO, that turn still seems a little sharp to me..

[Terry]

Matt - how about adding Manatee County to your thread topic? If Wilma comes up Tampa Bay as a Katrina type storm, our little island of Anna Maria will be scoured clean and there will be several feet of water in Bradenton and many points west of I-75.

[melhow]

Largo checking in -

All I have to say is that all of the Bay Area should be paying close attention and, although I am a big Channel 8 Steve Jerve Fan, I have to say that the best overview I have seen for this storm thus far in our coverage area has been with Dennis Phillips.

He really spelled it out as far as the lows that might or might not converge tomorrow out west. Should that NOT happen, we could be in a world of hurt, as Wilma will steer further NORTH on the WC than currently forecast.

I don't think that anyone is paying near enough attention to this in our area, and should the worst play out, it is going to be close to a panic come Friday.

All I know is that I'm spending this evening enjoying a few rum and cokes and getting all of our paperwork together, protected, and then copied out of state.

Hopefully for the Bay are the scenerio that Don Southerland has hinted towards in the PRO-MET forum doesn't play out.

best to all in the state,
melissa

[tampawx]

Pasco County - Wesley Chapel checking in...

Have to agree with you melhow....I caught all the meteorologists earlier this evening and have to agree that Dennis Phillips was the most informative of all of them. If you all remember he did do fairly well with Charley last year.

Stay Safe
Tim

[floridahurricaneguy]

I am concerned. Now that this could be a CAT 5 in 36 or less hours. Should they start evacuations. Even though tampa is not 100% it still could come here and they cant wait until the last minute. I think early evacuations like Houston are needed to be careful. Cant tell people to leave Friday morning , it would be chaos!

Matt

[gatorcane]

I would say Tampa Bay is not out of this yet...

[Cookiely]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 190641
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
241 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...WILMA HAS UNDERGONE RATHER IMPRESSIVE
RAPID DEEPENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND IS NOW A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE! MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE POINTING OUT
THE DETAILS...WITH RUN TO RUN CHANGES IN TIMING AND SUBTLE CHANGES
IN TRACK OF WILMA. IN GENERAL...MOST GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SEVERAL COMPLEX UPR FEATURES...SOME OF WHICH ARE STILL OUT IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...ARE ALL PLAYERS IN THE TRACK OF WILMA AND STILL
THINK WE MAY SEE SOME MORE RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CHANGES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL CYCLES...THUS OUR CWA...ESP SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...IS STILL
POTENTIALLY IN THE THICK OF THINGS AND NO ONE SHOULD LET THEIR GUARD
DOWN. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK HAS WILMA MAKING LANDFALL ACROSS SW FL
(NEAR NAPLES) SAT EVE.

IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH
TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT OFF THE SE COAST LATER TODAY.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RECOVER TODAY...AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. IN FACT...ALREADY SEEING
A BAND OF CLOUDS MOVING NORTH FROM S FL...AND ALSO HAVE HAD A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS LEE CO. AS SUCH WILL INCREASE POPS TO 30 ACROSS
CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES TODAY...WITH 20 NORTH TO TAMPA BAY. IT
WILL AGAIN BE RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON THU WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE LAYER. WILL INCREASE POPS TO
CHANCE FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE N OF TAMPA BAY.
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN NORM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90. FOR FRI...WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR CHARLOTTE
AND LEE COUNTIES AND GOOD CHANCE NORTH TO TAMPA BAY...AS INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF WILMA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE AREA. THICKER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NGT-TUE)...THE BIG STORY CONTINUES TO BE WILMA WHICH
IS ALREADY A CATEGORY 5. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
FORWARD SPEED...POTENTIALLY DELAYING THE STORMS APPROACH TO THE
FLORIDA COAST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. I HAVE BASED THE GRIDS ON THE
OFFICIAL TPC FORECAST. IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT WE ARE STILL
AROUND 4 DAYS FROM LANDFALL...AND LOTS CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN.

BECAUSE OF THE SHIFT IN MODEL TIMINGS...I BROUGHT POPS UP A
BIT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE NATURE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. I
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ALL DAY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH IF
WILMA GETS OUT OF HERE QUICKLY AS PER TPC FORECAST WE WILL SEE A
QUICK END TO THE RAINS EARLY IN THE DAY.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER MOVES IN BEHIND WILMA...AND LATEST MEX TEMPS
ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAVE IN THE GRIDS ALREADY. DAYTIME HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE HELD TO NEAR 80 NORTH TO THE LOWER 80S SOUTH
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH...60 TO
65 CENTRAL...AND UPPER 60S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OCTOBER.

[Forever42]

Orlando lurker checking in, but I grew up in Palm Harbor and I'm watching this for my family.

I was trying to get back to sleep at 6am but then heard the radio and had to jump on the computer to verify it!

[stormie]

All I have to say is that all of the Bay Area should be paying close attention and, although I am a big Channel 8 Steve Jerve Fan, I have to say that the best overview I have seen for this storm thus far in our coverage area has been with Dennis Phillips. He really spelled it out as far as the lows that might or might not converge tomorrow out west. Should that NOT happen, we could be in a world of hurt, as Wilma will steer further NORTH on the WC than currently forecast. I don't think that anyone is paying near enough attention to this in our area, and should the worst play out, it is going to be close to a panic come Friday.

I whole heartedly agree that Dennis Phillips is very good -- the best -- at clearly communicating what's going on with these storms. He's been targeting Friday as the day we'll have a more accurate idea as to the track, so I've sort of been waiting until then to panic or not. That said, it has been good to see the models stay so relatively consistent and to the south of Tampa. It's not good that I definately feel like there's a sense of disbelief in the media. Nothing against The Ellen Show and pretty coffee mugs, but, there is definately a sense of not being allthat concerned as of now. The national news seems to be more concerned about this storm than the local news is right now. I hope we don't see much activity from this monster, but if we do, it seems like it might come as a surprise in a way to some in this area...not good.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Interesting tracks shifted a ton. We are not out of the woods yet by any means in Tampa.

Matt

[pkweed]

Z-Hills checking in....we have a winter home there, and are coming down the 5th of Nov...I hope and pray everyone is safe...I will keep checking this site!!!

[TampaBayBee]

Manatee County on the river checking in. Thanks for starting this thread.

[dcuevas]

Tampa checking in.... Nice day... I'm worried that if she does come knocking at our door or even with in 100 South no one will be ready. I agree with an earlier post. We should as precaution evacuate our elderly, and low lying areas including all the barrier islands. There is NO WAY we can get everyone off the islands in 1 day. I was just thinking that the only people who are REALLY paying any attention to this is the people on STORM2K. The majority of people just watch the news and follow what mets are saying. I'm not knocking any Mets by no means. I know they don't want to cause panic but lets face it an once of prevention is worth millions. Be safe everyone in Florida!