A Must Read- 2 SCENARIOS. by Local Met

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Tampa Bay Hurricane
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A Must Read- 2 SCENARIOS. by Local Met

#1 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:20 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Local Met Dennis Phillips 2 SCENARIOS-
A gulf of alaska low has to combine with the Southwest US low
to keep storm in South FL. = ENE across FL

If this combining does not happen, landfall may be further north-
Accuweather says this combining may not happen; Some
weather watches I read about said that Right now they
do not appear to be combining = NNE across FL
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#2 Postby Zadok » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:23 pm

If this combining does not happen, landfall may be further north-
Accuweather says this combining may not happen; Some
weather watches I read about said that Right now they
do not appear to be combining = NNE across FL


I vote for this one!
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#3 Postby n o o d l z » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:24 pm

Interesting...any of the mets here have thoughts on this?
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#4 Postby floridahurricaneguy » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:28 pm

Uh... Wouldnt option 2 be worse for Tampa. I am getting a more scary feeling in my stomach!!
Matt
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#5 Postby A1A » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:33 pm

Interesting, any good links for the animated graphics on this? All my expertise on finding animated weather graphics has been on tracking Hcanes.
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Re: A Must Read- 2 SCENARIOS. by Local Met

#6 Postby StormFury » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:35 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Local Met Dennis Phillips 2 SCENARIOS-
A gulf of alaska low has to combine with the Southwest US low
to keep storm in South FL. = ENE across FL

If this combining does not happen, landfall may be further north-
Accuweather says this combining may not happen; Some
weather watches I read about said that Right now they
do not appear to be combining = NNE across FL


Who is to say that they WILL NOT COMBINE IN THE FUTURE. just because they (the low pressures) are not combining yet, it does not mean they will not combine in the future (like tomorrow). By the way, you should look at the latest forecast predicted by Cangliosa and Derek Ortt...http://www.nwhhc.com/atl242005graphics.html
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Re: A Must Read- 2 SCENARIOS. by Local Met

#7 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:38 pm

StormFury wrote:
Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Local Met Dennis Phillips 2 SCENARIOS-
A gulf of alaska low has to combine with the Southwest US low
to keep storm in South FL. = ENE across FL

If this combining does not happen, landfall may be further north-
Accuweather says this combining may not happen; Some
weather watches I read about said that Right now they
do not appear to be combining = NNE across FL


Who is to say that they WILL NOT COMBINE IN THE FUTURE. just because they (the low pressures) are not combining yet, it does not mean they will not combine in the future (like tomorrow). By the way, you should look at the latest forecast predicted by Cangliosa and Derek Ortt...http://www.nwhhc.com/atl242005graphics.html



the not-combining observation is something I got off of other weather
watchers in the area--- i ripped it off from them

i really have no idea what the combining involves- just got it
off other ppls observations in my area
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#8 Postby canetracker » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:42 pm

A1A wrote:Interesting, any good links for the animated graphics on this? All my expertise on finding animated weather graphics has been on tracking Hcanes.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20050928&endTime=-1&duration=7
I like to use this one to watch the high pressure and troughs.
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#9 Postby tndefender » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:50 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Uh... Wouldnt option 2 be worse for Tampa. I am getting a more scary feeling in my stomach!!
Matt


Isn't the Tampa Bay area practically the last remaining major metroploitan area on the gulf coast that hasn't been directly affected by a hurricane this season?
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#10 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 18, 2005 9:58 pm

IF I bought that solution and lived on Longboat Key or Anna Maria, I'd be renting a U-Haul now and leaving town.

Plus it wouldn't be hunky-dorey for me.

However, I give that forecast ALOT of credence. I saw Derek's forecast and that massive 90 degree turn, (IN MY OPINION ONLY) just doesn't seem feasible.
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#11 Postby A1A » Tue Oct 18, 2005 10:41 pm

canetracker wrote:
A1A wrote:Interesting, any good links for the animated graphics on this? All my expertise on finding animated weather graphics has been on tracking Hcanes.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=small&endDate=20050928&endTime=-1&duration=7
I like to use this one to watch the high pressure and troughs.


WOW - looks like the Wilma right slap trough is taking shape in Texas right now!
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