Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

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WindRunner
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#221 Postby WindRunner » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:16 pm

senorpepr wrote:
WindRunner wrote:EYEWALL 025 SPL 1675N08152W 2141 LST WND 082 MBL WND 09087
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10083 967859 WL150 08588 156 =

977mb winds: N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
967mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 90 mph
960mb winds: E (85°) @ 108 mph
953mb winds: E (85°) @ 98 mph
920mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 101 mph
880mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 89 mph
859mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 92 mph
842mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 90 mph

Look at the dropsonde here, in the first eyewall pass. That should support at least a 5kt upgrade, if not 10.


Not really... 108mph at 960mb would equal around 80 mph.


But doesn't that 90 at 967mb mean much, or do the winds start to drop off quick as you go down from there?
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#222 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:16 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Latest dropsonde shows it stationary?

Movement reflected in the 7pm advisory?


Slight westward drift.


Enough of a trend or will they keep the WNW heading on the next advisory?


That will depend on how they are feeling. :wink:
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#223 Postby superfly » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:16 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:Category Three Hurricane:

* Air pressure: 945-964 mb.


And here we have a cat 1 963mb storm. :D
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#224 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:17 pm

WindRunner wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
WindRunner wrote:EYEWALL 025 SPL 1675N08152W 2141 LST WND 082 MBL WND 09087
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10083 967859 WL150 08588 156 =

977mb winds: N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
967mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 90 mph
960mb winds: E (85°) @ 108 mph
953mb winds: E (85°) @ 98 mph
920mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 101 mph
880mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 89 mph
859mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 92 mph
842mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 90 mph

Look at the dropsonde here, in the first eyewall pass. That should support at least a 5kt upgrade, if not 10.



Not really... 108mph at 960mb would equal around 80 mph.


But doesn't that 90 at 967mb mean much, or do the winds start to drop off quick as you go down from there?


At that level... about 90% or still around 80 mph.
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#225 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:18 pm

Picture of the flight so far, numbers are max flight level wind data each 30 seconds.
Image
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#226 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:19 pm

HenkL wrote:Picture of the flight so far, numbers are max flight level wind data each 30 seconds.
http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/0102005194714.jpg


Great visual!
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#227 Postby JamesFromMaine2 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:22 pm

will they be going through the center again or not?
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#228 Postby artist » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:24 pm

absolutely LOVE that visual! Is it something that is always done or just your current handy work? :D
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#229 Postby tronbunny » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:24 pm

senorpepr wrote:
HenkL wrote:Picture of the flight so far, numbers are max flight level wind data each 30 seconds.
http://www.weerwoord.be/uploads/0102005194714.jpg


Great visual!


I'll second that!
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#230 Postby curtadams » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:27 pm

superfly wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:Category Three Hurricane:

* Air pressure: 945-964 mb.


And here we have a cat 1 963mb storm. :D


A WEAK cat1 storm, from recon so far. Bizarre!!
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#231 Postby JTD » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:32 pm

Today, it uses the pressure drops to grow in geographic size.

Tommorow, it becames an extremely dangerous hurricane.
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#232 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:32 pm

The winds will respond... remember Katrina? It dropped into the 940's and stayed a marginal 3 all day Saturday and then that night... well, you know the rest.
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#233 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:33 pm

Yes I agree, by tommrow eve it should be a cat 3.
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#234 Postby Scorpion » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:33 pm

jason0509 wrote:Today, it uses the pressure drops to grow in geographic size.

Tommorow, it becames an extremely dangerous hurricane.


I agree Jason. I am watching the pressure tonight. If it gets in the 940's I will begin getting scared.
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#235 Postby mtm4319 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:36 pm

artist wrote:absolutely LOVE that visual! Is it something that is always done or just your current handy work? :D


I think that has to be automated in some way. I've posted plenty of maps from Google Earth (the software used to make that map above) on here, and there's no way I could hand-make that map myself in under 90 minutes.
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#236 Postby HenkL » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:38 pm

artist wrote:absolutely LOVE that visual! Is it something that is always done or just your current handy work? :D

I've written a program to convert de raw data into a .kml file for GoogleEarth. The program is very rude at the moment, but perhaps before the next season it could be something worthwile for the community.
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superfly

#237 Postby superfly » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:45 pm

Looks like they're setting up one more SE-NW pass before heading home.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#238 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:51 pm

The eye is gone...Expect the pressure to be near the same.
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MiamiensisWx

#239 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:54 pm

Matt_hurricanewatcher wrote:The eye is gone...Expect the pressure to be near the same.


Please try to stop your -removed-. Sorry to sound rude, but just because the eye is gone now dosn't mean it won't strengthen. Rita looked similart to what it is now, and look what happened. By the way, I am NOT SUGGESTING A CATEGORY FIVE WILMA.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#240 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:56 pm

I just said that the eye was gone...Maybe the strengthing is leveling off. But please don't call me a freaking w!ishcaster...I almost never wishcast. I was mostly right about the slow strengthing earlier...Yes it will likely become stronger.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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