Hurricane Wilma Recon Discussion Thread

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Stratosphere747
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#201 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 4:59 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:All I can tell you is that they will find much lower pressures. This thing looks like Katrina or Rita like with that Cdo. With colder cloud tops then them.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

965 Millibars I will say!


15mb drop in a few hours?
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#202 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:00 pm

wow 963
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#203 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:00 pm

:eek: :eek: 963hPa

URNT12 KNHC 182158
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/21:42:20Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1112 m
D. 55 kt
E. 34 deg 051 nm
F. 111 deg 082 kt
G. 024 deg 009 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C7
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z :eek:
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#204 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:00 pm

:eek:
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#205 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:01 pm

Good job, Matt... you were the closest!
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#206 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:02 pm

I was wondering if we could see her winds bomb suddenly even though the pressure drops at the current rate like Katrina. She was 115 mph and a very low 936 mb, and then she went straight to 145 mph and the pressure dropped only to 935.
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#207 Postby Scorpion » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:03 pm

Incredible. This is going to be a 950's Cat 1.
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#208 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:05 pm

the pressure dropped to 963 .... the winds will be going up soon !!!! just wait and see..... it won't be a cat one by morning.... cat 3

this is not an official forcast!!!!!!!!


Image
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#209 Postby WindRunner » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:05 pm

Alright, let's get ready for the next eyewall pass, through the SW quad.
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#210 Postby Scorpion » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:06 pm

southfloridawx2005 wrote:the pressure dropped to 963 .... the winds will be going up soon !!!! just wait and see..... it won't be a cat one by morning.... cat 3

this is not an official forcast!!!!!!!!


A Cat 4 by morning is likely. 930's in the morning IMO, unless an EWRC takes place.
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#211 Postby superfly » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:07 pm

963mb and 8nm closed eye, wow.
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#212 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:07 pm

Category Three Hurricane:

* Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots).
* Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal.
* Air pressure: 945-964 mb.
* Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut off by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.
* Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995, Fran of 1996, and Bonnie of 1998 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.
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#213 Postby WindRunner » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:08 pm

EYEWALL 025 SPL 1675N08152W 2141 LST WND 082 MBL WND 09087
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10083 967859 WL150 08588 156 =

977mb winds: N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
967mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 90 mph
960mb winds: E (85°) @ 108 mph
953mb winds: E (85°) @ 98 mph
920mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 101 mph
880mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 89 mph
859mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 92 mph
842mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 90 mph

Look at the dropsonde here, in the first eyewall pass. That should support at least a 5kt upgrade, if not 10.
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#214 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:08 pm

Scorpion wrote:
southfloridawx2005 wrote:the pressure dropped to 963 .... the winds will be going up soon !!!! just wait and see..... it won't be a cat one by morning.... cat 3

this is not an official forcast!!!!!!!!


A Cat 4 by morning is likely. 930's in the morning IMO, unless an EWRC takes place.


Cat 4 by morning is very unlikely. Pressure gradient is too loose for that.
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#215 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:10 pm

WindRunner wrote:EYEWALL 025 SPL 1675N08152W 2141 LST WND 082 MBL WND 09087
AEV 20507 DLM WND 10083 967859 WL150 08588 156 =

977mb winds: N (N/A°) @ N/A mph
967mb winds: ENE (75°) @ 90 mph
960mb winds: E (85°) @ 108 mph
953mb winds: E (85°) @ 98 mph
920mb winds: ESE (105°) @ 101 mph
880mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 89 mph
859mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 92 mph
842mb winds: ESE (110°) @ 90 mph

Look at the dropsonde here, in the first eyewall pass. That should support at least a 5kt upgrade, if not 10.


Not really... 108mph at 960mb would equal around 80 mph.
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#216 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:10 pm

Latest dropsonde shows it stationary?

Movement reflected in the 7pm advisory?
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#217 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:11 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:Latest dropsonde shows it stationary?

Movement reflected in the 7pm advisory?


Slight westward drift.
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#218 Postby P.K. » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:12 pm

Ah yes but you said the same about the chances of Vince becoming a hurricane Mike. :wink:

Getting late here so I'll have to have a look in the morning to see how it develops overnight.
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#219 Postby senorpepr » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:14 pm

P.K. wrote:Ah yes but you said the same about the chances of Vince becoming a hurricane Mike. :wink:

Getting late here so I'll have to have a look in the morning to see how it develops overnight.

Shhh! :wink:
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#220 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Oct 18, 2005 5:15 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:Latest dropsonde shows it stationary?

Movement reflected in the 7pm advisory?


Slight westward drift.


Enough of a trend or will they keep the WNW heading on the next advisory?
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