GUTS CHECK FOR WILMA - October 18, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as
such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed
by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional
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the NHC and NWS products.

Gulf of Mexico Tropical Summary - GUTS check for HURRICANE WILMA on October 18, 2005

Yes, it's been a long time since I've been able to do any analysis of
the tropics. You can thank Katrina for that.

First off, we have a fairly strong ridge centered over the western Gulf.
There's also a fairly strong zonal flow over the northern Gulf.
An approaching trof will weaken the ridge and allow Wilma to move more
northerly. As she approaches western Cuba, the westerlies will pick her
up and accelerate her in the directon of South Florida.

There is sufficient oceanic heat to support Wilma as she approaches the
Gulf to allow her to become a major hurricane, perhaps approaching
category 4 strength. Once in the gulf, the water temps are lower
and the westerlies will shear Wilma. I expect that Wilma will make landfall
somewhere over South Florida as a category 2/3, with category 3 surge.

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/guts20051018.jpg">

[artist]

GUTS is back!

[tracyswfla]

GUTS is back!

OH YEA!

[Canelaw99]

woohooo!!!!

[Ixolib]

I expect that Wilma will make landfall somewhere over South Florida as a category 2/3, with category 3 surge.

Hey DH, isn't it interesting how use north GOMers are now much more intune with and aware of surge potential!!

[SkeetoBite]

Yee Ha! I missed these. Glad you're ok and that you are back to work on these.

[dhweather]

I expect that Wilma will make landfall somewhere over South Florida as a category 2/3, with category 3 surge.

Hey DH, isn't it interesting how use north GOMers are now much more intune with and aware of surge potential!!

Yeah, Katrina and Rita gave us reasons for that too. Once it becomes a
major, you can pretty much expect that surge to follow no matter
what the wind does.

[boca]

Guts in Eats out love it.

[LAwxrgal]

WB Guts and Eats!

[Ixolib]

I expect that Wilma will make landfall somewhere over South Florida as a category 2/3, with category 3 surge.

Hey DH, isn't it interesting how use north GOMers are now much more intune with and aware of surge potential!!

Yeah, Katrina and Rita gave us reasons for that too. Once it becomes a
major, you can pretty much expect that surge to follow no matter
what the wind does.

Yep - the wind issue is not NEARLY as important as the surge issue. I am now a firm believer in that!! And this is an issue that really needs to be studied in greater detail, and an issue that needs massive education to the general public.