JB thinks hurricane conditions in Jax

[hurricanedude]

even with a south florida hit
He must think this will be a large storm...area wise

In Florida, I expect a hurricane hit with sub 950 pressures and most of the coast from Cedar Key to Jacksonville to have at least hurricane-force gusts. I have a landfall 3:00-9:00 a.m. Sunday between Tampa and Key West and an exit within 25 miles of Cape Canaveral 12-15 hours later. Unlike the fist of fury that was Charley, this will be more of a large-scale brawler, much like Isabel. Also unlike Charley, which underachieved and disappeared farther north, this is likely to help produce plenty of wind and rain farther north.

Ciao for now.

[melhow]

I have a landfall 3:00-9:00 a.m. Sunday between Tampa and Key West and an exit within 25 miles of Cape Canaveral 12-15 hours later.

What's your reasoning for a more central WC and not southern WC landfall? Just wondering...

[cinlfla]

What's your reasoning for a more central WC and not southern WC landfall? Just wondering...

I think he's quoting jb.

[caneman]

I have a landfall 3:00-9:00 a.m. Sunday between Tampa and Key West and an exit within 25 miles of Cape Canaveral 12-15 hours later.

What's your reasoning for a more central WC and not southern WC landfall? Just wondering...

I just posted in another thread with the Euro and GFDl and past track records and being fairly consistant around Sarasota this is becoming concerning for the Tampa area.

[melhow]

What's your reasoning for a more central WC and not southern WC landfall? Just wondering...

I think he's quoting jb.

daahh, ok. Oops...

But I read this morning on Accuweather that JB is putting it near Port Charlotte. Hmmm...

[cinlfla]

I just posted in another thread with the Euro and GFDl and past track records and being fairly consistant around Sarasota this is becoming concerning for the Tampa area.

I agree I have been watchign the Euro for several days now and it is the most consistant model by far.

[jlauderdal]

:eek:
even with a south florida hit
He must think this will be a large storm...area wise

In Florida, I expect a hurricane hit with sub 950 pressures and most of the coast from Cedar Key to Jacksonville to have at least hurricane-force gusts. I have a landfall 3:00-9:00 a.m. Sunday between Tampa and Key West and an exit within 25 miles of Cape Canaveral 12-15 hours later. Unlike the fist of fury that was Charley, this will be more of a large-scale brawler, much like Isabel. Also unlike Charley, which underachieved and disappeared farther north, this is likely to help produce plenty of wind and rain farther north.

Ciao for now.

so it could hit in key west and affect jax with hurricane force winds, that would be quite a track if it verified

[HurricaneGirl]

[Brent]

Uh... not if it hits South Florida. Now if it hits Tampa it could.

[k-man]

Well, for one we won't know if this thing is even going to impact Florida greatly until it makes the turn. Only then will we know where and at what angle it will come in. Our local met is saying it will be larger than Charley, but less intense, more like 110mph at landfall (if that even occurs), and that like Charley, it will be a fast mover. Having gone through Charley, even if it came in at Port Charolotte and took the same exact track of Charley, if it comes in at 110mph, we'll barely have hurricane winds in Orlando, let alone Jacksonville. Lots of hype on this thing already...