Angle?

[bucman1]

What role will the angle of the penninsula play in forecasting the track?

[seaswing]

Very good question

[seaswing]

Very good question

[Recurve]

None. The land doesn't influence the track. It goes where it goes, but I guess that's not what you meant.

Obviously, if it approaches at a low angle, it shaves more of the coast, if it approaches perpendicular to the coast, it affects a smaller part of the coastline.

Give some more info on your question and I'm sure the experts will help.

[bucman1]

Thank you Recurve!

What I mean is, as the system makes a ne turn toward the coast the angle of the coastline as it turns is the diffence between a futher north landfall than a south landfall.

does that sound any clearer ?

[Recurve]

A storm in the gulf has a wide target if it's turning, right? Just a few degrees difference covers a lot of west coast FL.

That was Charley 2004. The angle and where it started pointed to Sanibel/Charlotte/Punta Gorda. A hundred miles north or a slightly smaller angle would have aimed much farther north. The front grabbed it just a bit sooner or stronger than expected, not by much.

If you mean does the more northerly part of FL stick out more to catch a storm, it all depends on how far north in the gulf it turns, and whether it's being driven NE by a strong front or just going northward between two highs. A strong front has winds nearly paralel to the front, blowing mostly froim the SW. A weakness between two highs could steer it more northerly through the gulf and clockwise around a high to the east, not necessarily at as strong a NE angle.

Hope that helps some. If I muddled it others please chime in.

[tornadochaser86]

do you mean by if it hits the peninsula will it weaken more than if it just grazes it then the answer would be yes since the storm will loise its energy source the water if it grazes it is likely to not weaken by much is that what you meant?