West Coast of FL and Tampa Bay So Far Spared but...

johngaltfla · #41 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:03 pm

boca_chris wrote:If Rita hits Houston as it appears it will then so far this season every vulnerable area has been hit EXCEPT one:

Carolinas (Ophelia)
Northern Gulf coast and FL panhandle (Katrina, Dennis)
Western Gulf coast (Rita)
South Florida (Katrina,Rita)
Eastern Gulf/West coast of FL, Tampa Bay (????)

It wouldn't surprise me to see an October SW Caribbean/GOM storm impact the west coast of FL

The last major hurricane to hit Tampa Bay was late October in 1921 although several minimal hurricanes and tropical storms have impacted them over the years.

Thoughts and comments welcome

I don't know if you've caught some of the latest news reviews and articles on the subject but Tampa Bay was listed as the one area that a major hurricane could cause more severe damage than Katrina.

I tend to buy that. As far as this season goes, I don't think we skate. Nor will Miami. Both areas will be hit by northbound Caribbean originated storms, IMHO. The intensity of such storms is the big question.

#42 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:05 pm

I tend to buy that. As far as this season goes, I don't think we skate. Nor will Miami. Both areas will be hit by northbound Caribbean originated storms, IMHO. The intensity of such storms is the big question.

johngaltfla · #43 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:09 pm

Sorry Chris. But look at the historical paths. That's when we get zapped. The stupid cold fronts move the monsters right up at us.

#44 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:10 pm

Sorry Chris. But look at the historical paths. That's when we get zapped. The stupid cold fronts move the monsters right up at us.

I'm afraid you are right. Once we get past October I'll be feeling alot better...

Vandora · #45 Postby **Vandora** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 8:10 pm

johngaltfla wrote:I tend to buy that. As far as this season goes, I don't think we skate. Nor will Miami. Both areas will be hit by northbound Caribbean originated storms, IMHO. The intensity of such storms is the big question.

I'm happy (in a manner of speaking) to end the season with just the Cat 1. Please!

(Oh, how I wish THAT sort of -removed- would make a difference.)

Scorpion · #46 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:02 pm

Well, last year the season pretty much shut down after Jeanne hit. All there were were Matthew, Nicole, and Otto. Maybe it could occur this year. Also, wouldn't the troughs induce shear on a big hurricane in the Caribbean coming into Florida? And the Cuba landmass would likely weaken it as well. Just food for thought.

#47 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:07 pm

its not like SW Florida is supposed to get hit every year. Its perfectly normal to have a season go by and no hits.

<RICKY>

johngaltfla · #48 Postby **johngaltfla** » Mon Sep 26, 2005 9:48 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:its not like SW Florida is supposed to get hit every year. Its perfectly normal to have a season go by and no hits.

<RICKY>

We've been spared an eye crossing our specific city for over 100 years. I'd love to continue that trend for another 100.

Patrick99 · #49 Postby **Patrick99** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 7:55 am

Scorpion wrote:Well, last year the season pretty much shut down after Jeanne hit. All there were were Matthew, Nicole, and Otto. Maybe it could occur this year. Also, wouldn't the troughs induce shear on a big hurricane in the Caribbean coming into Florida? And the Cuba landmass would likely weaken it as well. Just food for thought.

I don't know....I keep thinking about Michelle. She was one mean late October storm, and could easily have been ours.

inotherwords · #50 Postby **inotherwords** » Tue Sep 27, 2005 8:38 am

Senorpepr posted a really nice summary in a thread in the pro section.

In it, he researched the landfalls and intensity of every post-September 26th storm in the past 10 years. Some interesting food for thought. While south and southwest FL are very vulnerable this time of year and we do need to remain vigilant, there are plenty of storms that go elsewhere in October, we need to remember that.

Look at the end of the thread for his post dated Sept 26.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70143

#51 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:14 am

If Rita hits Houston as it appears it will then so far this season every vulnerable area has been hit EXCEPT one:

Carolinas (Ophelia)
Northern Gulf coast and FL panhandle (Katrina, Dennis)
Western Gulf coast (Rita)
South Florida (Katrina,Rita)
Eastern Gulf/West coast of FL, Tampa Bay (????)

It wouldn't surprise me to see an October SW Caribbean/GOM storm impact the west coast of FL

The last major hurricane to hit Tampa Bay was late October in 1921 although several minimal hurricanes and tropical storms have impacted them over the years.

Thoughts and comments welcome

To the forum:

I have been very concerned about the W. Coast of FL this hurricane season. I posted this topic over a month ago.

Here we go :eek:

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #52 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:17 am

The current models are very ominous.
Boca_Chris:
Good call on your concern for FL West Coast :wink:

, it may be
coming true

johngaltfla · #53 Postby **johngaltfla** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:20 am

boca_chris wrote:
If Rita hits Houston as it appears it will then so far this season every vulnerable area has been hit EXCEPT one:

Carolinas (Ophelia)
Northern Gulf coast and FL panhandle (Katrina, Dennis)
Western Gulf coast (Rita)
South Florida (Katrina,Rita)
Eastern Gulf/West coast of FL, Tampa Bay (????)

It wouldn't surprise me to see an October SW Caribbean/GOM storm impact the west coast of FL

The last major hurricane to hit Tampa Bay was late October in 1921 although several minimal hurricanes and tropical storms have impacted them over the years.

Thoughts and comments welcome

To the forum:

I have been very concerned about the W. Coast of FL this hurricane season. I posted this topic over a month ago.

Here we go

I remember this thread. And was hoping to post the first "Season Cancel" thread in response.

So much for that idea. :eek:

#54 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:40 pm

I am very concerned for the Tampa Bay area looking at all the data this afternoon. Very, very concerned. :eek:

#55 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:28 pm

allow me to bump this again... :eek:

I hope people are believing me now.

MiamiensisWx · #56 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:30 pm

boca_chris, check out the latest GFS run in the main Wilma thread...

#57 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 5:36 pm

the latest GFS brings it into S. Florida. I do think that is a possibility but the turn it is showing seems very drastic.

#58 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:24 pm

boca_chris wrote:the latest GFS brings it into S. Florida. I do think that is a possibility but the turn it is showing seems very drastic.

Agree Boca _ Chris on the drastic sharp turn. BTW, Great call from Sept. 20th!!

Robert 8-)

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #59 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:25 pm

Excellent call boca_chris on this type of threat...you said this
a month ago- NICE call! :wink:

ronjon · #60 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Oct 17, 2005 6:38 pm

boca_chris wrote:the latest GFS brings it into S. Florida. I do think that is a possibility but the turn it is showing seems very drastic.

i agree bc...a gradual ne turn seems more likely like the euro or gfdl shows.

West Coast of FL and Tampa Bay So Far Spared but...

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