How Far Inland to Evacuate?

[mountainspring]

Hi, everyone, we're in the Tampa Bay region and we are thinking that we might want to get hotel reservations now in case Wilma ends up hitting in our area. (We are right next to the bay.) We have 2 large dogs and our only family member who was not in an evac zone has sold their house, so we now don't have anywhere to go with our dogs.

I know it will be a nightmare drive to Orlando, but we were thinking about it. Or would Lakeland be far enough inland?

I know that Orlando could still get hit, but it won't get hit as a CAT 4. We just want to "not die" - we don't mind loss of power, high winds, so long as the building doesn't collapse on top of us.

We were thinking of booking a newer Residence Inn, which take dogs of all sizes.

Anyway, I'd appreciate any thoughts ... how many miles inland do you have to go to be "safe"? That is, how many miles will it take for a CAT 4 to drop down to a CAT 2 or 1? I know it depends on how fast it's moving and how big it is ... but we are trying to figure out where we might safely ride out a storm with dogs.

Don't say it's too early to think about this ... hotels that will take 2 big dogs ... there aren't many of them. We can always cancel the reservations if necessary.

Thanks!

[gtalum]

Around here the EOC advises people to evacuate miles, not tens or hundreds of miles. The key is to get out of mobile homes and to get out of all buildings in the surge zones. Find a safe shelter as near as possible to your home.

I plan to shelter in place. However, if a Cat 5 were bearing down I might wuss out and go to the in laws' in Atlanta.

I also may change my outlook when we have kids.

[artist]

You might have 2 plans in place - one for a smaller storm close by and then another if it appears to be a monster. As you said - you can always cancel...

[mountainspring]

Around here the EOC advises people to evacuate miles, not tens or hundreds of miles. The key is to get out of mobile homes and to get out of all buildings in the surge zones. Find a safe shelter as near as possible to your home.

I plan to shelter in place. However, if a Cat 5 were bearing down I might wuss out and go to the in laws' in Atlanta.

I also may change my outlook when we have kids.

Yes, but our problem is that with so much of the area close to water (because of the enormous Tampa Bay), we could evacuate for many miles and still be close to water.

We would love to stay where we are, but we are only 12 feet above water. If we had a big hurricane come up Tampa Bay, our house would be gone. Just plain gone. That's why we've got all important papers, valuables, etc., collected and ready to go. There's no way we can shelter in place.

[artist]

smart thinking there mountainspring!

[gtalum]

Yes, but our problem is that with so much of the area close to water (because of the enormous Tampa Bay), we could evacuate for many miles and still be close to water.

We would love to stay where we are, but we are only 12 feet above water. If we had a big hurricane come up Tampa Bay, our house would be gone. Just plain gone. That's why we've got all important papers, valuables, etc., collected and ready to go. There's no way we can shelter in place.

Please don't take my post as a suggestion that everyone shelter in place. I was just listing my personal situation. We are ~5 miles inland and at about 35 feet elevation. We're safe from storm surge here in all but the most nightmarish monster storms. I was just repeating the "evacuate miles or tens of miles, not hundreds of miles" advice given by our local EOC's.

In this area there's really no need for the massive gridlock we see on television before hurricanes. If people outside the evacuation zones stay put, it makes it easier for folks like you who MUST get out to do so.

[Recurve]

Lakeland or Gainesville or Ocala would be plenty far inland to avoid surge, not necessarily far enough for a major to diminish to TS though. Surge could funnel up the bays so I wouldn't want to be within 10 miles of the head of any shore.

[bevgo]

I will never ever shelter in place again. Way too much water around here. I have seen areas close--veryclose--to me that are devastated due to surg form the many bayous/streems. wetlands/rivers that we are surrounded with. I an stunned at the destruction and will never again sit out a hurricane, even a "minimal" hurricane here on the coast. I am getting out. At this point, with all the damage and debris lying around, I am not going to stay for a tropical storm. Just thought I would I would let every one know that I LEARNED MY LESSON.

[curtadams]

Cat 4 hurricanes kill very, very few people in real buildings (ie not mobile homes, sheds, etc.). Here's an early report on Charley deaths - NOBODY died in a house due directly to wind: http://www.sptimes.com/2004/08/16/Weath ... cane.shtml Most people die due to storm-related accidents, most AFTER the storm. Even Cat 5 winds kills few - they may disassemble your house but you can survive in a closet or bathtup under a mattress. If you stay sheltered, you should be OK.

Local official shelters are usually an excellent wind refuge. Basically you want to be in a brick/stone/iron building with a secured roof and away from dangerous trees. Your only risk there is from tornados. Plus, you can usually reach them on short notice. Do it before the TS winds start, though. Notice how many deaths occur driving during or after storms!

Your car, however, may not do so well. Unfortunately it's hard to protect a car. Park it away from trees and debris if you can.

Very smart to plan ahead!

[artist]

curtadams - think they said they live on the bay therefore - worry of storm surge, etc.

[mountainspring]

Thanks everyone for the ideas. It's great to know I don't have to go all the way to Orlando, and that the wind by itself is not likely to kill you.

If a storm hit Tampa, we could not ride it out -- storm surge. We are only 12 feet above sea level. We are 4 houses from the bay. Last year the water came all the way up our street, just to our house, twice (Frances & Jean).

And we can't stay in public shelters - very few if any take dogs.

We're going to get hotel reservations in either Plant City or Lakeland, or maybe the far northern reaches of Tampa.

Thanks everyone!