Complacency is out of control

[gatorcane]

I've always argued about the reason for the NHC 5-day cone but that is another discussion. Almost always the 5 day is very inaccurate and causes too much panic.

[gtalum]

Almost always the 5 day is very inaccurate and causes too much panic.

That's interesting, since you keep announcing a 6-7 day forecast with incredible certainty.

[artist]

boca_chris - living in palm beach county - since when have you seen panic ensue 5 days before a storm here?? All I have witnessed the last 2 years is complacency!

[Droop12]

Good point gtalum, If everyone freaked out 5 days in advance of a storm the economy would crumble because nobody would be at work. Theres no point and thats exactly why people tend to wait until the last mintue just to make sure the storm is heading for them so they dont have to take off work unecassarily.

[gatorcane]

That's interesting, since you keep announcing a 6-7 day forecast with incredible certainty

but I'm not the NHC, my forecasting techniques are different. They worked rather well in predicting Katrina hitting S. Florida about 5 days before it hit. Everybody thought I was crazy.

[artist]

I think you all are missing the point - I don't hear anyone saying to panic - just to be aware a storm MAY be headed to FL and to think about what you may need or if you are going to need to evacuate to think about what you might need to take, etc. Tell me - those that have a home and kids - and are not totally organized - would you be able to get everything to gether in a day - let's say? And know for certain that you did not forget anything? Those that will need to evacuate - if they wait til the day or 2 before - will they be able to find reservations anywhere at all? You just cannot reasonably be prepared if you live near the coast and must evacuate it that time period - UNLESS you have been smart and gotten everything together at the first of the season as we are todl to do. I know that 90% of my friends and neighbors would be running around like chickens with their heads cut off if we were to get hit as they - just like I feel most out there do - because they don't prepare!

[sunny]

Just for you, boca_chris



Hurricane JUAN (26 OCT-01 NOV)

[gtalum]

FWIW, boca_chris, I don't think you're crazy or even wrong to predict an area where this thing might hit. I just think it's unreasonable to expect the general public to worry too much about a storm that's 5+ days out. It'll never happen. If you push too hard, you're bound to be wrong much of the time at those timeframes and that ends up breeding MORE complacency.

[Nimbus]

It is Sunday a good day to make sure your hurricane stocks are up and the car is full of gas.

I was out shopping this morning and it was very quiet hardly anyone out before 10 AM even the church traffic was light. I mentioned the possibility of a storm coming up the west coast of Florida to several people and nobody had heard about it?

There is no way Wilma is going to be ignored by the media if she makes major hurricane status after Katrina and Rita. I don't think she will sneak quietly north past the Tampa bay area without causing at least a shopping panic later in the week.

A repeat of the 1921 storm would be a horrendous event today with the population explosion on the barrier islands and downtown Tampa.

Looking at the October 1921 storm track it appears a digging trough must have pulled the storm east over the state.

Troughs tend to dig this time of year so a Charley scenario is surely possible with Wilma. The current westward trending of the model runs certainly should not signal an all clear message to the people in the Tampa bay area.

[Rainband]

Just for you, boca_chris



Hurricane JUAN (26 OCT-01 NOV)

Look at where that formed. WAY west of 24. I think that was the point

[MGC]

A Tampa landfall would just be the icing on the cake of one of the most horrible hurricane season in American history. Even if Tampa gets a Cat-2 direct hit it would still result in billions of more damage. Dennis, Katrina, Rita...we can't take much more......MGC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A Tampa landfall would just be the icing on the cake of one of the most horrible hurricane season in American history. Even if Tampa gets a Cat-2 direct hit it would still result in billions of more damage. Dennis, Katrina, Rita...we can't take much more......MGC

For now I feel slightly better seeing the models shift westward...
but things can change...everyone from the N GOM to the Keys should
watch this....

REMEMBER- NO ONE IS OUT OF THE WOODS YET FROM S. FL
TO THE PANHANDLE...

[artist]

Tampa Bay - one model run is not a trend...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Tampa Bay - one model run is not a trend...

whoops- fixed that...sorry been having little sleep lately with
a lot of busy work....

[artist]

no problem -

[sunny]

Just for you, boca_chris



Hurricane JUAN (26 OCT-01 NOV)

Look at where that formed. WAY west of 24. I think that was the point

I see where Juan formed. What boca_chris said was:

It's not going to Texas or LA this time...to o late in the season.

[gatorcane]

But Juan formed in in the central/west GOM. TD #24 has formed in the Caribbean. To make it that far west into the GOM this time of year would really surprise me. Most storms like to go NW into the SE GOM. From there it all depends what troughs and high pressures are around in the U.S. This time of year, the likelyhood of a short-wave trough dipping affecting a system in the GOM is very likely.

[sunny]

But Juan formed in in the central/west GOM. TD #24 has formed in the Caribbean. To make it that far west into the GOM this time of year would really surprise me. Most storms like to go NW into the SE GOM. From there it all depends what troughs and high pressures are around in the U.S. This time of year, the likelyhood of a short-wave trough dipping affecting a system in the GOM is very likely.

*sigh* - I can see where Juan formed. This was in reply to your original reply of saying 24 would not go into TX/LA - it was too late in the season.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

i am actually mroe nervous that we started in teh middle of the cone, then it started shifting, because the pattern seems to always shift back.
my girlfriend and I were watching some football when the halftime report mentioned a new depression that we need to watch for the Tampa area. we both looked at eachotehr like WHAT?! and I had to get right online to check. the thing we both asked is... where will the front be???
for tampa, it is all about the location and movement of the oncoming fronts this time of year.
crap

... but hey... at least the Bucs beat Miami today!!!!!

[gatorcane]

i am actually mroe nervous that we started in teh middle of the cone, then it started shifting, because the pattern seems to always shift back.
my girlfriend and I were watching some football when the halftime report mentioned a new depression that we need to watch for the Tampa area. we both looked at eachotehr like WHAT?! and I had to get right online to check. the thing we both asked is... where will the front be???
for tampa, it is all about the location and movement of the oncoming fronts this time of year.
crap

... but hey... at least the Bucs beat Miami today!!!!!

This time of year, cyclones that move into the Southern GOM tend to be be pulled N or NE ahead of troughs.

I am calling for a W. Peninsula of FL hit eventually but it looks like it may not be until next weekend.