Possible Similar Scenario 1921, Charley for Tampa Bay

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I don't want to alarm anybody but I'm growing very concerned about a major hurricane hitting Tampa Bay at the end of this week. Possible tracks are resembling Charley very closely but farther north. One tidbit of information to consider (as observed by poster Tampa Bay Hurricane):

The driest and hottest summer for Tampa Bay on record was 1921. That year a major hurricane struck Oct. 25th. Now, 2005 has surpassed 1921 as the hottest and driest year. It's Oct. 16 and now we have a developing situation.

Thoughts and comments welcome

[Rainband]

That is unthinkable

[Trader Ron]

The BIG question is where it makes the turn, or if it turns at all.

[gatorcane]

I would say a North turn and NE turn is highly likely given late October historical tracks.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is the main reason why I will be tracking this system so closely.
Even a possibility of such a thing is frightening.

[Rainband]

The BIG question is where it makes the turn, or if it turns at all.

If this current trend continues. The west coast of Florida will be in trouble. Maybe not in terms of Landfall but in terms of being on the east side of a Hurricane..sometime next week

[gatorcane]

If this current trend continues. The west coast of Florida will be in trouble. Maybe not in terms of Landfall but in terms of being on the east side of a Hurricane..sometime next week

The Tampa Bay area has been spared too long. It is their time I'm afraid.

I'm talking with folks in the area today and they are way too complacent because of how so many storms have missed Tampa Bay. Charley has made people even more complacent there.

[gatorcane]

I know many think this thread is premature but I'm really seeing a W. Coast of FL hit, Tampa Bay likely. I think once it becomes a T.S, I'll get more followers.

[bucman1]

Good afternoon Boca,couldn't agree with you more .

Just checking in during halftime of the Bucs vs Dolphins game and all the synoptics at this time looks like a west coast threat.

Whats your thinking and when?

[Scorpion]

I am thinking more on the lines of Key West.

[Trader Ron]

The BIG question is where it makes the turn, or if it turns at all.

If this current trend continues. The west coast of Florida will be in trouble. Maybe not in terms of Landfall but in terms of being on the east side of a Hurricane..sometime next week

The official NHC track in 126hrs has it at 23.2 N and 85.8 W. I realize it's subject to large errors. However, if that verifies i believe it will be far enough offshore to spare the West Coast.

Unless of course, it's a Katrina type Hurricane.

Tampa to 85.8 W is about 150-160 miles away.

[gtalum]

I know many think this thread is premature but I'm really seeing a W. Coast of FL hit, Tampa Bay likely.

I think we've all figured that out.

OTOH, I'll bet you $20 to your favorite charity that none of the Tampa Bay counties get TS-force or higher sustained winds. To me that's Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando counties.

[SamSagnella]

I agree about the west FL coast impact, but -- not saying it won't happen -- how can anyone POSSIBLY narrow it down to TB (or any particular 20 mile stretch of coastline) this far out?

Bottom line: Everyone from Mobile to Key West needs to watch this like a hawk.

[cinlfla]

I know many think this thread is premature but I'm really seeing a W. Coast of FL hit, Tampa Bay likely. I think once it becomes a T.S, I'll get more followers

IMO, I think somewhere from Alabama to Pcola is more likely, its seems the models are moving some to the left. I may be wrong who knows but then this is just my opinion. Looks like some dry air to its north. I'm not sure it will be anymore then a strong TS or maybe a Cat1 at best.

[gatorcane]

The official NHC track in 126hrs has it at 23.2 N and 85.8 W. I realize it's subject to large errors. However, if that verifies i believe it will be far enough offshore to spare the West Coast.

Unless of course, it's a Katrina type Hurricane.

Tampa to 85.8 W is about 150-160 miles away.

There is no way it will be 150-160 miles W of Tampa this time. It's late October and troughs continue to dig deeper into the GOM. Just no way I see the W coast getting spared unless turns NE quicker and scoots across extreme S. Florida as Scorpion suggests.

[bucman1]

When and what troughs are exspected to come down?

[Trader Ron]

The official NHC track in 126hrs has it at 23.2 N and 85.8 W. I realize it's subject to large errors. However, if that verifies i believe it will be far enough offshore to spare the West Coast.

Unless of course, it's a Katrina type Hurricane.

Tampa to 85.8 W is about 150-160 miles away.

There is no way it will be 150-160 miles W of Tampa this time. It's late October and troughs continue to dig deeper into the GOM. Just no way I see the W coast getting spared unless turns NE quicker and scoots across extreme S. Florida as Scorpion suggests.

Well start cooking the Crow. Someone will be wrong. It could be me.

[gatorcane]

Well I'll get some crow and store in the freezer should I be wrong.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I will be tracking this carefully...I have had too much crow this
year so for right now it's too early to tell....I'll have a better
idea Monday into Tuesday...But I am checking my hurricane
supplies right now just in case.

[floridahurricaneguy]

I know many think this thread is premature but I'm really seeing a W. Coast of FL hit, Tampa Bay likely.

I think we've all figured that out.

OTOH, I'll bet you $20 to your favorite charity that none of the Tampa Bay counties get TS-force or higher sustained winds. To me that's Sarasota, Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Hernando counties.

So your really convinced it wont affect Tampa! interesting.

Matt