The cone of doom, destruction and general mayhem

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SkeetoBite
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The cone of doom, destruction and general mayhem

#1 Postby SkeetoBite » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:07 am

A great many people are caught off guard because they watch the "line" in the official NHC forecasts. We have created the following as a public service to help folks understand the true meaning of the "Cone of uncertainty".

Image
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chadtm80

#2 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:09 am

Great Feature Skeetobite.. Thanks again!
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#3 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:10 am

what an excellent post skeetobite - your maps, this, etc. are really appreciated! Thanks for all your hard work!
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:11 am

Bravo Skeet. :)
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#5 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:12 am

just had an idea - could you also post this in the hurrcane prep forum? Think it would be good to have it around.
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#6 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:13 am

At least he didn't ask to use my tradmarked "CONE OF DEATH".... :D
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#7 Postby Recurve » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:22 am

Since it says "could be here," maybe show the center outside the cone, since at five days that is certainly possible. The graphic reinforces the idea that the center will always be exactly where they say it will be (somewhere in the cone), and especially at 5 days out, we know how wrong that can be.
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#8 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 11:23 am

:clap: Great job as always skeet!
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#9 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 1:40 pm

think this is very important for all to see - let's try to keep it up towards the top - or maybe even sticky?

thanks skeeterbite.
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#10 Postby ChaserUK » Sun Oct 16, 2005 2:32 pm

very good skeeterbite!

I wonder if I will ever see a graphic like that for Atlantic storms or Microcanes like Vince in future?
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#11 Postby cjrciadt » Sun Oct 16, 2005 2:56 pm

Thank you!!!!!!!!! this should be stapled to the head of all the cable mets that only talk about the center of the track.
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#12 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 3:01 pm

AWESOME job!!!!
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#13 Postby NCHurricane » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:41 pm

Great graphic, Skeetobite!

Maybe, just maybe, the media will start looking more at the total storm than just the eye. Graphics like this will help for sure.

Keep up the awesome work. 8-)

Chuck
http://www.nchurricane.com
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#14 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 4:55 pm

Skeetobite - ever thought of contacting your local mets to see if they would be interested in using your 'map'?
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#15 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 16, 2005 5:51 pm

And I believe that the cone represents a 60% probability that the storm will track within that area. So there is a 40% chance it'll track outside the cone. And, remember, the cone is ONLY based upon the 10-year average error, it is not meant to represent any confidence in the current track.
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#16 Postby artist » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:20 pm

bump
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#17 Postby beachbum_al » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:36 pm

bumping because everyone must see and read
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#18 Postby Swimdude » Sun Oct 16, 2005 9:46 pm

Very impressive illustration.
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#19 Postby tornadochaser86 » Mon Oct 17, 2005 12:33 am

love the illustration
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#20 Postby StrongWind » Mon Oct 17, 2005 1:21 am

Concrete examples are always good too. Out of curiosity: what's the largest 5-day landfall error that there's been?
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