Monsoon Forecast Contest!

[MonsoonDude]

Hello all, im new my name is Kevin Martin. I love weather, and love to forecast it! I live in Southern California, The Inland Empire. Ive seen all kinds of weather..Mostly Thunderstorms in the Summer from the deserts...those are called Monsoonal Thunderstorms...Ive seen snow, winds on a clear day to 100+, fog 1/4mile or less dense, marine layer, beautiful sunsets, and Rocket Launches from the Nearby Vandenberg Air Force Base, which puts on a great sunset display if at the right time! Ive seen it all..Recently a went to Tulsa to Chase the Severe Thunderstorms of April 19th 2003..Caught 1 tornado on tape near Hectorville! my first Plains Chase! worth it for a 20hr drive..

my monsoon Forecast first pop-up thunderstorm will be in SE Arizona probably a little SSE of Tucson,AZ, will be between May 24th-27th.
Anyone else have a forecast date? lets see who gets the closest..and because this is on the thread, its proof someone was right:)

For those of you who have not seen a Vandenberg Sunset Launch like I said i have seen, here is what one looks like!


When the sun has set, the sunlight is still in the upper atmosphere. That is what you get when the missile gets high enough.


As the missile gets high, its now in full sunlight while on the ground the sun has set..That plume is a result of the rocket stage separation and expanding the atmosphere.


When the missile finally has left the atmosphere it leaves behind a brilliant vapor trail seen for miles..This can be seen as far as Las Vegas, and Phoenix from The Central California Coast!

Thanks!
Kev

[weatherlover427]

Some nice pics ya got there Kev. I see those all the time from here.

[azsnowman]

Well, let's see, I live approx 180 miles NE of the "Valley of the Smog (sun)" in the White Mountains, Az's largest mountain range. I'll *stick my neck out* and say the nonsoons will start here on or around 26 June.

Dennis

[azsnowman]

BTW....WELCOME!

Dennis

[chadtm80]

Welcome monsoondude... Great to have you here Let me know if you need anything

[M2]

The Arizona Monsoon does not normally begin that early, and
has several criteria for 'onset":
For Phoenix: 3 consecutive days of dewpoints 55 degrees or higher
For Tucson: 3 consecutive days of dewpoints 53 degrees or higher
General: Seasonal wind shift from the West-East to East-West

For the Phoenix Valley and Tucson, the 'Soon does not
normally begin until after July 4th, depending on El Nino/La Nina
activity and how she's firing down in Mexico. It's easy to watch progress
on the radars and sattellites well beforehand.

If it starts early this year, I'll be surprised since the past few it has
been late, and sort of wimpy-wimpy. We had 3 days within
one week in mid-July last year where severe storms hit us hard, then
it just tuckered out for most of the remaining summer. This year does
not bode any better just by looking at the SSTs, patterns, where we
are with the Ninos, etc. Hope I'm wrong, but I'd say July for us.
New Mexico will see the start of their monsoon season a month or so
before we do (normally), so watch them too. Plus the Four Corners High
must be set up and we must bake down here for several weeks in the
113-degree range first...all part of the process.

[weatherlover427]

Sounds about right to me. TUS's average start date is July 3rd, and their criterion is 3 days of a dewpoint at or above 54 degrees F. But they are 1,000 feet higher in elevation than you in PHX; so their highs are a bit cooler.

[Aslkahuna]

get a thunderstorm here SE of Tucson during the period of May 24-27 it will NOT be a monsoonal thunderstorm but a typical High Baser precursor storm which usually starts to appear 1-2 MONTHS prior to the onset of the monsoon here in AZ. The dewpoint criteria are NWS's way of telling the public when the onset is here. The actual criteria for our as well as ANY monsoon is when the seasonal wind shift in the Troposphere occurs. In order for the AZ monsoon to occur, the Central American and Mexican phases of the North American Monsoon must be in place and expanding north. The monsoon actually becomes evident in NM before shifting into AZ which it can do quite quickly and vigorously. We are in the shift from a Niño to a Niña at the present time with a negative PDO. The last two Niño's also ended in the same manner with the PDO either transitioning to a negative phase or there already. While Niña can support an early start and a wet monsoon, it does not do so until it has become established for a period of time. Suffice it to say that neither the 1995 nor the 1998 monsoon had an early start though the latter was on time. Beyond that I'll say no more since I plan to expound on this later on my homepage.

Incidentally, before everyone goes off the deep end, the earliest ever date for the onset of the AZ monsoon was June 17, 2000. For SE AZ, the average date is July 3-7 and the latest was July 17,1995.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

OK then ... well I now predict June 26th.

(that came to me while en el bano this morning :o )

[Guest]

Welcome monsoonDude to Storm2K.........Nice pics too.......I hope you enjoy it here!!!!!:)