I think this may be a hurricane in 24-36 hours...

[Anonymous]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, safe to say at this point...TD-24 will probably become Wilma later today. By tonight at 11pm, I estimate winds will probably be 45-60 mph....then by Monday morning, likely peaking at that term "Just below hurricane strength" around 5am Monday.

I think our system will become a hurricane Monday afternoon/night, followed by a more rapid increase in strength, up to Category 4 intensity of 125 kt before making landfall in extreme Western Cuba....I think the track is very unpredictable, but the NHC seems to have a good handle with a west/southwesterly track in next 3 days...followed by a turn north into Cuba by day 5.

A few things are a bit disturbing to me...

1. The upper level environment
Conditions for the future of TD-24 look very, very bright. The upper level anticyclone is sitting over the system, and ventalation is excellent on the system. As Stacy Stewart mentioned at 5am:::
... THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS... AND DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER 48
HOURS. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BECOME MAJOR
HURRICANES.

An ideal series of outflow channels connected as it hits Cuba, and letting loose...but not before the systems heading back towards another area of land. This might be able to keep "WILMA" an extreme hurricane after Cuba...atleast at first.

2. The track
The track is more concerning, because it has the eye crossing over the smallest area of Western Cuba, the area Hurricane Lili in October 2002 crossed at STRENGTHENED while crossing. So, if we have a strong Category 4 hurricane....quickly accelerating as it crosses a narrow strip of unmountian-filled Cuba, then stays over still warm water...keeping a good upper level environment, then we might see it even maintain Category 4 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico (ALTHOUGH I WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING BEFORE "FLORIDA" IN THE FUTURE).

This is a long way out...but we are in for a LONG WEEK...atleast.

~MIKE

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where's your end game Mike? I know its early but don't leave us hanging...

[Anonymous]

Southwest Florida at this point, but all of the Gulf from Mississippi eastward should watch.

[johngaltfla]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, safe to say at this point...TD-24 will probably become Wilma later today. By tonight at 11pm, I estimate winds will probably be 45-60 mph....then by Monday morning, likely peaking at that term "Just below hurricane strength" around 5am Monday.

I think our system will become a hurricane Monday afternoon/night, followed by a more rapid increase in strength, up to Category 4 intensity of 125 kt before making landfall in extreme Western Cuba....I think the track is very unpredictable, but the NHC seems to have a good handle with a west/southwesterly track in next 3 days...followed by a turn north into Cuba by day 5.

A few things are a bit disturbing to me...

1. The upper level environment
Conditions for the future of TD-24 look very, very bright. The upper level anticyclone is sitting over the system, and ventalation is excellent on the system. As Stacy Stewart mentioned at 5am:::
... THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS... AND DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER 48
HOURS. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BECOME MAJOR
HURRICANES.

An ideal series of outflow channels connected as it hits Cuba, and letting loose...but not before the systems heading back towards another area of land. This might be able to keep "WILMA" an extreme hurricane after Cuba...atleast at first.

2. The track
The track is more concerning, because it has the eye crossing over the smallest area of Western Cuba, the area Hurricane Lili in October 2002 crossed at STRENGTHENED while crossing. So, if we have a strong Category 4 hurricane....quickly accelerating as it crosses a narrow strip of unmountian-filled Cuba, then stays over still warm water...keeping a good upper level environment, then we might see it even maintain Category 4 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico (ALTHOUGH I WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING BEFORE "FLORIDA" IN THE FUTURE).

This is a long way out...but we are in for a LONG WEEK...atleast.

~MIKE

Mike, this is unfortunately the take our local met was indicating, but not yet forecasting. He warned and reminded everyone that there are only 3 possible paths for these storms, and two were very unlikely (hitting Central America and rapidly turning NE into the Bahamas). That leaves the option you're highlighting. I'm afraid everyone from Cedar Key to Key West should pay very, very strict attention to this storm.

There is a lot of conjecture here that this storm can not intensify. Some of our most damaging storms in Florida's history follow the path that you discuss.

For those that have not read the book, Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms should do so today. Because by Tuesday, you should be in 72 hour prep mode, IMHO, if you live in SW Florida as I do.

[Anonymous]

I've been warning and stressing all year...October/November LATE SEASON Major hurricanes came out of the Caribbean into the SE Gulf, and hit Florida TONS in the 1930s-1940s. We have been lucky not to have seen any recently...but this COULD be a classic late season Caribbean-Gulf Hurricane.

[Lowpressure]

Southwest Florida at this point, but all of the Gulf from Mississippi eastward should watch.

I am thinking Cedar Key area myself. It however appears she will be much stronger than the cat 2 I put in the poll here on a another thread yesterday. Dual outflow channels, could we have a realistic shot a cat 5 again?

[Anonymous]

Yes...however I only expect a Cat 3 or lower if it does get to Florida.

[Lowpressure]

NHC seems rather bullish on this one too. I can not remember a season with more TD warranting Hurricane Watches. Conditions will become ideal-again.

[johngaltfla]

I've been warning and stressing all year...October/November LATE SEASON Major hurricanes came out of the Caribbean into the SE Gulf, and hit Florida TONS in the 1930s-1940s. We have been lucky not to have seen any recently...but this COULD be a classic late season Caribbean-Gulf Hurricane.

Alot of people forget that in 1921 a storm hit Tampa in the last week of November that flooded the you know what out of the city basically causing it to be rebuilt from scratch.

A Cat 3 heading straight for the bay would probably do about $50 billion in damage easily.

[linkerweather]

1921 storm was in october.

[johngaltfla]

1921 storm was in october.

You are quite correct. I'm getting my years crossed up. Thanks for correcting me...

[SkeetoBite]

I've been warning and stressing all year...October/November LATE SEASON Major hurricanes came out of the Caribbean into the SE Gulf, and hit Florida TONS in the 1930s-1940s. We have been lucky not to have seen any recently...but this COULD be a classic late season Caribbean-Gulf Hurricane.

Alot of people forget that in 1921 a storm hit Tampa in the last week of November that flooded the you know what out of the city basically causing it to be rebuilt from scratch.

A Cat 3 heading straight for the bay would probably do about $50 billion in damage easily.

This is a great concern since Tampa is on the same list as New Orleans for worst case scenarios. Estimates put 25 feet of water in downtown Tampa and make St. Petersburg an island with a major hurricane entering the bay. Not to be an alarmist, just pointing out what the "experts" have been saying this season. It's a little early to predict this event. About 72 hours from now will tell the tale.

[johngaltfla]

I've been warning and stressing all year...October/November LATE SEASON Major hurricanes came out of the Caribbean into the SE Gulf, and hit Florida TONS in the 1930s-1940s. We have been lucky not to have seen any recently...but this COULD be a classic late season Caribbean-Gulf Hurricane.

Alot of people forget that in 1921 a storm hit Tampa in the last week of November that flooded the you know what out of the city basically causing it to be rebuilt from scratch.

A Cat 3 heading straight for the bay would probably do about $50 billion in damage easily.

This is a great concern since Tampa is on the same list as New Orleans for worst case scenarios. Estimates put 25 feet of water in downtown Tampa and make St. Petersburg an island with a major hurricane entering the bay. Not to be an alarmist, just pointing out what the "experts" have been saying this season. It's a little early to predict this event. About 72 hours from now will tell the tale.

Agreed. And the scenarios my friends in the Emergency Management community told me about said that the $50 billion was conservative at best. There really isn't a good scenario anywhere between the Tampa area down to Marco Island because of the overdevelopment of our coast.

I think by Tuesday we'll all know more, but being back in the "Cone of Death" is of little comfort due to the history of storms that form this time of year in that area....

[MiamiensisWx]

~Floydbuster, do you expect weakening if it approaches Florida because of shear? If not, why do you expect weakening before a possible Florida landfall?

[Windtalker1]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, safe to say at this point...TD-24 will probably become Wilma later today. By tonight at 11pm, I estimate winds will probably be 45-60 mph....then by Monday morning, likely peaking at that term "Just below hurricane strength" around 5am Monday.

I think our system will become a hurricane Monday afternoon/night, followed by a more rapid increase in strength, up to Category 4 intensity of 125 kt before making landfall in extreme Western Cuba....I think the track is very unpredictable, but the NHC seems to have a good handle with a west/southwesterly track in next 3 days...followed by a turn north into Cuba by day 5.

A few things are a bit disturbing to me...

1. The upper level environment
Conditions for the future of TD-24 look very, very bright. The upper level anticyclone is sitting over the system, and ventalation is excellent on the system. As Stacy Stewart mentioned at 5am:::
... THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS... AND DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER 48
HOURS. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BECOME MAJOR
HURRICANES.

An ideal series of outflow channels connected as it hits Cuba, and letting loose...but not before the systems heading back towards another area of land. This might be able to keep "WILMA" an extreme hurricane after Cuba...atleast at first.

2. The track
The track is more concerning, because it has the eye crossing over the smallest area of Western Cuba, the area Hurricane Lili in October 2002 crossed at STRENGTHENED while crossing. So, if we have a strong Category 4 hurricane....quickly accelerating as it crosses a narrow strip of unmountian-filled Cuba, then stays over still warm water...keeping a good upper level environment, then we might see it even maintain Category 4 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico (ALTHOUGH I WOULD EXPECT WEAKENING BEFORE "FLORIDA" IN THE FUTURE).

This is a long way out...but we are in for a LONG WEEK...atleast.

~MIKE

Mike, this is unfortunately the take our local met was indicating, but not yet forecasting. He warned and reminded everyone that there are only 3 possible paths for these storms, and two were very unlikely (hitting Central America and rapidly turning NE into the Bahamas). That leaves the option you're highlighting. I'm afraid everyone from Cedar Key to Key West should pay very, very strict attention to this storm.

There is a lot of conjecture here that this storm can not intensify. Some of our most damaging storms in Florida's history follow the path that you discuss.

For those that have not read the book, Florida Hurricanes and Tropical Storms should do so today. Because by Tuesday, you should be in 72 hour prep mode, IMHO, if you live in SW Florida as I do.

Florida is only about 90 miles wide in SW Florida...I would even say if this Storm is a Cat 4 when it hits and it hits the Ft Myers area, then everyone on both sides of the coast of Fl will feel Hurricane Force Winds....The East Coast as well must prepare as if this was heading straight for them from the east instead of the west.

[CharleySurvivor]

She best stay away from here! LOL... I would hate to see another big event around here, we certainly don't need it.

[JTD]

Yes...however I only expect a Cat 3 or lower if it does get to Florida.

Due to what? Increasing shear?

[Anonymous]

It will eventually (HOPEFULLY) loose the outflow channels, and the high octane fuel...plus there will be some increasing shear.