Will south florida's luck run out and when?

[Patrick99]

THe second one looks a lot like Donna.

Just a question of when. A repeat of 1926 would probably knock Miami *back* into the 1920s.

[arkess7]

well its been what 13 years since Andrew hit down there...........its gona happen again....one day....its only a matter of time....

[MiamiensisWx]

*BUMP*

It will be very interesting where TD 24 will go... a Florida landfall/close pass is very possible...

[tracyswfla]

*BUMP*

It will be very interesting where TD 24 will go... a Florida landfall/close pass is very possible...

tick tock tick tock!

[MiamiensisWx]

Here are some possible track scenarios for TD 24...

[Ivanhater]

Here are some possible track scenarios for TD 24...

wow, that would be one strong trough

[MiamiensisWx]

wow, that would be one strong trough

A more Charley-like track may also be possible...

[Ivanhater]

wow, that would be one strong trough

A more Charley-like track may also be possible...

i agree

[Derek Ortt]

In 1926, a major hurricane that formed in the Carib, passed only 30 miles east of the remains of Miami. Miami nearly had 2 major canes in the same year and that Oct 1926 storm may be a good analog here

[MiamiensisWx]

In 1926, a major hurricane that formed in the Carib, passed only 30 miles east of the remains of Miami. Miami nearly had 2 major canes in the same year and that Oct 1926 storm may be a good analog here

Here is the track of that storm...

[gatorcane]

South Florida gets more hits from the Caribbean and GOM then it does from the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

How about the Major Hurricane that hit Tampa Bay in 1921? The track is very similar to the above (and a very similar date) except push the northeast turn later into Tampa. Someone can dig up this track...

[Ivanhater]

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at192106.asp

[Nimbus]

Although the 1921 storm was only a cat 2 at landfall the storm surge completely overwashed the barrier islands. After the storm Hog island was split leaving Honeymoon island off the coast of Dunedin seperated from Caladesi island and Clearwater beach.

Downtown Tampa is very low and Tampa bay would amplify a similar storm surge. There has been a huge increase in population and real estate around the Tampa bay area since the 1921 storm.

I am glad the NHC did not play down the potential for an October storm like this. Many folks around this area including myself remember only the weak October tropical storms that we have had in recent years. The local forecasters may need to use the 1921 storm as an example of what a major hurricane winding down could do to our area.

[StormFury]

The latest run of the GFS and GFDL models take the system more to the north...probably with a landfall near Tampa. However, we all know how a lot of the global models discount the strength of troughs; this especially happened with Charley! The slower this system moves the more bad news for S. Florida. Why? Well, this will allow time for the trough to dig deeper into the GOM and if this happens when Wilma is at a lower latitude than that of the Keys, there will be ample time for the trough to steer Wilma ENE towards the southern portion of the peninsula. Whether it moves in a SW to NW direction up the east coast or it criss-crosses in a west to east motion across the southern peninsula depends on the intensity of the cold front.

Although the latest model runs take the system slightly further away from S. Florida, expect frequent changes in track and intensity forecasts. My feeling is that Wilma will either take South Florida or West Central Florida.

[StormFury]

According to the NHC statement, many of the global models are underestimating the strength of the future trough. With this said, I would say the greatest threat would be south of Tampa Bay. Oh, here is their quote..."IF ANYTHING... THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO
DAMPEN THESE TYPES OF SHORTWAVES TOO MUCH... SO MY FEELING IS THAT
THE GFS... GFDL... UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAYS 2-3
AND... THEREFORE... THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN MORE THAN
INDICATED BY THOSE MODELS."

[Weatherfreak14]

IMO it could come off a bit north than that. I expect it closer to the east coast than that.

[Lindaloo]

I do not understand what the topic starter means about Florida's luck running out. Florida had major problems last season with hurricanes. Guess this topic starter forgot about Charley? I am confused.

[tracyswfla]

I do not understand what the topic starter means about Florida's luck running out. Florida had major problems last season with hurricanes. Guess this topic starter forgot about Charley? I am confused.

Perhaps "luck" for this year only.

[wzrgirl1]

I do not understand what the topic starter means about Florida's luck running out. Florida had major problems last season with hurricanes. Guess this topic starter forgot about Charley? I am confused.

yes I meant this year....