New England Hurricane?

[wxwatcher91]

sorry this should be the last post asking if we could get a storm up here. the average I believe is three "maybes" a year

anyway this one looks a lot less than a maybe however it was included in the forecast discussion so what the heck lol

here is the excerpt from the AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1113 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005:

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...THE CMC GLOBAL BRINGS A TROPICAL SYSTEM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD MID TO LATE WEEK. HOWEVER...ITS THE ONLY MODEL
SUPPORTING SUCH A SOLUTION. THE 00Z ECMWF AND UKMET DO IN FACT HAVE
A TROPICAL SYSTEM SOMEWHERE VICINITY FROM CUBA TO CANCUN...HOWEVER
NEITHER MODEL (INCLUDING THE 00Z GFS) BRING THE TROPICAL LOW ANY
FARTHER N THAN THE GULF OF MX.

man all of southern New England would be underwater if we had a cyclone up here! we have gotten 15 inches of rain in the past week here in Keene, NH and most places in southern New England have gotten around 10 to 18 inches in the past week.

well in any case have fun laughing at yet another "New England Hurricane?" post lol

[Steve H.]

It s not totally out of the question, as a lingering trough coming in, or slow moving trough could have the storm run the coast. But I think the CMC is too fast with this system, and it SHOULD cut out to the SE of New England, even SE of Hatteras. A storm coming into New England now would be devastating, since the grounds are saturated and trees would be easily uprooted. The only way I see this happening is if a stalled or slow moving front allows a NNE movement and some phasing with energy coming down with the trough. Could happen, but its the outlier now. Heck, we don't know if it will make it to the GOM yet Most reliable guidance puts it in the Yucatan channel/SE GOM now, with the exception to the NOGAPS, but let's what future runs bring. Interesting week ahead. Let's hope it stays away from the Northern GOM

[wxwatcher91]

yeah the consensus is 98 striking central America somewhere. however I'm going to put my money on 98 turning north into the GOM and striking the Florida Peninsula = Charley senario? (not necesarily strength- just talking about track)

anyway I very much doubt a New England strike because so many factors really have to come together to steer a storm up here. right position and strength of the Bermuda High and no westerlies to take the storm out to sea and the storm cant be too strong or it will tend to recurve more...

trees being uprooted easily... yep... but might not have the chance because we are looking at some big winds coming in tomorrow behind this current storm. high wind watch in effect. the NWS mentioned trees could likely be uprooted easily tomorrow...

[Duffy]

we got ten and a half inches of rain here last weekend and its raining again now!!!!!!
i would love to get a Storm up this way.its been awhile..we've had remnants of systems, but the last official Tropical Advisory for a System for us up this way was Floyd in Sept of 99, we came soooooooo close with Ophelia, oh man i was sooooooooo upset
I want a big Storm!!!
Incidently they say tommorrow the winds will pick up big time up here as the Storm Cranks up in the Maritimes

[wxwatcher91]

we also had Charley last year dont forget! wasnt too bad though...

I want a storm up here too.

[Duffy]

yes but it was the remnants, not a full blown storm

[wxmann_91]

I want a storm up here too.

Be careful what you wish for.

[wxwatcher91]

I want a storm up here too.

Be careful what you wish for.

yeah I know and I've been told it many times before however I've been wishing for a long time and havent gotten anything so I dont think anymore wishing will change much

[Duffy]

i think the last big Tropical Storm, we got up here was that Big Gale that blew up out of Hurricane Grace, it later was based on a book called "The Perfect Storm"....two months earlier we had Hurricane Bob
So its been nearly 14 years since the Perfect Storm,,,,so we're due

[wxwatcher91]

sorry, a little off topic:

we are also due for a tornado here in Cheshire County, NH. from the 1950s up till about 1990 we were averaging about 1 tornado a year. since then we have had one in 1997 and that has been it.

[krysof]

sorry, a little off topic:

we are also due for a tornado here in Cheshire County, NH. from the 1950s up till about 1990 we were averaging about 1 tornado a year. since then we have had one in 1997 and that has been it.

now new jersey is due for a hurricane, we only had close calls but no direct hit since the early 1900's no major since 1821

[wxwatcher91]

sorry, a little off topic:

we are also due for a tornado here in Cheshire County, NH. from the 1950s up till about 1990 we were averaging about 1 tornado a year. since then we have had one in 1997 and that has been it.

now new jersey is due for a hurricane, we only had close calls but no direct hit since the early 1900's no major since 1821

New Jersey is a hard place to hit because it's kinda tucked in between North Carolina and New England. if a hurricane is coming up the coast it will most likely either turn out to sea, turn to the NNE so it remains over water but does not recurve, or strike along the Carolina coast. turning out to sea is self-explanatory lol; if it turns just to the NNE then it would have a chance at New England or would turn out to sea - for it to hit New Jersey it would have to do a funky little turn towards the west. if the hurricane struck the Carolina coast then there's a chance for New Jersey to maybe get some action, however the hurricane would have weakened a lot and the center would most likely remain off-shore of New Jersey. and also there is a chance for the hurricane still to turn out to sea and actually the a large chance however that it would strike New England.

the best chance for a storm to strike New Jersey would be an Isabel 2003 situation with the storm beginning to turn to the northwest early. I mean Isabel was only about 300 miles away from a New Jersey strike... and when that may seem like a large distance, it's actually pretty close in considering that just a motion just slightly north of what Isabel had say 3 days before she struck, would have the storm strike much further north

okay ...wow I wrote a good amount there. well I'm sure with increased activity, the places that are "overdue" will get their share because with more storms come the increased chance for a strike.

[Brent]

yeah the consensus is 98 striking central America somewhere. however I'm going to put my money on 98 turning north into the GOM and striking the Florida Peninsula = Charley senario? (not necesarily strength- just talking about track)

I do not see this going into Central America... I never really did. I think slowly westward through 3-4 days and then northward to some extent. Very uncertain though. NHC track looks good for now.

[wxwatcher91]

sorry I guess I should have been more clear. I meant the MODEL consensus (of this morning). I too agree with the NHC with track on this one... of course any movement would keep it inside the cone (I know, I know: the cone is only larger because the movement is slower)

anyway, with the track that the NHC has maybe 24 (Wilma) will make it up to New England... it would cross Florida and then continue on a north-northeast path grazing NC and then maybe striking up here... (not my forecast at all though mind you) right now I'm going to stay within 5 days and just go with the NHC on this one for now. strength-wisem, I think the NHC was a bit conservative and most likely 24 (Wilma) will be >100kt by 120hrs

[krysof]

sorry, a little off topic:

we are also due for a tornado here in Cheshire County, NH. from the 1950s up till about 1990 we were averaging about 1 tornado a year. since then we have had one in 1997 and that has been it.

now new jersey is due for a hurricane, we only had close calls but no direct hit since the early 1900's no major since 1821

New Jersey is a hard place to hit because it's kinda tucked in between North Carolina and New England. if a hurricane is coming up the coast it will most likely either turn out to sea, turn to the NNE so it remains over water but does not recurve, or strike along the Carolina coast. turning out to sea is self-explanatory lol; if it turns just to the NNE then it would have a chance at New England or would turn out to sea - for it to hit New Jersey it would have to do a funky little turn towards the west. if the hurricane struck the Carolina coast then there's a chance for New Jersey to maybe get some action, however the hurricane would have weakened a lot and the center would most likely remain off-shore of New Jersey. and also there is a chance for the hurricane still to turn out to sea and actually the a large chance however that it would strike New England.

the best chance for a storm to strike New Jersey would be an Isabel 2003 situation with the storm beginning to turn to the northwest early. I mean Isabel was only about 300 miles away from a New Jersey strike... and when that may seem like a large distance, it's actually pretty close in considering that just a motion just slightly north of what Isabel had say 3 days before she struck, would have the storm strike much further north

okay ...wow I wrote a good amount there. well I'm sure with increased activity, the places that are "overdue" will get their share because with more storms come the increased chance for a strike.

also a chance would probably be for a hurricane in the bahamas coming straight north like the long island express but further west, the center would remain just offshore the carolinas, and it would come up to new jersey

[jimvb]

The MA forecaster mentioned that only the CMC supports the idea of a tropical system hitting New England and the Canadian Maritimes. I just looked and found that NOGAPS and UKMET also show this system (maybe Tropical Storm Alpha?). MM5 shows the entire world turning dark blue - I think it's showing a flu epidemic instead.

Is this going to be a tropical system, or an ordinary extratropical low or nor'easter instead?

[wxwatcher91]

(maybe Tropical Storm Alpha?)

no this is definitely Wilma (TD 24) we are talking about. I think the chance is rising for a New England strike here.

here's another excerpt from the AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
655 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005:

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BASICALLY CONTINUITY WITH YDY AFTNS BOX FCST...MESHING IN COMBO
NAM/GFS POP GUIDANCE MON NIGHT (DRY) - TUE (SCT SHWRS OR SPRINKLES)
AND MODIFIED TEMPS DOWN A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK PER MORE ROBUST GFS
CAA...PROBABLY TOO ROBUST AND DID NOT BUY COMPLETELY INTO THE NEW
00Z/16 GFS MEX MOS.

CK 00Z/16 GGEM AND GFS SINGLE MEMBER OP RUNS HAS THE TROP SYSTEM
PASSING WELL OUT INTO THE ATLC. DAY 8-10 EC SINGLE MEMBER FROM
12Z/15 DITTO ABOVE AND THE 00Z/16 EC HAS IT IN THE ERN GMEX.

THIS SHOULD BECOME WILMA AND TPC FAVORS BECOMING BIG BEFORE
EXITING TROPICS VCNTY W CUBA.

FWIW GGEM...HAS QUITE A PATH OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE OCEAN WELL E
OF THE COAST (OFFSHORE)...THE SUGGESTION THAT THIS HAS AN NEWD
OFFSHORE TRACK FM THIS OP RUN MEMBER.
&&

...boy if Wilma comes up here, we would see the worst flooding on record in southern New England.

[Duffy]

Bring her on baby, we're waiting for her here on the Coast of Maine!
Come on Wilma!!!!

[wxwatcher91]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 161449
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1049 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005

UPDATED LONG TERM

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
...DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...THEN POSSIBLE RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND...

ALL 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON THIS PERIOD...WITH
REX TYPE BLOCK OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLC (RIDGE OVER GREENLAND AND
CLOSED LOW EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND)...BUT THEN DIVERGE ON THE AMPLITUDE
OF NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC EXTENDING EASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE HIGH PLAINS.

AS FOR THE DAILY DETAILS...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACKING A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC EARLY THU...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC TROF/CDFNT MOVING OFSHR. WEAK CAA OVERSPREADS THE
REGION THU FOLLOWED BY HI PRES NOSING SEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI
WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CURRENT FORECAST SUPPORTS
THIS THEME...SO ONLY CHANGE MAY BE TO RAISE TEMPS A BIT BASED ON 00Z
MDL GUID AND TRENDS.

BY DAYS 6-7/SAT-SUN 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS IS IN STRONG
DISAGREEMENT WITH ALL OTHER MODELS ON THE AMPLITUDE OF NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE HIGH
PLAINS. 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC AND HPC ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SUPPORT A
MORE AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THIS REGION. GIVEN ALL MODELS
(INCLUDING THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS) SUPPORT A POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY S OF THE ALEUTIANS...A MORE AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM PATTERN
SEEMS REASONABLE. IN ADDITION...NEW 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM ITS
00Z RUN AND NOW SUPPORTS A MORE AMPLIFIED TROF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES SAT AND SUN. THEREFORE (AND UNFORTUNATELY) WE
WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

DON/T WANT TO GET AHEAD OF OURSELVES...HOWEVER ITS WORTH MENTIONING
ALL MDLS INCLUDING LATEST TPC FORECAST HAVE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA THU-FRI. GIVEN A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH
OUR CURRENT SATURATED GROUND...THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.
06Z GFS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY MODEL THAT ACCELERATES THE TROPICAL
LOW FAST ENOUGH NORTHWARD TO INTERACT WITH GREAT LAKES TROF. OTHER
MODELS SUGGEST GREAT LAKES TROF WOULD NOT PICK UP TROPICAL LOW OR
STEER IT WELL S OF NEW ENGLAND. STAY TUNED.

[wxwatcher91]

000
FXUS61 KBOX 171033 AAA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..FINAL MID SHIFT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
633 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
BREEZY WITH SEVERAL CFPS. NORMALLY ACCESSED ENS SITES ARE N/A FOR
PARTICULARS WHETHER TUE OR WED CFP IS STRONGER (MODEL DISPARITY AS
WELL AS NEXT WEEKENDS RAIN).

TUES/WED: BELIEVE THERE IS NOW ENOUGH OP MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST
THE CFP TUE IS NOT QUITE AS WINDY AS THAT OF LATE WED. THIS PER NEW
00Z GFS/UK/EC VS THE OPPOSING NAM/GGEM SUGGESTING TUE IS MORE IMPT
THAN WED. HAVE LED WITH IMPLENTING GFS WIND AND WNA GUIDANCE WHICH
IS NOTABLY HIGHER THIS FCST FOR LATE WED. CONFIDENCE MODEST.

THU-FRI: NEW GFS WIND FIELDS. HIGH CONF FCST WITH NEW OP
RUN GFS/ECMWF AGREEMENT.

THE WEEKEND: THE NEW GFS/UK/ECMWF ALL IN AGREEMENT ON NEW DEVELOPING
LOW PRES APPALCHIANS AND RESULTING IN RAIN. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER..CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR SOME SORT OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN HERE NEXT SUNDAY OR MON. THERE
IS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE START IN S
NHAND NW MA IF IT GETS GOING SATURDAY.

ALSO... THE DOOR IS WIDE OPEN ON HOW THE E COAST TROF EVOLVES NEXT-
SUN AND BEYOND THRU NEXT WED...WHICHA MAY HAVE A BEARING ON ANY
TROPICAL CONNECTIVITY FM VCNTY FL.

BOTTOM LINE...A GOOD WEEK OF WX...AND DECENT RECOVERY OF SFC SOIL
CAPACITY...BEFORE NEXT SIG RAIN IN ABOUT A WEEK.