How Strong will TD 24 get?

[Florida_TSR]

Thoughts?

[Florida_TSR]

CAT 3

[Scorpion]

Cat 2

[krysof]

Cat 2

Imagine if it becomes as storng as Rita and Katrina if not stronger.
Very impossible for that to happen.

[HURAKAN]

I just hope this thing doesn't become anything powerful, to many disasters already this year. By the way, in the Cat. 5 column, don't give up with Emily just yet!

[arkess7]

cat 2

[wxmann_91]

It's far too early to tell.

If this stays over the Caribbean for a few days then this could easily bomb to a major hurricane, even possibly a Cat 4/5. If this drifts over land and then moves over the GOM, then a Cat 2 or 3 seems more likely.

[truballer#1]

I think itll be a cat 4 close to cat 5

[WindRunner]

After seeing two consecutive GFDL runs peak it at 153kts, I wouldn't be surprised to see it, but it's way too early to say.

[truballer#1]

After seeing two consecutive GFDL runs peak it at 153kts, I wouldn't be surprised to see it, but it's way too early to say.

gfdl says 153kts?

[jkt21787]

After seeing two consecutive GFDL runs peak it at 153kts, I wouldn't be surprised to see it, but it's way too early to say.

gfdl says 153kts?

The 0z indicated a cat 5, the 6z indicated only a cat 3. Not sure where this other GFDL cat 5 run is coming from. The 12z won't be out for a few more hours.

[Scorpion]

AT 950 mb. Reduces to about 160 mph at surface I think.

[senorpepr]

AT 950 mb. Reduces to about 160 mph at surface I think.

You can't make that reduction. The 153kt is at a surface pressure of 905mb. That wind is, essentially, below the surface so that conversion factor is tossed out the window.

[shaggy]

how about a vote for "WHO CARES" i want snow and cold now this season has been long enough and most deadly so lets all hope it dies and nothing comes from it!

[Scorpion]

AT 950 mb. Reduces to about 160 mph at surface I think.

You can't make that reduction. The 153kt is at a surface pressure of 905mb. That wind is, essentially, below the surface so that conversion factor is tossed out the window.

Ah, I forgot about that. Makes sense. I don't know why the GFDL uses a 950 mb level then since most hurricanes are below 950.

[senorpepr]

AT 950 mb. Reduces to about 160 mph at surface I think.

You can't make that reduction. The 153kt is at a surface pressure of 905mb. That wind is, essentially, below the surface so that conversion factor is tossed out the window.

Ah, I forgot about that. Makes sense. I don't know why the GFDL uses a 950 mb level then since most hurricanes are below 950.

It's a good "middle-ground" number. If you used 900mb, that would throw off weaker disturbances and would hurt the models performance during the development stage.

[wzrgirl1]

oh I think that this baby will have the potential to be minimally a cat. 4....possible a strong one at that.......the environment ahead is looking ripe

[WindRunner]

After seeing two consecutive GFDL runs peak it at 153kts, I wouldn't be surprised to see it, but it's way too early to say.

gfdl says 153kts?

The 0z indicated a cat 5, the 6z indicated only a cat 3. Not sure where this other GFDL cat 5 run is coming from. The 12z won't be out for a few more hours.

18z yesterday run, but it was "only" 144kts. New one (12z) is showing 151kts and 898mb.

[quandary]

Either nothing, a weak, moderate tropical storm (50mph) or a strong cat 3+.

That is, either this storm will shear out, become a TD or TS with max being in the 35-50mph range or, it manages to get past 65ish or so, it'll probably go all the way to a strong Cat 3 (winds 125mph+).

The way I see it follows Joe Bastardi's "rock up the hill analogy." Either it won't get the rock up the hill, and it'll fizzle, or if it doesn't fizzle, it might fizzle before consolidating and could manage into the mid TS range, or if it develops a CDO and a pre-eye, conditions will let it rapidly intensify and only stop when the first eye-wall replacement cycle begins, which could theoretically be as early as 115mph, but will likely hold off as we have seen recently until it gets near 945mb and winds are likely 130-135+.

[truballer#1]

its now td 24!