Will this system be a N Gulf or FL threat

[boca]

Will this system be a N Gulf threat or FL threat,or possibly move into Central America.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Will this system be a N Gulf threat or FL threat,or possibly move into Central America.

FL Threat looks very strong from the handle to keys..

[skysummit]

I'm going to say in between Appalachicola and Tampa.

[Lowpressure]

Appal to Cedar Key area would be my guess.

[no advance]

Michelles track. That was a close call for Miami. Have a nice day.

[hcane]

Belize

[Scorpion]

Panhandle hitter I think. Tampa to be threatened pretty big though. Would give rains and winds to all of the Peninsula.

[vbhoutex]

I am not willing to call it this far out, even though I said in the 98L thread, I figured a FL peninsula threat. First it does have to develop and 2nd if it meanders for several days the steering currents could be a lot different by the time something really affects it to steer it. Central America threat is becoming more of a possibility imo. The front/torugh that could affect it once it develops is just now starting to take shape in the SW and is not expected to move out to the East for several days yet. AS always timing will be everything with the interaction between the two.

[mike815]

I think west coast of Florida threat to maybe the panhandle.

[Wacahootaman]

Nicawawa

[wxmann_91]

Nicawawa

For it to hit Nicaragua ( that is the correct spelling BTW ), it would have to go due south, which IMHO is highly unlikely.

I'm learning a Cuban hit and then a threat to the FL west coast or panhandle, but as everyone has said it is too early to tell.

[Rainband]

No Canes allowed here.

[jkt21787]

No Canes allowed here.

"Wilma" may not listen to you

[Rainband]

Very hard for us to have a landfall in this area. I am not very concerned at this point.

[Rainband]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE OVER
THE STATE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH CENTER SETTLES
FROM OVER CENTRAL CANADA S/SE TO ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY REGION
THROUGH MONDAY. ALOFT...RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF AND EXTEND
THROUGH THE NATION`S CENTRAL STATES WITH A LOW OVER THE EXTREME NE
STATES AND EASTERN CANADA. DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR MONDAY BUT NO CHANCE FOR RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL UNDER A GENERALLY
LIGHT NE FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-SAT)...LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN OVERALL FORECAST
PATTERN FOR UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL FORECAST TO BE
ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST DURING MID-WEEK AS SOME RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT TUESDAY VEERING TO A MORE
EASTERLY DIRECTION LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE EASTERLY LATE IN THE WEEK WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MAIN EFFECT OF THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BE A FEW
MORE CLOUDS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT STILL LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...AFTERNOON RHS WILL
DROP TO AROUND 40% FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ON SUNDAY. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS AS LOWER DEWPOINTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS COULD BRING
RHS CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES...THOUGH SHOULD STILL NOT HAVE DURATIONS
EVEN IF VALUES DROPPED INTO THE MID 30% RANGE. MONDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD SEE SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL KEEP MIN RHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 67 87 67 87 / 00 00 00 00
FMY 67 87 66 88 / 00 00 00 00
GIF 64 87 65 87 / 00 00 00 00
SRQ 65 86 64 87 / 00 00 00 00
BKV 54 86 54 87 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

[jkt21787]

Very hard for us to have a landfall in this area. I am not very concerned at this point.

Well it is an area that hasn't seen a landfall in a good while, but that doesn't mean it will just avoid you. Keep an eye out just in case. Everyone's luck runs out eventually, New Orleans's did this year after all.

I hope it continues though for you

[Rainband]

Me too. Thanks

[floridahurricaneguy]

This one even if it doesnt hit or not will probably be our closest call this season. I am slightly concerned it will either just north of Tampa or just south.

Rainband:I am away this weekend. What are local mets saying there?

Matt

[tracyswfla]

This one even if it doesnt hit or not will probably be our closest call this season. I am slightly concerned it will either just north of Tampa or just south.

Rainband:I am away this weekend. What are local mets saying there?

Matt

I can tell you in Ft. Myers, at the 6pm news our local met said nothing to be concerned about it isn't coming near FL....

[StormFury]

And nearly all the forecasters in South Florida said Andrew would not be a threat to Florida either. Weather patterns can change with the blink of an eye. If a cold front is stronger than expected or digs into the GOM, Florida better watch out. This is the month of October (mid to late October at that!). The likelihood of a western or northern GOM landfall threat decreases as we get later into the season. And by the way, don't give me that bull about, "Oh, but this season has been so unpredictable, that I wouldn't be surprised if..." Ivan, Emily, Dennis, and Katrina have given most of the gulf states their fare share...the most spared area has been from Tampa to the Big Bend region.