If this is not a signal to the end of the season

[wxcrazytwo]

then I don't know what it is.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

It appears to be clearing the moisture away from FL.

[no advance]

Wish it would dry out here. Last night we got pummelled with heavy rain.

[sponger]

That will sound silly in about a week!

[NastyCat4]

Really don't think there's much more left--the alphabet soup kids will be disappointed, but maybe one more storm---probably will get Wilma. After that, conditions are getting hostile for tropical development, and the season has been full steam for 5 months. Heat energy is getting dissipated, and there will be a wind down.

[wxcrazytwo]

Really don't think there's much more left--the alphabet soup kids will be disappointed, but maybe one more storm---probably will get Wilma. After that, conditions are getting hostile for tropical development, and the season has been full steam for 5 months. Heat energy is getting dissipated, and there will be a wind down.

I agree it is getting a little cooler here in Tampa..

[vbhoutex]

Really don't think there's much more left--the alphabet soup kids will be disappointed, but maybe one more storm---probably will get Wilma. After that, conditions are getting hostile for tropical development, and the season has been full steam for 5 months. Heat energy is getting dissipated, and there will be a wind down.

Have we forgotten the "untouched" Carribean? We are definitely in the part of the season when things begin to wind down for most areas, but I would not be surprised if we get a couple more out of this area.

[sponger]

Just what I was thinking. South of Florida is still plenty warm. An average season would expect 2.4 storms Oct to Novemeber on Avg. So I think with an active season, 2 more systems (named not hurricanes) is likely. 1933 will fall!

[Scorpion]

It is still summer out here in South Florida. Highs in the upper 80's low 90's and don't look to be abating soon. Also the lows are still in the mid to upper 70's.

[senorpepr]

Really don't think there's much more left--the alphabet soup kids will be disappointed, but maybe one more storm---probably will get Wilma. After that, conditions are getting hostile for tropical development, and the season has been full steam for 5 months. Heat energy is getting dissipated, and there will be a wind down.

Have we forgotten the "untouched" Carribean? We are definitely in the part of the season when things begin to wind down for most areas, but I would not be surprised if we get a couple more out of this area.

Right... keep in mind that the Carribean has not see activity since Dennis and Emily.

Here are some hurricanes (not including tropical storms/depressions) that have formed in October or November:
Roxanne 1995
Lili 1996
Marco 1996
Mitch 1998
Irene 1999
Jose 1999
Lenny 1999
Keith 2000
Iris 2001
Michelle 2001
Lili 2002

Of course, this list excludes weaker storms in the Carribean and storms of any intensity elsewhere in the basin.

[terstorm1012]

I'd like to see a fish called Wilma (sorry, been waiting all day to make that joke....and I know the movie is A fish Called Wanda. Wilma was closest.)

[gilbert88]

Really don't think there's much more left--the alphabet soup kids will be disappointed, but maybe one more storm---probably will get Wilma. After that, conditions are getting hostile for tropical development, and the season has been full steam for 5 months. Heat energy is getting dissipated, and there will be a wind down.

I remember you said the same thing back in early September.

[NastyCat4]

I remember you said the same thing back in early September.

So, I'm bound to be right eventually? Huh?

[Andrew92]

I remember you said the same thing back in early September.

So, I'm bound to be right eventually? Huh?

I think his point is that if you keep saying the same thing and are consistently wrong, people are going to take you with a grain of salt. Just something to think about, and I truly mean no offense when I say that.

My opinion, I think we will have one more storm, and MAYBE two. But no more.

-Andrew92

[NastyCat4]

If one takes my opinion with a grain of salt, that is their problem. Let's face facts, we're not getting storms for the rest of the year. It has to stop eventually--the predictions for 25 storms are ludicrous. I didn't think we'd have the activity we did in September, and still think that it will back off very soon--it already has to a degree.

[nequad]

What would lead any logical person to think this season is just going to go *poof* and disappear like a fart in the wind?

This season has been freakishly active for a reason. Don't think for a minute this season is over. Heck, there may very well be a TC in the Caribbean in the coming days.

I don't understand the mindset of people who are so quick to say the season is over. Someone explain this to me, please.

[Anonymous]

I expect 3 more storms, 1-2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (LIKELY A CARIBBEAN, MAYBE FLORIDA IMPACT)

[NastyCat4]

Someone explain the mindset to me that the season will go on at the same pace forever--that just isn't good science. SSTS are cooling down gradually, shear is prevalent, and upper level winds are far from favorable. Yes, we many have one, or possibly two more storms, but it simply isn't going on forever--the amount of heat energy is not infinite, and that fuels storms as much as does anything else.

[Andrew92]

What would lead any logical person to think this season is just going to go *poof* and disappear like a fart in the wind?

This season has been freakishly active for a reason. Don't think for a minute this season is over. Heck, there may very well be a TC in the Caribbean in the coming days.

I don't understand the mindset of people who are so quick to say the season is over. Someone explain this to me, please.

Reminds me of 2001. In 2001 at this time, we were tracking Hurricane Karen, which skirted the East Coast, before striking Nova Scotia as a tropical storm. We had 11 storms at this time that year. The last named storm of the year was Olga.

Yeah, that's right, Olga, four names further than Karen. I am NOT saying the rest of this season is going to have four named storms. Quite the contrary, my above post says no more than two. But stranger things are known to happen. One of those storms remaining in 2001 was Michelle, one of Cuba's worst hurricanes ever. Also one of the strongest late-season storms in history.

And believe me, and I am NOT -removed-. If I was -removed-, I would automatically say there will be no more tropical storms this year. But I don't wishcast.

-Andrew92

[nequad]

Someone explain the mindset to me that the season will go on at the same pace forever--that just isn't good science. SSTS are cooling down gradually, shear is prevalent, and upper level winds are far from favorable. Yes, we many have one, or possibly two more storms, but it simply isn't going on forever--the amount of heat energy is not infinite, and that fuels storms as much as does anything else.

No one is saying it's going on forever. But people are coming on here making blanket statements that the season is over. We have every reason to assume at least one more TC this month, perhaps 2. And so far we have had at least 1 TC every month this season. That to me says expect one in November too.

We'll see.

[Andrew92]

One more addition on my part:

Out on a whim, I checked the 1933 data. By this time that year, there had been 18 storms. The 19th did not form until the 25th of October, and two more came after that one.

http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1933

Again, not saying it's going to happen. No, I remain on my word I said just a little while ago that no more than two more will form the rest of this year. But the possibility remains there for more storms that we're predicting.

-Andrew92