New Possible System forming in Atlantic

Weatherfreak14 · #21 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 9:43 pm

Oh this could be Wilima or alpha coming. I wonder what has a better chance forming. 97L invest or this :?:

artist · #22 Postby **artist** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 10:53 pm

according to the navy site 97l no longer exists.

krysof · #23 Postby **krysof** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:11 am

krysof wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:If you look on the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) there appears to be a new Tropical Depression forming. This is what I said the other day...this type of ITCZ I fear the most:::

it looks like the wave is organizing, shear is low, though a bit further north it gets unfavorable

looks like its developing more outflow, looking really good this morning

#24 Postby **Trader Ron** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:23 am

I give it about a 3% chance of making it across the pond.

krysof · #25 Postby **krysof** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:26 am

Trader Ron wrote:I give it about a 3% chance of making it across the pond.

it will never make it across, but it could develop here, I'm suprised this thing has no invest though, it's persistent

no advance · #26 Postby **no advance** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 8:47 am

Looks like at 60 w 30 n something is trying to wind up. Have a nice day.

#27 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 10:29 am

702
ABNT20 KNHC 131521
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

There you go Mike.

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 12:58 pm

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE REPOSITIONED ALONG 27W/28W S OF 14N MOVING
W 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS GOTTEN SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER-DEFINED
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE
N AND E SIDE. THERE IS EVEN SOME EVIDENCE OF A BROAD LOW
FORMING NEAR 10N. SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SEEMS POSSIBLE
WITH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NOT ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE... THOUGH IT IS
GETTING LATE TO HAVE SOMETHING FORM IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN
24W-31W.

Interesting 2 PM Discussion about this wave.

#29 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:04 pm

The way this season has gone it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a late cape verde storm. Climatology went out the window this year why should it stop now.

krysof · #30 Postby **krysof** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:12 pm

if it makes it to 30w the shear is at its lightest there

txwatcher91 · #31 Postby **txwatcher91** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:31 pm

This wave has planty of moisture to worh with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

NastyCat4 · #32 Postby **NastyCat4** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:34 pm

The way this season has gone it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a late cape verde storm. Climatology went out the window this year why should it stop now.

People keep saying that "climatology went out the window." That is not accurate--it has been a very active hurricane season, much as 1995. In addition, the landfalls were not in areas that landfalling storms have avoided--basically they were frequently hit areas. The only thing unusual was the number and intensity of storms--if one looks back in history, several years stand out as very active.

MiamiensisWx · #33 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:47 pm

The system is starting to look better somewhat on visible imagery as well...

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #34 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:49 pm

NastyCat4 wrote:
The way this season has gone it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a late cape verde storm. Climatology went out the window this year why should it stop now.

People keep saying that "climatology went out the window." That is not accurate--it has been a very active hurricane season, much as 1995. In addition, the landfalls were not in areas that landfalling storms have avoided--basically they were frequently hit areas. The only thing unusual was the number and intensity of storms--if one looks back in history, several years stand out as very active.

Actually... that would be a fairly accurate statement: this season hasn't followed climatology very well. Right, the landfalling areas, for the most part, weren't unusual, but the season as a whole has not followed climatology.

Saying that "this season isn't following climatology" would be an inaccurate statement is like saying a Lance Armstrong is an average cyclist.

krysof · #35 Postby **krysof** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:51 pm

also, it was very unusual how active July was, we had two big monsters that month Dennis and Emily

#36 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:53 pm

NastyCat4 wrote:
The way this season has gone it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a late cape verde storm. Climatology went out the window this year why should it stop now.

People keep saying that "climatology went out the window." That is not accurate--it has been a very active hurricane season, much as 1995. In addition, the landfalls were not in areas that landfalling storms have avoided--basically they were frequently hit areas. The only thing unusual was the number and intensity of storms--if one looks back in history, several years stand out as very active.

You can take that one up with the NHC; they said it first way back in July.

krysof · #37 Postby **krysof** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 1:59 pm

I just realized people said that there was no cape verde hurricane, but wasn't Irene a cape verde hurricane. I think most storms were actually from the cape verdes but didn't develop until they got closer in. We did have cape verde hurricanes people. Sure we didn't have a hurricane right by the cape verde islands but many storms originated from the Cape Verde region.

quandary · #38 Postby **quandary** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:26 pm

NastyCat4 wrote:
The way this season has gone it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a late cape verde storm. Climatology went out the window this year why should it stop now.

People keep saying that "climatology went out the window." That is not accurate--it has been a very active hurricane season, much as 1995. In addition, the landfalls were not in areas that landfalling storms have avoided--basically they were frequently hit areas. The only thing unusual was the number and intensity of storms--if one looks back in history, several years stand out as very active.

No, this year has been completely anti-climatology. 5 July storms the two strongest July storms of all time back to back. The fact that nearly every storm have been multiple days ahead of schedule. A 902mb Cat 5 in the Gulf of Mexico. A second "full-fledged" Cat 5 (unlike the questionable or low end ones in 1960/1961)... and also in the gulf.

No Cape Verde storms. Vince. Way too many gulf storms. 4 intense gulf hurricanes (beating the record by 2). Definitely went out the window here.

quandary · #39 Postby **quandary** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 2:32 pm

krysof wrote:I just realized people said that there was no cape verde hurricane, but wasn't Irene a cape verde hurricane. I think most storms were actually from the cape verdes but didn't develop until they got closer in. We did have cape verde hurricanes people. Sure we didn't have a hurricane right by the cape verde islands but many storms originated from the Cape Verde region.

Irene wasn't a Cape Verde storm, it was a storm from a wave, but it wasn't a real long tracker. Almost year has a few long trackers to watch and a year as active as this ought to have a few... many cape verde storms end up as Cat 4... examples of the classics are:

2004: Karl, Ivan, Frances
2003: Isabel, Fabian
2002 was an El Nino year
2001 Felix
2000 Alberto, Isaac, Joyce
1999 Cindy, Floyd, Gert

Etc. All these storms were big Cat 4 or Cat 3s while 2005 just hasn't had something like that. All formed into tropical storms near the Cape.

#40 Postby **Buck** » Thu Oct 13, 2005 3:52 pm

This years longest lasting storms:

Irene - 14 days
Ophelia - 12 days
Emily - 10 days
Maria - 9 days
Franklin - 8 days
Katrina - 7 days
Phillipe - 7 days
Rita - 7 days

In comparison...

Frances - 16 days
Ivan - 16 days
Karl - 8 days

Isabel - 13 days
Fabian - 12 days

Felix - 9 days

Alberto - 18 days
Isaac - 11 days
Joyce - 8 days

Cindy - 12 days
Floyd - 12 days
Gert - 12 days

New Possible System forming in Atlantic

Re: New Possible System forming in Atlantic

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