hurricane next week for fla?

[hurricanedude]

and i say bad things about accuwx and get banned for 3 days????
Go figure!

[vbhoutex]

Stop the JB flames and get back to the discussion of the original question. Fair warning!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

when is that trough/cold front supposed to dig into the GOM
and when is the trough supposed to cross FL?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Stop the JB flames and get back to the discussion of the original question. Fair warning!

I don't know about JB but that friggin Aviator Freaks me out...

[MBismyPlayground]

Ya know, I don't pay attention to many forecasts other then the ones of people I trust here. I do not have a link to nor read the JB site. But, this being said, I have paid attention to what you all write. Not ABOUT him, but, his forecasts. I am not really up on the validation of any forecast ect... either.
But seems to me, from a purely novice perspective, that even though some of the forecasts do not pan out, when he has called for some type of tropical activity, stronger then what is "normal", it seems to occur. It may not always go in the exact area or direction he has forecast, but......it is there, right in our face. I am sure one of you could word this more in meteorological terminology but, I think most of you get my point.(I think haha)

[skysummit]

In other words, JB almost *always* predicts a major catastrophe from any tropical system. The fact that he's predicting another hurricane in FL means - that he's alive and breathing and that Accuwx hasn't fired him.

Rita was supposed to be the worst hurricane ever to hit Texas.

It hit Louisiana.

That was my favorite of all time.

[curtadams]

Of course it's always a *possibility* that you could get a hurricane developing from any bad weather in the tropics - but it might be a very unlikely one. The NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ doesn't make any mention of a hurricane threat to FL. The Accuweather Atlantic hurricane page http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... a&site=ATL which is NOT sensationalistic and generally quite good about tropical development, doesn't mention a FL hurricane as a possibility either.

I have no idea why the Accuweather page is so different from JB's televised/columnized forecasts. Is it written by somebody else? Does JB take his weenie hat off for it? No idea. But in any case, between the NHC tropical outlook and the Accuweather Atlantic hurricane page, you won't get blindsided by many tropical systems, and neither thinks there's meaningful risk for a hurricane to FL in the short term.

[hurricanedude]

I think what he is getting to is....the players for development will be coming together in about a week to support tropical development, I do not think he is forecasting a FL cane...just that the pattern trends down the road are more favorable.

[truballer#1]

theres couple models showing a tropical storm or cane but not at florida

[ronjon]

Actually JB's looking at climatology, teleconnections, and he relies heavily on the ECMWF (Euro) model. The threat to FL (west coast) is particularly high for anything that forms in the western carribean this time of year. It's interesting that both the 12Z NOGAPS and UKMET do form a closed circulation in this area in 5-6 days.

[ameriwx2003]

Actually JB's looking at climatology, teleconnections, and he relies heavily on the ECMWF (Euro) model. The threat to FL (west coast) is particularly high for anything that forms in the western carribean this time of year. It's interesting that both the 12Z NOGAPS and UKMET do form a closed circulation in this area in 5-6 days.

Yes and the 12Z EURO is also forming a closed circulation in the western caribbean,, like you said climatology would say a threat to Florida is very possible if a storm forms like some models are hinting in the western caribbean,time will tell:):)

[Steve H.]

Yep EC is showing a closed circulation at 168, and some more of the ensembles are showing development. Need to see if more jump on board. They are also showing a couple of systems, the other being development in the Atlantic.

[Weatherfreak14]

So is this possible for development? It looks way better organized than this morning.

[THead]

All I know is that I'm beyond ready for our first cold front of the season! Usually get one by the time Halloween rolls around. Need some relief from this heat!

[skysummit]

All I know is that I'm beyond ready for our first cold front of the season! Usually get one by the time Halloween rolls around. Need some relief from this heat!

THead...I feel for you. I couldn't wait for our first front, and it came through last weekend. This past week has been beautiful. The temps have gotten up to the lower 80's this week, but the humidity is still low. I believe we have another front coming down this weekend to re-enforce the "pleasure". Hopefully one will make it down to you soon.

[THead]

All I know is that I'm beyond ready for our first cold front of the season! Usually get one by the time Halloween rolls around. Need some relief from this heat!

THead...I feel for you. I couldn't wait for our first front, and it came through last weekend. This past week has been beautiful. The temps have gotten up to the lower 80's this week, but the humidity is still low. I believe we have another front coming down this weekend to re-enforce the "pleasure". Hopefully one will make it down to you soon.

Yeah man, I've been down here for 20 years, but this ole Wisconsin boy's blood has never adjusted to the heat!

I'm assuming JB was referring to a west coast of florida cane, being picked up by some front coming through possibly next week, and driving it to the NE? I mean if any of that pans out, that is typically how Fla gets hit this time of year, right?

[Derecho]

when he has called for some type of tropical activity, stronger then what is "normal", it seems to occur. It may not always go in the exact area or direction he has forecast, but......it is there, right in our face. I am sure one of you could word this more in meteorological terminology but, I think most of you get my point.(I think haha)

It's because it's always forecast; thus it's impossible for anything to form without him having "called" it; at any given time he'll have a standing forecast for "tropical trouble" within the last week for any climatologically favorable area for tropical Atlantic at that date.

However this carries a price...a huge number of "false positives."

Last year, you'll note that no TDs or named storms formed in the Atlantic in June and July. However, During that time period JB forecast tropical development 30 times (Including calling for INVEST 90L in the GOM to hit Texas as a 115 kt hurricane; it never made TD.)

The problem is, to recognize this, one has to subscribe to AccuWx, and carefully log all predictions in an objective manner; however, currently the only people paying the high prices for the subscription are already JB Bastardibots and unlikely to do any such assessments.

[jlauderdal]

All I know is that I'm beyond ready for our first cold front of the season! Usually get one by the time Halloween rolls around. Need some relief from this heat!

THead...I feel for you. I couldn't wait for our first front, and it came through last weekend. This past week has been beautiful. The temps have gotten up to the lower 80's this week, but the humidity is still low. I believe we have another front coming down this weekend to re-enforce the "pleasure". Hopefully one will make it down to you soon.

Yeah man, I've been down here for 20 years, but this ole Wisconsin boy's blood has never adjusted to the heat!

I'm assuming JB was referring to a west coast of florida cane, being picked up by some front coming through possibly next week, and driving it to the NE? I mean if any of that pans out, that is typically how Fla gets hit this time of year, right?

the only thing we are getting hit by is some lower dew points this weekend it will be a welcome relief.

[markymark8]

Oh yeah a cat 4 is coming. Noooooooo this season is basically OVER!!! I rareley check the Tropical Satellite Imagery out anymore. Why??? Because I have been tracking hurricanes for 22 years and I am smart enough to know when conditions are unfavorable for development. October and November are the least active months for Hurricanes on record and the unfavorable atmosphere pattern in the Atlantic does not seem to be going anywhere for a while. Goodbye 2005 and be glad everyone!!! It has been a record breaking deadley year.

[Deb321]

Oh yeah a cat 4 is coming. Noooooooo this season is basically OVER!!! I rareley check the Tropical Satellite Imagery out anymore. Why??? Because I have been tracking hurricanes for 22 years and I am smart enough to know when conditions are unfavorable for development. October and November are the least active months for Hurricanes on record and the unfavorable atmosphere pattern in the Atlantic does not seem to be going anywhere for a while. Goodbye 2005 and be glad everyone!!! It has been a record breaking deadley year.

I for one hope you are right and if we do have anymore storms I hope they are all out to sea. I for one have seen enough destruction this year. I have been lucky so far this year and would like to get on with my life and not have to constantly be in fear of being hit by a major hurricane.