New Possible System forming in Atlantic

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:13 am

If you look on the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) there appears to be a new Tropical Depression forming. This is what I said the other day...this type of ITCZ I fear the most:::

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:21 am

It looks like one. But knowing this year it will get sheared apart. But any way come on Wilma come on!!!

#3 Postby **TheEuropean** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:28 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:It looks like one. But knowing this year it will get sheared apart. But any way come on Wilma come on!!!

But if it stays far south there is not so much shear for "Wilma in spe" ;-)

superfly · #4 Postby **superfly** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:35 am

West winds are present but nothing organized.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?519,230

HurricaneJoe22 · #5 Postby **HurricaneJoe22** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:43 am

Wow. We could see Wilma and Alpha named within the next day or two if this east Atlantic system turns into a storm and the Caribbean convection forms into a storm

Thunder44 · #6 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:08 am

Steve Lyons was saying last night this could become a TD. But there was no mention of it in the TWO. But Matt's right these systems in the Atlantic have a had harder time sustaining themselves, no matter how impressive they've looked.

#7 Postby **Cookiely** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:10 am

Isn't this the area that is embedded in the Saharan dust? It looks good but does it have any chance because of the dust even if it steers clear of the shear? Any thoughts on the potential? I think its a long shot.

knotimpaired · #8 Postby **knotimpaired** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:32 am

Speaking just for our island and our sister island, Culebra, we wish to extend an invitation to these storms to head a tad bit north.

Say, fish country.

WindRunner · #9 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:32 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Steve Lyons was saying last night this could become a TD. But there was no mention of it in the TWO. But Matt's right these systems in the Atlantic have a had harder time sustaining themselves, no matter how impressive they've looked.

Well, not being mentioned in the TWO doesn't seem to mean a whole lot recently (Vince was mentioned in the TWO until he had an eye!)

#10 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:33 pm

We've come this far, I want two more. 2005 shall be the season for
the "standard", forget 1933.

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:33 pm

We've come this far, I want two more. 2005 shall be the season for
the "standard", forget 1933.

#12 Postby **Rieyeuxs** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:39 pm

The NHC stated in their discussion that the Atlantic was favorable, but very late in the season. From what I could tell, they didn't indicate much in the way of immediate development.

krysof · #13 Postby **krysof** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:40 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:If you look on the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) there appears to be a new Tropical Depression forming. This is what I said the other day...this type of ITCZ I fear the most:::

it looks like the wave is organizing, shear is low, though a bit further north it gets unfavorable

MiamiensisWx · #14 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:31 pm

You have to be careful about getting too excited, since endless numbers of waves that have been so-called "organizing" or "strengthening" or "looking very good" have poofed. Shear has been numerous at times, so we will have to see if it truly persists or organizes before getting a little, possibly, TOO excited. Still, it needs watching, potentially.

HURRICANELONNY · #15 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 5:53 pm

According to some of the models something will form from the broad low pressures in the carribean and head towards the Northeast. Just where they don't need the rain:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Swimdude · #16 Postby **Swimdude** » Tue Oct 11, 2005 6:50 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:You have to be careful about getting too excited, since endless numbers of waves that have been so-called "organizing" or "strengthening" or "looking very good" have poofed. Shear has been numerous at times, so we will have to see if it truly persists or organizes before getting a little, possibly, TOO excited. Still, it needs watching, potentially.

Then again, look at the huge number that HAVE survived this year.

fasterdisaster · #17 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 7:59 pm

Is this an invest? Because it should be, looks pretty good, and if it stays south enough, it juuuuust might survive.

krysof · #18 Postby **krysof** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:01 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Is this an invest? Because it should be, looks pretty good, and if it stays south enough, it juuuuust might survive.

I doubt it will survive but it is persistent, alive for a couple of days now

fasterdisaster · #19 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:16 pm

krysof wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:Is this an invest? Because it should be, looks pretty good, and if it stays south enough, it juuuuust might survive.

I doubt it will survive but it is persistent, alive for a couple of days now

Yeah, a fairly low chance of survival, but it should still be an invest.

#20 Postby **canetracker** » Wed Oct 12, 2005 8:34 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:According to some of the models something will form from the broad low pressures in the carribean and head towards the Northeast. Just where they don't need the rain:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The models do seem to have a lot of faith in this wave developing. I guess time will tell.

New Possible System forming in Atlantic

New Possible System forming in Atlantic

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