Northern GOM landfalls

[wxmann_91]

that picture of Katrina you have under your name i just can't believe the GOM was large enough to support a hurricane of that size

The GOM has supported bigger. Carla 1961 I think was 175 miles across and was the second largest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic. Betsy 1965 was also a giant.

[timNms]

There was extensive wind damage in Mississippi, comparable to what Arcadia went through in Charley. Borderline 2/3 sustained. That is what Arcadia received in Charley, and it was nearly leveled. Thats what those winds do to all areas other than a fortress

As for the parts of the USA to be hit by a 5. There, in my opinion based upon analysis have been 3.

1. The Lake Okeechobee cane when it hit PR
2. 1935 FL Keys
3. Andrew

very hard to get one farther north due to the low heat content near the coast. However, had Katrina had half of the dynamical support that Rita had, it easily would have came in as a 5 since its MPI was about 800mb according to some of our simulations, while Rita was only about 10mb from its MPI

It appears, folks, that this model has a florida bias

[Derek Ortt]

nope,

just heat content bias

Katrina should have hit as a 5, based upon its MPI

[john potter]

so, Derek, based on Katrina's potential intensity, do you rank it as one of the most remarkable hurricanes, you've examined?

[Derek Ortt]

I rank it as an underachiever, if our MPI is correct. Very surprised that it peaked where it did

[alicia-w]

Camielle, like Katrina, was a major hurricane at landfall. Maybe not a 5, but still a major hurricane

This information indicates Camille was a 5 at landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml

and here is a place that shows what Category Storm hit where:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/paststate.shtml

[m_ru]

Are you saying that Frederic made landfall in Ocean Springs, MS? Actually, Frederic made landfall between the MS/AL state line and Mobile Bay. Ocean Springs was outside the western eyewall - about 30 miles west of landfall. Ocean Springs was probably outside the sustained 75 mph wind field. My mother was in Pascagoula for Frederic. She just passed through the western part of the eye. I was on the phone with her when the wind calmed down briefly.

Frederic hit the MS/AL state line as a STRONG hurricane. Whether it was a strong cat. 3 or weak cat. 4 doesn't really matter. Ocean Springs got winds way over 75mph...you can trust me on that. Everyone who went through it remembers what that insane NNE wind did to Ingall's shipyard and the rest of Pascagoula, Moss Point, Gautier and Ocean Springs.

Not trying to take anything away from Alabama...I know they got it way way worse.

[jes]

And Mobile hasn't had a strong storm hit since Frederic ----- they hit all around us ---- they head straight for us and then turn at the very last minute.

[Derek Ortt]

camielle has not been reanalysed yet. As is the case with all canes from that time, they are subject to a revision of 2-3 categories

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think Katrina fall apart because of dry air/southwestly shear. All hurricane over the northern Gulf do that. Also how strong could Katrina could of got Derek?

[Derek Ortt]

as I've said a few times, Katrina's MPI was about 800mb. Meaning Katrina did not have the dynamical support necessary to intensify as uch as it should have and I was very surprised not to see it intensify beyond 902mb. I remember in the updates that morning, Cang and myself were continuing to forecast intensification even after it hit 150KT because of that very fact

[wxmann_91]

as I've said a few times, Katrina's MPI was about 800mb. Meaning Katrina did not have the dynamical support necessary to intensify as uch as it should have and I was very surprised not to see it intensify beyond 902mb. I remember in the updates that morning, Cang and myself were continuing to forecast intensification even after it hit 150KT because of that very fact

I believe that the EWRC the day before she was a Cat 5 took too long, after that she did strengthen rapidly, but by Sunday afternoon shear was beginning to take its toll as I noticed the western edge flattening out and impedement of the outflow to the west. Had the shear not impeded it, or had the EWRC occurred earlier and/or taken shorter time, Katrina could've easily gone sub-900.

Another thing that could've prevented Katrina from getting any stronger was the large eye, which prevented a rate of intensification even faster than what occurred.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Just curious, and it's probably been answered before, but does Mobile have a floodwall in place? I'm assuming not, since Katrina washed through downtown like the bay was turned sideways, but it seems to me that Mobile is really at risk for that proverbial big one. New Orleans had its' Cat3 levees, and Galveston has its' 15-foot seawall, but Mobile just has luck. Tampa too. I mean, I'm not being too naive in assuming after Katrina that these other cities will get funding for levees, am I?

[Derek Ortt]

the large eye didnt stop the pressure form falling, just the winds from rising

[fasterdisaster]

Is it just me, or does every single hurricane be called weaker after it hits on this board. Im not trying to offend anybody at all, but really, the winds are never as high in reports as they are in the advisories.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Katrina was likely a 125 mph at first landfall. In close to 120 mph at second landfall. It got the stuffing beat out of it as it was moving.

[f5]

Here is wxmann_91's avatar picture in a more full size...

Is this Wilma's future?

[PTPatrick]

I would have to disagree with Derek on the point of Andrew and The Labor day storm to be the only cat 5's to hit the US mainland. Obviously there is some precedence for storms weakening as they hit they move toward the northern gulf. Water temps are not to blame, although they are shallower right there on the shelf,they are plenty warm. The typical reason they weaken seems to be that troughs are picking them up adn influece by the westerlies. At land fall, Katrina, Ivan, Dennis, etc and the other "weakening storms" were moving almost due north or northwest. Camille maintained a NNW heading almost to Jackson, which would imply the storm would not have had quite the hostile environment at the coast that other storms have. Also, Camille was very small, and peaked in intensity very close to the coast. I realize there was no recon in the hours before the storm when it was between the Mouth of the MS and the MS coast, BUT, we have some limited wind data from Mississippi, including Keesler, as well as damage reports that support cat 5 strength. Am I saying it was the monster 190-200 mph storm that records have it at? NO? But the gusts were there are least into biloxi, which given the size of camille, wasnt even in the core of eye wall. The recon was there 10 hours away from the coast to support that and I highly doubt that it weakened to a cat 4 that quickly. I would say from picture I have seen(i know you dont believe pictures), the area between the Pass and around Bay st. louis and long beach WAS leveled, by surge, but also by wind. Also, it was a tiny storm like Charley, and the pressue at landfall was still 901...which is WAY lower than charley...or andrew. And even if it was weakening at that point, odds are that for a storm that small, even in a weakening phase, 901 would support cat 5 winds. Hell, low 900s supported cat 5 EASILY in Katrina AND Rita which was way bigger than Camille. After Katrina there were buildings left in Pass Christian, bay st. louise and waveland, albiet flooded...after camille, it was good luck finding your street, let alone your house if you lived in these communities...and inland areas such as poplarville that went through the eye of Camille, looked like homestead. So even if Camille was a weak 160 mph, that is cat 5. Surge from Katrina was only bigger, as you have said because of size, not because of strength. I suspect when Re-analyses is over, camille will be retained as cat 5, and probably in the 165-175 range. I think Camille was the exception to the rule for the norhtern gulf and that the right conditions just came togetherSo believe what you will about Camille, Derek, but you dont have to tell us...

[joe_koehle]

wow, that must be a point worth reiterating! over and over and over

[f5]

we get the point