Big Rain Event is over for Puerto Rico,USVI,BVI

[weatherwoman]

do you think anything will develp here?

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

FOR ALL MUNICIPALITIES IN PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

AT 1200 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO HAS ONLY
EXPERIENCED AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...THE
FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

ALTHOUGH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 8 PM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST OVER THIS AREA. THE RAIN SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE...BUT THE GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED AND THEREFORE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FURTHER FLOODING STILL EXISTS UNTIL THE RAIN ENDS
LATER TODAY.



Great news.I hope that this break from the rain is very long to then allow the rivers and creeks to start to go down.By the way here in San Juan some breaks in the clouds has allowed the sun to make brief appearences although on a faint way.

[caribepr]

That IS great news! No rain here for awhile, no sun but the sky is lighter than it has been all day, hooray!
I've started feeling like I actually WILL be able to fly out tomorrow. Yippie!

[cycloneye]

FFASJU

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST WED OCT 12 2005

PRZ001>004-012-013-VIZ001-002-122000-
/X.CAN.TJSJ.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-051013T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-CULEBRA-
VIEQUES-ST. THOMAS ST. JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...BAYAMON...
CAROLINA...CATANO...GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...
TRUJILLO ALTO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...LOIZA...
LUQUILLO...NAGUABO...RIO GRANDE...ARROYO...GUAYAMA...MAUNABO...
PATILLAS...SALINAS...YABUCOA...AGUAS BUENAS...CAGUAS...CAYEY...
CIDRA...COMERIO...GURABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...SAN LORENZO...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST THOMAS ST JOHN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...
ST CROIX
251 PM AST WED OCT 12 2005

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO...NORTHERN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
GROUND ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS VERY SATURATED AND THEREFORE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY RUNOFF AND PRODUCE FLOODING.


Whooo!! Flash Flood watch cancelled.

[caribepr]

And we finally saw the sun here too! Is it too much to hope it is really over with?

[cycloneye]

And we finally saw the sun here too! Is it too much to hope it is really over with?

No it's not over completly but it is safe to say at this point that the worst of the rain event has made it's exit from the area and we turned the corner.However showers can be expected in the next couple of days and as the grounds are oversaturated flooding still can occur.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

What's the word out of Haiti? Any time I see a situation like this even remotely close to that island I get worried.

[cycloneye]

What's the word out of Haiti? Any time I see a situation like this even remotely close to that island I get worried.

I haved not heard anything from that country.Let's remember that the communications comming out from that country is little but hopefully nothing bad happens.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 122105
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN ATLC LIFTING NNE WITH TROFFING EXTENDING SW
TO E CUBA AND THEN INTO NW CARIB AND YUCATAN. THIS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A SSW TO SW STREAM OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM CENTRAL CARIB ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND INTO ATLC. LOW LEVEL TROFFING CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY BELOW
THE UPPER FEATURES WITH A S TO SSW FLOW OF GOOD MOISTURE STILL
MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE TODAY
HAS REMAINED TO THE WEST AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT RANGE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS JUST TO
OUR WEST ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STRAIGHT LINE
WIND FLOW IS YIELDING LESS CONVERGENCE...AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TONIGHT
THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS. DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE NUDGED SE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY FOR INCREASED AREAL COVERAGE AND
RAINFALL INTENSITY...WITH INTERACTION OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO THE E CARIB FROM THE E BRINGING MORE CONVERGENCE OF DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE SUNDAY. THE GIST OF ALL THIS IS THAT IMPROVING
WEATHER APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WIDESPREAD
CONSISTENT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING SHIFTED N AND NE...AND THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA STILL IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL EFFECTS TO
DOMINATE...AND ALSO WITH MORE SCATTERED TSTORMS ADVECTING FROM THE
CARIB NWD INTO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG S TO SSW WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS ACCELERATING THROUGH
THE LOCAL PASSAGES...AND IS REFLECTED IN LAST GUIDANCE WITH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 22 KNOTS ACROSS THE N MONA PASSAGE...AND A BIT LESS N OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE N MONA PASSAGE.
ATYPICAL SSW FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHEST WIND WAVES ACROSS THE S AND SW
COASTS AND WATERS FOR NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE. A CLASSIC WINTER STORM HAS DEVELOPED OFF OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE E AND MAKE A CYCLONIC
LOOP...MAINTAINING A TIGHT GRADIENT POINTING S AND SW TOWARD THE
LOCAL REGION. WWIII RESPONDS WITH A LARGE UNUSUALLY LONG PERIOD
SWELL ENTERING THE REGIONAL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PEAKING ON
SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO SEE HOW THIS EVOLVES...BUT COULD END UP
BEING OUR MAREJADAS DE LOS MUERTOS...AND WITH THIS EXTREMELY LONG
PERIOD WILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION...AND VERY LARGE
WAVES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE LAST OF THE HEAVY RAIN MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...NO FLASH FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT. SEVERAL RIVERS REMAIN OUT OF THEIR BANKS...AND ARE UNDER A
FLOOD WARNING. 4 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS ESTIMATED FROM NWS DOPPLER
RADAR STARTING SUNDAY SHOW 20-24 INCHES IN INTERIOR PENUELAS...15-20
ACROSS INTERIOR PONCE. THESE MUST STILL BE COMPARED WITH ACTUAL RAIN
GAGE READINGS...BUT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE.


I was somewhat optimist this afternoon but after reading this discussion we can expect some more bad weather that may be reinforced by another upper low moving from the east.

[cycloneye]

Report about the first death just came out as in Coamo a man drowned as he was swimming in a river.Well sadly that man did that with all the warnings out so he just went to his fate.

[caribepr]

I was optimistic too. Just got home from saying "See you in two weeks" to friends, laughing about being able to see the moon and a couple of stars and now reading this Oh well, tomorrow will bring what it brings, I just really hope I can get as far as SJU, then I don't care ( know that sounds selfish, and it IS selfish, but - right now, I'm on a mission to see my son).

[cycloneye]

I was optimistic too. Just got home from saying "See you in two weeks" to friends, laughing about being able to see the moon and a couple of stars and now reading this Oh well, tomorrow will bring what it brings, I just really hope I can get as far as SJU, then I don't care ( know that sounds selfish, and it IS selfish, but - right now, I'm on a mission to see my son).

Have a great trip and enjoy but more important a safe one.

[caribepr]

Thanks Luis! It will be good and safe (if I have anything to do with that!)...looking forward to eating my way through all the stuff we can't get here, cooking with my son, doing some work and knowing how good it will be to get back home at the end of it!

adding - at the bar tonight, the Weather Channel on (this is true at any bar on any island this time of year) I watched and saw...I'll be flying into the same weather I'm leaving!!! Except instead of 80 it will be 50/60.....ACK!!!!!!! Good thing they all know I'm a cold weather weenie (and proud of it!). Get the fireplace going!

[abajan]

Shucks, you folk in the northern islands have sure been having a rough time over the last several days.

I hope things improve significantly soon and will be keeping you in my thoughts & prayers!

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130847
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
415 AM AST THU OCT 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING THE ACTIVE WEATHER
OF LAST FEW DAYS HAVE MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A
TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
THAT THE SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD AND THE LOW
LEVELS NORTH WINDS WILL PUSH IT CLOSER TO THE AREA AGAIN. UNDER THIS
SCENARIO...WE CAN EXPECT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
WITH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA HAVING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE LOCAL AIRMASS REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN REMAINS. BECAUSE OF THIS I
HAVE CONTINUED WITH A "WET" FORECAST TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN...WITH A TROUGH AXIS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA TO A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 26 NORTH
67 WEST...WITH THIS GENERAL PATTERN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS MAINTAINING A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTH
NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL WATERS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.



It's not over yet.

[recmod]

Hmmmm....I am starting to get concerned about this Caribbean mess. I leave for a cruise to St Thomas and St Maarten on Saturday and it looks like this persistent weather pattern across the NE Caribbean is not going away anytime soon. Luis (or anyone else living in this area)....how have the seas been running around Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands?? I am a big wimp when it comes to ocean motion and I think an extra bottle of Dramamine may be called for....

Hopefully that Cape Verde system doesn't decide to develop and mosey on over to the Leeward Islands in the next week...

--Lou

[cycloneye]

Hmmmm....I am starting to get concerned about this Caribbean mess. I leave for a cruise to St Thomas and St Maarten on Saturday and it looks like this persistent weather pattern across the NE Caribbean is not going away anytime soon. Luis (or anyone else living in this area)....how have the seas been running around Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands?? I am a big wimp when it comes to ocean motion and I think an extra bottle of Dramamine may be called for....

Hopefully that Cape Verde system doesn't decide to develop and mosey on over to the Leeward Islands in the next week...

--Lou

Well looks like some ocean motion in the next few days for the cruise.By the way have a good trip and a safe one.

MARINE...
MODERATE SSW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STRONGER FLOW IN
THE MONA PASSAGE AND TO ITS NORTH...WITH WIND AND SEAS THERE AT OR
ABOVE 20 KNOTS AND 6 FEET. WIND AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A HUGE PULSE OF LARGE
AND VERY LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE
ATLC...AND MORE NNE INTO THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS... AND
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY SATURDAY.