hurricane next week for fla?

[bigmike]

JB in his forecast outlook is calling for a hurricane to hit florida next week? What is he talking about?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

JB in his forecast outlook is calling for a hurricane to hit florida next week? What is he talking about?

SERIOUSLY!?!??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Joe Bastardi

There is a heck of a lot of weather going on, including the chance that winter is going to start for the Lakes and Northeast early as the negative NAO starts to show, the threat of a Florida hurricane late next week from the first trof lifting out, and development over the western Caribbean. Of course, such events make the GFS's now obvious misplay of the trof this weekend and its temperature bust from yesterday runs minor. The Northwest will get slammed by the trof coming in this weekend with it splitting over the West. Get used to it. As that warm water in the Gulf of Alaska is a nice sign of the wet winter to come there as it supports deep storms coming in and splitting through the ridge that may wind up in the interior West. But the point is the pulse is starting and the pattern of volatility has the chance to deliver a nasty blow to the Northeast, to the Northwest this weekend, and to the Southeast next weekend, and now I have to wonder about what to do in the Southwest if that trof splits.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Is Joe B. Usually Accurate about this stuff? I ask this in order to
comprehend the gravity of this threat.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is Joe B. Usually Accurate about this stuff? I ask this in order to
comprehend the gravity of this threat.

JB has not been right since the Nixon Administration...

[terstorm1012]

He seems to be good with teleconnections and pattern recognition....but because he's in a media/corporate position, he hypes them. I hate AccuWx, but I do respect JB and his forecasts.

The biggest concern for now is the upcoming hybrid rain deluge that will soon hit the Northeast.

[Brent]

I'll believe it when I see it.

It bears watching, but I wouldn't freak out just yet.

[Noah]

I'll believe it when I see it.

It bears watching, but I wouldn't freak out just yet.

Brent, what are they talking about? This weather system out there in the bahamas has been doing the same thing for like a week now. HAs not seem to have changed.

[Brent]

I'll believe it when I see it.

It bears watching, but I wouldn't freak out just yet.

Brent, what are they talking about? This weather system out there in the bahamas has been doing the same thing for like a week now. HAs not seem to have changed.

I honestly don't know. With it still a week away, it will probably be something new that flares up.

[NastyCat4]

Today's Discussion
Today's Discussion Posted: October 12, 2005 6:55 a.m.

A large area of disturbed weather extending from near Bermuda into the
northeastern Caribbean is being caused by an upper-level low pressure area located between Puerto Rico and Bermuda; this will move northward over the next couple of days. A broad area of surface low pressure over the Bahamas will spilt into two parts. The main low pressure area will accompany the upper-level low and move northward, while another low breaks off and moves into the central Caribbean. The surface low accompanying the upper-level low might become a non-tropical storm Thursday or Friday. There is some concern that if this low does become a "subtropical storm" it could evolve into a more tropical system as it moves over warm water. A large surface high building eastward into the Canadian Maritimes will work with this low to create strengthening winds and increasing surf Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. This could lead to very large waves well offshore. A large storm likely would bring tidal flooding and beach erosion along the middle and northeastern Atlantic coastal areas. All boaters, especially fisherman, should take the evolution of this storm very seriously. Long range computer models suggest this system could turn into a very large storm that might have both tropical and non-tropical characteristics. These kinds of storms can create phenomenal waves and very large swells for days.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic Basin, there are several tropical waves to watch. One is along 29 west, south of 18 north. Another is along 41 west, south of 17 north. A third was along 51 west, south of 16 north, with a fourth wave along 62 west south of 20 north, or over the Lesser Antilles. All waves are moving west at about 10 knots. The large upper-level low north of Puerto Rico is causing strong westerly wind shear over the Caribbean and into the central Atlantic, so it will be very difficult for any of these waves to become better organized through the end of the week and into the weekend.

Here's a quote from crap-u-weather. I see no direct reference to Florida, or any organized storm predicted at all, just generalities.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'll believe it when I see it.

It bears watching, but I wouldn't freak out just yet.

Brent, what are they talking about? This weather system out there in the bahamas has been doing the same thing for like a week now. HAs not seem to have changed.

I honestly don't know. With it still a week away, it will probably be something new that flares up.

I think he is refering to the LP below Jamacia spinning wwd after the NEter clears out and then moving N...

[wxcrazytwo]

could this be the destructive ALPHA in the making..You know greeks mean business..hehhehe

[x-y-no]

Joe Bastardi

There is a heck of a lot of weather going on, including the chance that winter is going to start for the Lakes and Northeast early as the negative NAO starts to show, the threat of a Florida hurricane late next week from the first trof lifting out, and development over the western Caribbean. Of course, such events make the GFS's now obvious misplay of the trof this weekend and its temperature bust from yesterday runs minor. The Northwest will get slammed by the trof coming in this weekend with it splitting over the West. Get used to it. As that warm water in the Gulf of Alaska is a nice sign of the wet winter to come there as it supports deep storms coming in and splitting through the ridge that may wind up in the interior West. But the point is the pulse is starting and the pattern of volatility has the chance to deliver a nasty blow to the Northeast, to the Northwest this weekend, and to the Southeast next weekend, and now I have to wonder about what to do in the Southwest if that trof splits.

As usual, he's leaving himself a big escape clause by only referencing a "threat" - so if it doesn't pan out, he doesn't have a busted forecast but if it does happen he's a genius.

That said, there's no model support for this beyond generally low pressure in the Caribbean and the advent of deeper mid-latitude troughs as fall sets in, so even suggesting it is kind of a gutsy call. This is JB's classic pattern-recognition technique, and I certainly think it's possible he's right.

[ameriwx2003]

The EURO has been showing something trying to develope next week in the Caribbean.. This time of the year climatology would say if something developed in the Western Caribbean, Florida could be a target.

[jujubean]

Is Joe B. Usually Accurate about this stuff? I ask this in order to
comprehend the gravity of this threat.

JB has not been right since the Nixon Administration...

[curtadams]

JB has predicted that Ivan and Dennis would go into New Orleans a la Katrina, that Rita would throw her surge up the Houston Ship Channel, that Ophelia would re-drown NO, that Ophelia would make a direct hit on the Carolinas, that Ophelia would hit New England, that Phillippe and Irene would be major hurricanes on the East Coast, and that Tammy would be a destructive hurricane going in.

In other words, JB almost *always* predicts a major catastrophe from any tropical system. The fact that he's predicting another hurricane in FL means - that he's alive and breathing and that Accuwx hasn't fired him.

[NastyCat4]

In other words, JB almost *always* predicts a major catastrophe from any tropical system. The fact that he's predicting another hurricane in FL means - that he's alive and breathing and that Accuwx hasn't fired him.

Exactly. He is a paid procurer for his services. I know what we call that in other spheres of life.

[nequad]

JB needs to lay off the pipe.

[Steve H.]

You are looking at his free column today, not the standard nothingness that is at the accuweather tropical outlook that Nastycat referenced, which has been on that site all week. This threat is a crap shoot, but he's talking about a climatologically favored area at a time when heights are rising in the north Atlantic and lower pressures due to warmth exist in the western Caribbean. Sure something may come to fruition there, odds almost favor that something may try to develop there, but where and where is the question. I think that what's there now (western Caribbean) is not what he's talking about, but some of the global ensembles. A couple of the CMC members show a hurricane developing in the western Caribbean and crossing Cuba, then up the east coast of Florida and NE from there. CMC02, and 05 were showing it last night. There may have been others (global ensembles) that were showing this as well, but I didn't look that deep 'cause its a long shot he's looking at. But "tis the season for development there, so it could happen....again when and where would be the obvious questions. BTW, these were at approx. hour 168 as of last nite. Heck, Something could pop in the Caribbean this week or the next two weeks. Wait for more model support for this idea, and watch the model trends. They'll give us a better idea. Cheers!!

[Brent]

In other words, JB almost *always* predicts a major catastrophe from any tropical system. The fact that he's predicting another hurricane in FL means - that he's alive and breathing and that Accuwx hasn't fired him.

Rita was supposed to be the worst hurricane ever to hit Texas.

It hit Louisiana.