Is a fifty foot surge possible?????

[wxmann_91]

Not even close. The NWS has revised the max surge from 32 ft to 28 ft.

Is it possible? Well I'm not sure. I guess it is if a Cat 5 slams into NYC.

[krysof]

Not even close. The NWS has revised the max surge from 32 ft to 28 ft.

Is it possible? Well I'm not sure. I guess it is if a Cat 5 slams into NYC.

I think galveston has a good chance

[f5]

Not even close. The NWS has revised the max surge from 32 ft to 28 ft.

Is it possible? Well I'm not sure. I guess it is if a Cat 5 slams into NYC.

I think galveston has a good chance

i wonder where i can find data like that.hunting for it gets awful hard

[wxmann_91]

Not even close. The NWS has revised the max surge from 32 ft to 28 ft.

Is it possible? Well I'm not sure. I guess it is if a Cat 5 slams into NYC.

I think galveston has a good chance

The bathymetry offshore of Galveston is much deeper than the bathymetry to the east I think.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I think the highest possible surge along the gulf could occur at the northern end of Mobile Bay if a category 5 hit just west of there, making the bay act as a funnel to the northern end, causing extreme surge heights.

Code: Select all

Think about it like this (general terms):
x= unit of water

you have 20 units of water going into a bay that is 10 dash marks across at the southern end:

----------
xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx

By the time it reaches the northern end, the bay is only 2 dash marks across, but you still have 20 units of water

    --   
xxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxx

^except that the water isn't all the way across, remember it is being funneled, so it looks more like this:
Y = 2 units of water

--
YY
YY
YY
YY
YY

Perhaps even higher.  This surge would flood the northern end of the bay tremendously....and guess what is on the NW end of the bay....yep, the city of Mobile.

[Ixolib]

Not even close. The NWS has revised the max surge from 32 ft to 28 ft...

If this statement reflects Katrina's surge, the NWS needs to physically come to town and spend a few days with a measuring tape and some surveying equipment. There are many eye-witness accounts of some hotels (that are still standing) that have a level surge line only inches from the ceilings in their second floor rooms - and they were built at 10+ feet above MSL.

[WeatherNole]

I believe that based on all the S.L.O.S.H. basins and scenarios that have been run, the highest surge potential is 38 feet in Apalachee Bay.

I'll see if I can find some kind of verification.

Mike

--

[wxmann_91]

Not even close. The NWS has revised the max surge from 32 ft to 28 ft...

If this statement reflects Katrina's surge, the NWS needs to physically come to town and spend a few days with a measuring tape and some surveying equipment. There are many eye-witness accounts of some hotels (that are still standing) that have a level surge line only inches from the ceilings in their second floor rooms - and they were built at 10+ feet above MSL.

Sorry, I meant the max measured surge. The final determined max surge could still be higher. However, the trend is down.

Now, I would have no idea how the water line would be so high compared to the recorded surge.

[wxman57]

20 foot surge with a 30 foot wave atop it.

For the record, such a scenario would produce a 35 ft peak, not 50 ft. A 30 foot wave extends above mean sea level by only 15 feet. The other 15 feet is below mean sea level. Waves are measured from crest to trough, not crest to mean sea level.

[Derek Ortt]

some of the water may have been wave related in MS, but once trapped in a room, it will resemble level water

The surge to wave height may have only been 5 feet as the region is not very wave prone, and the waves move very rapidly in shallow water, so in places, waves may have been nearly on top of each other

[Lindaloo]

some of the water may have been wave related in MS, but once trapped in a room, it will resemble level water

The surge to wave height may have only been 5 feet as the region is not very wave prone, and the waves move very rapidly in shallow water, so in places, waves may have been nearly on top of each other

Tell that to some of the people holding on to roofs until a wave would push them high enough to get onto the roof. Tell that to the people on Market Street in Pascagoula that saw a huge wall of water with white caps coming at them. Tell that to my dentist who was going to ride it out in his home on the beach here but changed his mind when he noticed the waves going out instead of in at 4:30 in the morning!

[f5]

some of the water may have been wave related in MS, but once trapped in a room, it will resemble level water

The surge to wave height may have only been 5 feet as the region is not very wave prone, and the waves move very rapidly in shallow water, so in places, waves may have been nearly on top of each other

Tell that to some of the people holding on to roofs until a wave would push them high enough to get onto the roof. Tell that to the people on Market Street in Pascagoula that saw a huge wall of water with white caps coming at them. Tell that to my dentist who was going to ride it out in his home on the beach here but changed his mind when he noticed the waves going out instead of in at 4:30 in the morning!

lets not start a fight.we just have to wait on the NHC number

[f5]

I believe that based on all the S.L.O.S.H. basins and scenarios that have been run, the highest surge potential is 38 feet in Apalachee Bay.

I'll see if I can find some kind of verification.

Mike

--

back in july dennis did a number on that area st marks had serious flooding

[MGC]

Lindaloo, are you saying your dentist noticed the water being sucked away from the beach at 4:30?.......MGC

[Derek Ortt]

regardless as to the extent of the surge and wave height rise, the water rises in both cases

[Lindaloo]

Lindaloo, are you saying your dentist noticed the water being sucked away from the beach at 4:30?.......MGC

Yes ma'am. When he saw that he left to ride out the storm in his dentist office. He still foated around in about 8 feet of water.

[weatherwoman]

has new york ever had a hurricane

[mitchell]

20 foot surge with a 30 foot wave atop it.

Not onshore...maybe offshore under the right conditions....shoaling of 30 foot waves would be tremendous before the waves reached the shoreline.

[mitchell]

didn't Katrina's get close?

I just spent two weeks on disaster relief in from Biloxi westward to the Louisiana line....I'd say the storm surge was in the neighborhood of 20-25 feet. This is based on observing hundreds of buildings, debris lines, water lines, and other evidence. It was staggering.

[Ixolib]

didn't Katrina's get close?

I just spent two weeks on disaster relief in from Biloxi westward to the Louisiana line....I'd say the storm surge was in the neighborhood of 20-25 feet. This is based on observing hundreds of buildings, debris lines, water lines, and other evidence. It was staggering.

...and the surge saga continues.