This has been a strange season, I

[wxcrazytwo]

don't ever remember a season being quite like this one have you? The season has not been following climatology, TD's that should been dissipated don't and grow into monsters, we have waves that die and then a week later form. Is this the kind of weather we will be seeing for a long time to come or is this just 1-100 year type of situation. Comments Welcome.

[terstorm1012]

Trends take awhile to pan out. Let's wait three or four years...

[Brent]

I would expect above average seasons(although hopefully not this busy) for the next 10-20 years AT LEAST barring El Nino(like 1997).

I was watching a replay on C-SPAN of Max Mayfield testifying before Congress on Friday, and he said that even in an inactive cycle, you cannot let your guard down since 1992 was a slow year(only 6 named storms), but Andrew hit.

[Weatherfreak14]

Will we proably have more storms next year? Or will they just be stronger.

[Duffy]

the thing that dissapoints me is that we didn't get a True long tracker or Cape Verde System this year......not that i wish one of them on anyone, however it doesn't seem like a true Hurricane Season without at least one long tracker....the conditions were just too hostile this year
Now watch next year, we get nothing but long trackers lol

[krysof]

the thing that dissapoints me is that we didn't get a True long tracker or Cape Verde System this year......not that i wish one of them on anyone, however it doesn't seem like a true Hurricane Season without at least one long tracker....the conditions were just too hostile this year
Now watch next year, we get nothing but long trackers lol

and with our bad luck, most of them will hit land

[brunota2003]

the thing that dissapoints me is that we didn't get a True long tracker or Cape Verde System this year......not that i wish one of them on anyone, however it doesn't seem like a true Hurricane Season without at least one long tracker....the conditions were just too hostile this year
Now watch next year, we get nothing but long trackers lol

and with our bad luck, most of them will hit land

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO dont say that, drat, you jinxed us, Gordon is going to be the worst next year...

[NastyCat4]

The only likelihood that can be predicted is it will be another "above average" year. There will be 11.6 OR MORE storms again, as that is the climate pattern we are in. Beyond that, we cannot even guess. A repeat of 20+ storms is statistically unlikely.

[brunota2003]

The only likelihood that can be predicted is it will be another "above average" year. There will be 11.6 OR MORE storms again, as that is the climate pattern we are in. Beyond that, we cannot even guess. A repeat of 20+ storms is statistically unlikely.

But the hurricanes to date this year havent given thought about climotology, Vince for example..., so MY predication is 25/11/6 for next year, with Gordon being the worst....

[krysof]

The only likelihood that can be predicted is it will be another "above average" year. There will be 11.6 OR MORE storms again, as that is the climate pattern we are in. Beyond that, we cannot even guess. A repeat of 20+ storms is statistically unlikely.

statistically, these storms don't care about statistics, or climatology, this year they just through it out the window

I can find a thread where people thought the first storm would form by mid July or late July. Instead we get Arlene in June.

[sponger]

I have lost track of how many records went down this year. Likely a 1 in 100 year event. However, 4 hurricanes into Florida last year was supposed to be a 1 in 200. So God only knows what next year will be. I guess 2025 will be so boring, but we will likely be glad it is!

[f5]

the thing that dissapoints me is that we didn't get a True long tracker or Cape Verde System this year......not that i wish one of them on anyone, however it doesn't seem like a true Hurricane Season without at least one long tracker....the conditions were just too hostile this year
Now watch next year, we get nothing but long trackers lol

they are fun to watch unless its named Katrina/Rita,monsters that blow up in your face at the last minute which gives less time to evacuate a city like NO or Houston which looked like the traffic jam of the century .roadside rages,flipoffs,fightsd ect

[NastyCat4]

But the hurricanes to date this year havent given thought about climotology, Vince for example..., so MY predication is 25/11/6 for next year, with Gordon being the worst....

That simply is not going to happen--look at the years starting 1n 1995, and you can get an idea what next year will be. This was a 500 year event--expect 13-15 storms next season, and stop the hype. This year isn't over yet.

[tornadochaser86]

better get used to were in the beginning of a more active stage in the tropics

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The only likelihood that can be predicted is it will be another "above average" year. There will be 11.6 OR MORE storms again, as that is the climate pattern we are in. Beyond that, we cannot even guess. A repeat of 20+ storms is statistically unlikely.

Yup it is statistically unlikely. But if some lurking variable is
helping to rev up these storms than we may see another
record-active year. But science has no way of knowing of these
lurking variables at this time.

GIVEN: The current multidecadal cycles.
Extrapolating:
There are many possible lurking variables that may in some way
affect cyclone activity,
Possibilites:
1. Global Warming
2. Volcanic Impacts
3. Solar Flare/Solar Factors
4. etc....

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Charley, Frances and Jeanne made me a believer in the more active cycle hypothesis, but this year really took the cake.

[wxmann_91]

I have noted that the active cycles start and end in very active years, and that quiet cycles have abrupt beginnings and abrupt endings. Perhaps 2006 will be the beginning of a quiet cycle???

Example: the quiet period between 1970-1995 started abruptly after the crazy 1969 year (18 named storms by today's standards), with only 10 storms in 1970. It ended after 1994 (7 named) when 1995 brought on 19 named storms.

Wishful thinking, but nevertheless a possibility.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

At least for the past 5 years or so, The O-storm seems a pretty good benchmark. 2001 ended with Olga, 2003 ended with Odette and Peter, and 2004 ended with Otto. 2000 ended with Nadine and 1998 ended with Nicole. I don't think the enormity of this season was truly impressed upon me until I was tracking Hurricane Ophelia and realized it was early September, not November.

Aside from 1997, the two least-active hurricane seasons of the past decade were 1999 and 2002, which both only made it to the L storm, although there's a huge difference between 1999's 5 Category 4 storms, and 2002's lack of dignity.

I think the only thing that's really for sure, though...regardless of how much activity we see in 2006, someone's world will be turned upside down next year.