Applied from the Katrina Special: Worst Canes yet to come?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Weatherfreak000

Applied from the Katrina Special: Worst Canes yet to come?

#1 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:09 pm

I remeber watching the guy dig up dirt to determine hurricane history in Louisiana. Wow what a boring yet fascinating science that must be. He claimed that it's possible there is a far different trend. I'll elaborate on these ideas and put in some of my thoughts.


Perhaps "Activity" does indeed range way greater then we can anticipate. In fact there is a possibility that the cycle is indeed prolific.



Here for instance, the time of dinosaurs was hot right? That must have been a form of "intense" global warming that surely brought many powerful hurricanes to that time. In fact, i'd be inclined to say it's possible massive hurricanes and a huge climate shift could be a theory in the resulting extinction of the dinosaurs.



The world could very well go through hundred....thousand...perhaps even million year cycles of activity with little "mini cycles" of greater activity within.


This all leads me to wonder what kind of hurricanes did the dinosaurs encounter....and if global warming if indeed an effect (which I think it is) we could very well be encountering some insane hurricane seasons yet to come.


The guy on the special said thousand year cycles but i'm thinking we may be on the tailend of a Billion year cycle into very powerful hurricanes.


Opinions?
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:11 pm

would have been nice if Katrina and Rita could have waited so that the possibility of 1500 year cycles could be investigated.

If we are entering into a 1500 year active cycle, as well as the decadal active cycle, seasons like this year and last are going to be the norm possibly
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Applied from the Katrina Special: Worst Canes yet to com

#3 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:23 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:I remeber watching the guy dig up dirt to determine hurricane history in Louisiana. Wow what a boring yet fascinating science that must be. He claimed that it's possible there is a far different trend. I'll elaborate on these ideas and put in some of my thoughts.


Perhaps "Activity" does indeed range way greater then we can anticipate. In fact there is a possibility that the cycle is indeed prolific.



Here for instance, the time of dinosaurs was hot right? That must have been a form of "intense" global warming that surely brought many powerful hurricanes to that time. In fact, i'd be inclined to say it's possible massive hurricanes and a huge climate shift could be a theory in the resulting extinction of the dinosaurs.



The world could very well go through hundred....thousand...perhaps even million year cycles of activity with little "mini cycles" of greater activity within.


This all leads me to wonder what kind of hurricanes did the dinosaurs encounter....and if global warming if indeed an effect (which I think it is) we could very well be encountering some insane hurricane seasons yet to come.


The guy on the special said thousand year cycles but i'm thinking we may be on the tailend of a Billion year cycle into very powerful hurricanes.


Opinions?


Yes I think some sort of cyclical global warming is exacerbating the
normal hurricane cycle-
I stated an opinion on this yesterday but got severely flamed by
someone who was "sick and tired" of "bull manure" global warming.
0 likes   

Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:24 pm

Well, we are in for a normal "ACTIVE CYCLE"...however...we are going to start seeing storms like this::::

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Image

Each of those hurricanes today would be monster events. A Cat 5 that weakens just below Cat 5 making a direct hit on Fort Lauderdale....Can you imagine?
0 likes   

Weatherfreak000

yeah

#5 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:27 pm

But the thing is you have to fish through several different years to find these canes.



Nowadays we are getting two to four of these disasters EVERY YEAR.




Nothing on you man, just thought it helped my opinions lol.
0 likes   

Weatherfreak000

woah

#6 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:29 pm

Look at Cane #10.



It started in the pacific and became an Atlantic Storm. Incredible.
0 likes   

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 44
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#7 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:29 pm

I've read about those cycles within cycles. Actually, paleo-studies into climate and geology are research interests of mine, tho i'm done with school for the time being.

At this point I say anything is possible. The Earth will do anything to maintain a balance and these cycles could be seen as just that.
0 likes   

MiamiensisWx

#8 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue Oct 11, 2005 1:55 pm

This would DEFINATELY NOT BE GOOD if this verified...
Image
0 likes   

Weatherfreak000

hmmm...

#9 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:09 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:This would DEFINATELY NOT BE GOOD if this verified...
Image




Well i'm not trying to be a harsh critic but how could you possibly get this info? We're talking Millions of years ago...


Anyway, i'm definitely excited about 06, seeing as how my name Tony although shortened from Anthony will be out there.



I just hope I can see it thrive and with these past seasons it appears very possible.
0 likes   

krysof

#10 Postby krysof » Tue Oct 11, 2005 2:32 pm

I'm excited to see what my name Chris will do in 2006 considering it's been used 3 times, and not retired. 2006 could be different, I just hope it doesn't become an east coast hurricane.
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#11 Postby f5 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:08 pm

krysof wrote:I'm excited to see what my name Chris will do in 2006 considering it's been used 3 times, and not retired. 2006 could be different, I just hope it doesn't become an east coast hurricane.


thats my name to but the hard part is when its retired.thats when the jokes start pouring in
0 likes   

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1626
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

#12 Postby sponger » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:42 pm

It was an interesting special. His theory was 1500 year cycles with the current mini 20-40 year cycles with in. He used sediment deposits of sand from previous storm surges. According to his research we are at the end of a 1500 year lull.

If he is correct, and a 1500 year active in conjuntion with the known 20 year actives together would mean serious trouble. We will know if he is right in 10-20 years when the current active ends.
0 likes   

tornadochaser86
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 197
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2005 11:19 am
Location: University of South Alabama
Contact:

#13 Postby tornadochaser86 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:46 pm

yes but there have never ever been any hurricanes in the history of the united states to reach cat5 and stay cat5 at landfall
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#14 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Oct 11, 2005 3:48 pm

tornadochaser86 wrote:yes but there have never ever been any hurricanes in the history of the united states to reach cat5 and stay cat5 at landfall


Public warning!!! One more post like this and you are gone! We all know this is a false statement.
0 likes   

john potter
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 20
Joined: Tue Sep 13, 2005 1:07 pm

#15 Postby john potter » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:08 pm

weatherfreak, or Tony, I am with you. Hurricanes must not be tampered with. A hurricane is a natural entity that performs an essential heat transfer function. People who invest ego and treasure to establish home, life and profession in hurricane landing zones invite not pity but opprobrium when they lose it all. Accuweather's Bastardi (who I respect) has continually raised the spectre of retarding hurricanes by seeding, oiling sea surfaces to retard SSTs, ect. Theses attempts to "tame" hurricanes (from 1947) have, largely failed, mostly, because such attempts invite ruinous litigation (what if seeding caused a 100-year flood???). Stay tuned.
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#16 Postby f5 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:14 pm

if we put a cap on hurricanes and SST raise to 100-105 degrees 200-250 mph hurricanes will become the norm
0 likes   

User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 44
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#17 Postby terstorm1012 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:19 pm

sponger wrote:It was an interesting special. His theory was 1500 year cycles with the current mini 20-40 year cycles with in. He used sediment deposits of sand from previous storm surges. According to his research we are at the end of a 1500 year lull.

If he is correct, and a 1500 year active in conjuntion with the known 20 year actives together would mean serious trouble. We will know if he is right in 10-20 years when the current active ends.


I wish I had seen it. I hope it airs again soon.

You're right too, if the 1500 year lull is over, we're in for a rough time with these 20-40yr cycle bursts.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5598
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

#18 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:47 pm

terstorm1012 wrote:
sponger wrote:It was an interesting special. His theory was 1500 year cycles with the current mini 20-40 year cycles with in. He used sediment deposits of sand from previous storm surges. According to his research we are at the end of a 1500 year lull.

If he is correct, and a 1500 year active in conjuntion with the known 20 year actives together would mean serious trouble. We will know if he is right in 10-20 years when the current active ends.


I wish I had seen it. I hope it airs again soon.

You're right too, if the 1500 year lull is over, we're in for a rough time with these 20-40yr cycle bursts.


A 1500 hundred year lull over?? Wow. Scary Thought. :eek: :eek: :eek:
0 likes   

krysof

#19 Postby krysof » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:50 pm

that means cities like Miami, New Orleans again, Tamp, NYC, Houston, and Galveston are all going to be effected- some of those cities may literally be wiped off the charts. New Orleans is the most likely area, as they could get hit again in time
0 likes   

f5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1550
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2005 3:29 pm
Location: Waco,tx

#20 Postby f5 » Tue Oct 11, 2005 4:52 pm

krysof wrote:that means cities like Miami, New Orleans again, Tamp, NYC, Houston, and Galveston are all going to be effected- some of those cities may literally be wiped off the charts. New Orleans is the most likely area, as they could get hit again in time


thats a huge chunk of change
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 221 guests