Anthony...
Have a safe trip home.
Yesterday we had some early morning rain showers, followed by partly cloudy skies during the afternoon hours. Then come mid to late evening, there was some hefty rain showers that came through my area that had some thunder and a bit of lighting....in the form of flashes. Had a high of 57 with a low of 42. Precip total... 0.59
Today however, we had off/on steady rains through much of the day, with just a short lull during the late afternoon hours, before having more steady rains come through here just shortly after dark. My high for today was 51 with a low of 45. And precip total is 0.24.
-- Andy
Pacific Northwest Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
The last few days were pretty cold for this time of year. But it looks like that system has lifted on outta here and we're off to more seasonable weather.
I'm going to go out on one of those limbs I hate and say that the ridge the models are putting here in the West by about mid-month will be a weak one. I think the models have waayy over-built the thing. Note: I'm not saying it won't warm up and dry out a little starting about mid-month. I just think the models are overdoing it a bit.
But that's just me. Comments? Ideas? Anybody out there?
I'm going to go out on one of those limbs I hate and say that the ridge the models are putting here in the West by about mid-month will be a weak one. I think the models have waayy over-built the thing. Note: I'm not saying it won't warm up and dry out a little starting about mid-month. I just think the models are overdoing it a bit.
But that's just me. Comments? Ideas? Anybody out there?
0 likes
-
Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
Reading all the discussions, it does not sound like this ridge will be a monster ridge, they are hinting at ridge/trough/ridge/trough kind of pattern. Pretty typical, really. At some point we will get a dry week with a lot of fog, it happens most Octobers. From the Pendleton forecast discussion: "BUT THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH / RIDGE /
TROUGH PATTERN SEEMS REASONABLE."
TROUGH PATTERN SEEMS REASONABLE."
0 likes
So I am in Minnesota visiting family, I am in a town called Ham Lake in Anoka Co. (I think anyway lol) Its like 1 hr north of the Minneapolis Airport. so driving up here the Lightning was just insane! Flashes about every 2 seconds with extremely heavy rain. Lasted all evening and night last night. We had 5" of rain just last night, all the fields and some roads are still underwater. The news said it was the worst rainstorm since 1987. They had a tornado come through and do some damage last week, there are huge stacks of trees/limbs in this one parking lot where the town had cleaned up and dumped it. Yesterday it was in the 70's and humid, they are talking rain/snow mixed for tonight possible. Dramatic temp change today when the front moved through. Currently mostly clear with a temp of 44 degrees. Was cool to see some wild weather again!
0 likes
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
I think we're coming into a really tricky transition period. I think we will get a couple of nice, dry days...especially early in the week. I'm really bad at this forecasting bit, but like that's going to stop me?? Here goes: Late next week and into next weekend will be kinda "troughie", but no full-on storms. Agree with Brian that the ridge will not be "monster." I think we stand a good chance of seeing a nice, PNW fall-like storm the 3rd week of October.
CPC shows that we were below normal this past September. If we are below normal again this October, what does that mean for November? Probably nothing. It's hard enough for the pros to look 2 or 3 days out. I don't even know enough to know what it is I don't know. I kinda agree with Joe Bastardi who said that the winter pattern is still a good 4-6 weeks out...if not a little longer.
I enjoy reading everybody's posts. Where are snow_wizzard and TT?
CPC shows that we were below normal this past September. If we are below normal again this October, what does that mean for November? Probably nothing. It's hard enough for the pros to look 2 or 3 days out. I don't even know enough to know what it is I don't know. I kinda agree with Joe Bastardi who said that the winter pattern is still a good 4-6 weeks out...if not a little longer.
I enjoy reading everybody's posts. Where are snow_wizzard and TT?
0 likes
-
Brian_from_bellingham
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 75
- Joined: Wed Jan 12, 2005 10:57 am
- Location: Bellingham, WA
Snowwizzard posts on OFA and DKH, though I think he has given up on OFA because there is so much fighting going on. I think both sides are to blame.
I heard from mcminvilleweather.com, the high school guy who knows Dr. George Taylor, that he might be coming up with a "new report". I wonder if he will be updating his fall and winter forecast, which he never does.
I heard from mcminvilleweather.com, the high school guy who knows Dr. George Taylor, that he might be coming up with a "new report". I wonder if he will be updating his fall and winter forecast, which he never does.
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
R-Dub... I am from MN.
I distinctly remember that storm in 1987. It was July 23rd and we got 14 inches of rain at our house that night.
The weather is pretty wild up there. Thats why I think its kind of funny when we talk about the extremes of Western Washington which... outside of a never-to-be-repeated cold phase of the PDO back in the 1950's... is pretty dull.
I did some research and found that the PDO actually shifted to the cold phase in 1998 and we are almost to the bottom now. But this cold phase is behaving like a normal cold phase and the not the wildly extreme cold phase of the 1950's.
Nobody should assume we will ever see a pattern like the 1950's in our lifetime. We could still get a good winter but that was extreme.
This article is very interesting and even SW agrees that it makes a good case that we entered the cold phase of the PDO way back in 1998...
http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/pdotrend.htm
I distinctly remember that storm in 1987. It was July 23rd and we got 14 inches of rain at our house that night.
The weather is pretty wild up there. Thats why I think its kind of funny when we talk about the extremes of Western Washington which... outside of a never-to-be-repeated cold phase of the PDO back in the 1950's... is pretty dull.
I did some research and found that the PDO actually shifted to the cold phase in 1998 and we are almost to the bottom now. But this cold phase is behaving like a normal cold phase and the not the wildly extreme cold phase of the 1950's.
Nobody should assume we will ever see a pattern like the 1950's in our lifetime. We could still get a good winter but that was extreme.
This article is very interesting and even SW agrees that it makes a good case that we entered the cold phase of the PDO way back in 1998...
http://www.john-daly.com/theodor/pdotrend.htm
0 likes
Home for the weekend...
I came in from Spokane yesterday afternoon and I would have posted earlier but I spent most of the afternoon/night down at the UW...had to check out a frat party. I wound up crashing at my friend's dorm.
As for the weather, it certainly feels like fall. One thing to watch...Thursday night/Friday storm. The GFS keeps flip-flopping from a direct hit to the moisture bloom staying north of the border. Latest models indicate a somewhat pineapple express connection but nothing too substantial...maybe a hint of the fall/winter season to come?! lol.
One quick note...I don't know if people are aware but two UW seismologists were killed in a logging accident last week. I met both professors when I did a small internship down at the GeoScience department over the summer. Please keep them in your prayers.
I will post alot this weekend...I don't have too much planned. I will be watching the baseball series being an avid Yankees fan and all. Too bad they sucked last night! What a joke...11-7! Randy Johnson can't pitch worth crap. Sorry, had to vent...lol.
Anthony
I came in from Spokane yesterday afternoon and I would have posted earlier but I spent most of the afternoon/night down at the UW...had to check out a frat party. I wound up crashing at my friend's dorm.
As for the weather, it certainly feels like fall. One thing to watch...Thursday night/Friday storm. The GFS keeps flip-flopping from a direct hit to the moisture bloom staying north of the border. Latest models indicate a somewhat pineapple express connection but nothing too substantial...maybe a hint of the fall/winter season to come?! lol.
One quick note...I don't know if people are aware but two UW seismologists were killed in a logging accident last week. I met both professors when I did a small internship down at the GeoScience department over the summer. Please keep them in your prayers.
I will post alot this weekend...I don't have too much planned. I will be watching the baseball series being an avid Yankees fan and all. Too bad they sucked last night! What a joke...11-7! Randy Johnson can't pitch worth crap. Sorry, had to vent...lol.
Anthony
0 likes
Not much activity on this thread so I guess I'll keep it alive...
A pretty dull weekend...cool and cloudy. Not much precipitation, although we had some steady showers last night. I originally thought today was going to be sunny and mild, but the high pressure system is taking longer to move in and there's a weak surface trough just north of the border influencing our weather. Today should be partly/mostly cloudy all day.
A weakening frontal system moves through on Monday afternoon/evening with light precipitation amounts...maybe a little heavier along the coast and cascade foothills. Nothing too impressive for the middle of October.
A moderate front moves through Thursday with plenty of moisture and a weak surface low. Should give us a hint of true fall/winter weather...or at least what we can expect until March. lol. After that, a broadbrush forecast of one system affecting the region every 48 hours or so...nothing unusual for the middle/end of October. I don't see a massive fall storm coming anytime soon...I really want a good windstorm. We haven't had a widespread windstorm for along time...I wouldn't count the Dec. 2002 storm as a widespread wind event. Surface low was too weak and areas north of Everett saw very little wind.
Hopefully this thread becomes more active. I leave for Spokane late tomorrow morning and I probably won't be back until Thanksgiving.
Anthony
A pretty dull weekend...cool and cloudy. Not much precipitation, although we had some steady showers last night. I originally thought today was going to be sunny and mild, but the high pressure system is taking longer to move in and there's a weak surface trough just north of the border influencing our weather. Today should be partly/mostly cloudy all day.
A weakening frontal system moves through on Monday afternoon/evening with light precipitation amounts...maybe a little heavier along the coast and cascade foothills. Nothing too impressive for the middle of October.
A moderate front moves through Thursday with plenty of moisture and a weak surface low. Should give us a hint of true fall/winter weather...or at least what we can expect until March. lol. After that, a broadbrush forecast of one system affecting the region every 48 hours or so...nothing unusual for the middle/end of October. I don't see a massive fall storm coming anytime soon...I really want a good windstorm. We haven't had a widespread windstorm for along time...I wouldn't count the Dec. 2002 storm as a widespread wind event. Surface low was too weak and areas north of Everett saw very little wind.
Hopefully this thread becomes more active. I leave for Spokane late tomorrow morning and I probably won't be back until Thanksgiving.
Anthony
0 likes
I finally have time to post and no activity! lol! Where is everyone?!
Well, I'm off to Spokane. It was awesome being home for the weekend but it's time to return to reality.
Looking at latest models, weak frontal systems will move through today, Wednesday and Friday. Friday's system looks a little more intense, but nothing out of the ordinary for the middle of October. There's a weak surface low associated with the Friday system, so things could get breezy. Extended models continue this westerly flow with embedded shortwaves racing along the jet stream every 36-48 hours. I still don't see a significant storm brewing, but a continued unsettled pattern looks probable the next two weeks.
Hopefully this thread picks up. It seems we've lost alot of people...including Snow_Wizzard. But I bet he'll be back just in time for winter! lol. I will try to post as often as possible, but I can't make any promises. Things will be hectic from here until Thanksgiving.
Anthony
Well, I'm off to Spokane. It was awesome being home for the weekend but it's time to return to reality.
Looking at latest models, weak frontal systems will move through today, Wednesday and Friday. Friday's system looks a little more intense, but nothing out of the ordinary for the middle of October. There's a weak surface low associated with the Friday system, so things could get breezy. Extended models continue this westerly flow with embedded shortwaves racing along the jet stream every 36-48 hours. I still don't see a significant storm brewing, but a continued unsettled pattern looks probable the next two weeks.
Hopefully this thread picks up. It seems we've lost alot of people...including Snow_Wizzard. But I bet he'll be back just in time for winter! lol. I will try to post as often as possible, but I can't make any promises. Things will be hectic from here until Thanksgiving.
Anthony
0 likes
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
Well, Anthony, I'm glad you were here to keep the thread alive over the weekend. It has been slow, hasn't it?
Brian - I think one of the things about Dr. Taylor's report is his sense that we will pick up a lot of banana-belt type moisture starting in about November. I wonder if he is backing off of that a little? He's been a little tepid where I've been reading him lately, but he hasn't called it off. This weekend, the PDX mets were talking about how we are due a wet fall and winter, and how we're over 100% above normal right now. I kinda like those little polar-maritime systems that show up in November and December (as opposed to banana belt.) Should be an interesting season.
I'm wondering if we're trending La Nina, but nobody else seems to think so, so I'll let that one go.
I read the OFA forum site awhile ago and decided that those people are a little too vicious for me and take all the fun out of the weather. If I ever take myself that seriously, it's time to move on.
It was nice to read that TT has posted. Hope we see snow_wizzard and others soon, too.
Brian - I think one of the things about Dr. Taylor's report is his sense that we will pick up a lot of banana-belt type moisture starting in about November. I wonder if he is backing off of that a little? He's been a little tepid where I've been reading him lately, but he hasn't called it off. This weekend, the PDX mets were talking about how we are due a wet fall and winter, and how we're over 100% above normal right now. I kinda like those little polar-maritime systems that show up in November and December (as opposed to banana belt.) Should be an interesting season.
I'm wondering if we're trending La Nina, but nobody else seems to think so, so I'll let that one go.
I read the OFA forum site awhile ago and decided that those people are a little too vicious for me and take all the fun out of the weather. If I ever take myself that seriously, it's time to move on.
It was nice to read that TT has posted. Hope we see snow_wizzard and others soon, too.
0 likes
-
skipnfamily
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 36
- Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 12:10 am
- Location: Silverdale,WA
- Contact:
Hey people. I really dont think snow wizard will ever come here again. As for everyone else they are at DKH site or Old Farmers Almanac. If you can get past the bickering it is really good. Lots of good info from sno wizard and mcminville.com dude. I actully wish all the PNW people would come here. Then there will be no bickering besides between Sno Wiz and TT of course.
Hey R-Dub. How you doin'?
0 likes
Hi
Just wanted to say hi and introduce myself. I actually have been very interested in the weather and am looking at buying a home weather station.
Anyway, I don't know if it's appropriate to discuss what the weather WAS like this summer or not in the PNW. If it isn't, let me know.
The weird thing that I noticed that not only was the ocean real warm off the coast, the water got EXTREMELY warm inland. I watch a weather buoy in the Strait of Georgia located on Halibut Bank. It's basically out in the middle of the strait (a little closer to the mainland). It got above 70F for water temperature for a good stretch of time in July. I've never seen this before. It's dropped off quite a bit since, but I noticed during the same time period that overnight lows weren't making it down to dew point on the Sunshine Coast. This is VERY odd since we normally see large amounts of dew during the summer right near the water.
Sorry if this is inappropriate. Let me know! Thanks for such an interesting site.
Anyway, I don't know if it's appropriate to discuss what the weather WAS like this summer or not in the PNW. If it isn't, let me know.
The weird thing that I noticed that not only was the ocean real warm off the coast, the water got EXTREMELY warm inland. I watch a weather buoy in the Strait of Georgia located on Halibut Bank. It's basically out in the middle of the strait (a little closer to the mainland). It got above 70F for water temperature for a good stretch of time in July. I've never seen this before. It's dropped off quite a bit since, but I noticed during the same time period that overnight lows weren't making it down to dew point on the Sunshine Coast. This is VERY odd since we normally see large amounts of dew during the summer right near the water.
Sorry if this is inappropriate. Let me know! Thanks for such an interesting site.
0 likes
Nice Looking Storm For Friday-Saturday
It looks like there's a pretty strong storm headed towards the PNW for the weekend. I'll be in West Seattle so I'm looking at this one closely. Any thoughts would be appreciated as if this was headed to SoCal it would be a monster, but you guys are probably used to systems like these!!
0 likes
I must say I'm disappointed with this thread...there's almost no activity. Where is everyone?!
One thing's for sure...don't go over to The Old Farmer's Almanac forum. I've been posting a few things over there for a week now, and the people on that discussion board are annoying. It's just a bunch of bickering that goes on 24/7.
Where is TT-SEA?! He hasn't posted forever! I miss his factual information...unlike most, he actually posts information that is 95 percent accurate.
Not much else to say. It's been warm and cloudy in Spokane...a little breezy...but nothing special. I'm still praying for a good windstorm this season.
Anthony
One thing's for sure...don't go over to The Old Farmer's Almanac forum. I've been posting a few things over there for a week now, and the people on that discussion board are annoying. It's just a bunch of bickering that goes on 24/7.
Where is TT-SEA?! He hasn't posted forever! I miss his factual information...unlike most, he actually posts information that is 95 percent accurate.
Not much else to say. It's been warm and cloudy in Spokane...a little breezy...but nothing special. I'm still praying for a good windstorm this season.
Anthony
0 likes
Anthony: A lot has been going on at the Old Farmer's Almanac forum over the past month! TT-SEA started accusing all of us that were posting on there (Me, Brennan, Snow_Wizzard, Brian, etc.) and some people that I didn;t even know, nor did anyone else. He kept saying that we were all the same person. How absurd is that?! Randy can surely vouch for us that bought those weather tapes from him. We all had different mailing addresses!
Anyways, TT kept doing this and eventually got banned from that forum. Then, all of a sudden an account of a different name showed up just after he got banned, and has pretty much the exact same opinions as TT did on that site.
I'm not sure why he isn't here, though. I guess he gave up on this forum because no one was posting...
Anyways, TT kept doing this and eventually got banned from that forum. Then, all of a sudden an account of a different name showed up just after he got banned, and has pretty much the exact same opinions as TT did on that site.
I'm not sure why he isn't here, though. I guess he gave up on this forum because no one was posting...
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
W13,
Thanks for the info. I sure hope TT-SEA isn't Ron Cristy or Davey...those two could drive a person nuts.
I probably won't continue to post on that forum...when you try to express a point, nobody reads the actual information. They only see what they want to see. The bickering is ridiculous.
Anthony
Thanks for the info. I sure hope TT-SEA isn't Ron Cristy or Davey...those two could drive a person nuts.
I probably won't continue to post on that forum...when you try to express a point, nobody reads the actual information. They only see what they want to see. The bickering is ridiculous.
Anthony
0 likes
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
I wish you guys would ALL come back from OFA. It's just ridiculous over there. My oh my.....
I thought maybe we would get a good trough in here this week, but it looks like it's about a week out. I'm getting bored with this pattern, too. No direct hit yet. We do have a little ridge over us, but it's pretty flat. We need one good storm to knock it on it's back side. It was very cool out this morning. I think we were down to about 43.
TT - if you get a chance and if you don't mind, would you mind posting the finer points of snow_wizzard's winter forecast? If both of you say it's good, that's good enough for me. But I think we've lost snow_wizzard for good. If you don't want to, no harm done. I just thought I'd take a stab at it.
Maybe we need just one good storm to get everybody back?
I thought maybe we would get a good trough in here this week, but it looks like it's about a week out. I'm getting bored with this pattern, too. No direct hit yet. We do have a little ridge over us, but it's pretty flat. We need one good storm to knock it on it's back side. It was very cool out this morning. I think we were down to about 43.
TT - if you get a chance and if you don't mind, would you mind posting the finer points of snow_wizzard's winter forecast? If both of you say it's good, that's good enough for me. But I think we've lost snow_wizzard for good. If you don't want to, no harm done. I just thought I'd take a stab at it.
Maybe we need just one good storm to get everybody back?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: wxman22 and 10 guests