(issued 10 October 2005)
The Bureau of Meteorology's outlook for the 2005/2006 tropical cyclone season for North West Australia is:
<li>An average season with around five cyclones expected to form off North West Australia.</li>
<li>Around one or two coastal impacts.</li>
<li>Significant risk of at least one severe cyclone coastal impact during the season.</li>
<li>There is a low to moderate risk of a cyclone forming off the North West coast before Christmas.</li>
The Kimberley or adjacent Eighty-mile Beach is the area most likely to be affected should a cyclone form before Christmas.
"At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclone that might occur" cautioned Joe Courtney, Severe Weather meteorologist. "So the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared" said Mr Courtney.
In the next two weeks staff from the Bureau of Meteorology and FESA-State Emergency Services will visit communities in the Pilbara and Kimberley to promote cyclone awareness and preparation initiatives.
The seasonal forecast is primarily based on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon which is expected to remain in the neutral phase for this cyclone season. The July-September 3-month mean value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -0.7.
