Vince - only one model BUT...

[ChaserUK]

Needless to say I never thought I would see my little island in the path of a TS according to BAMM!!!!

http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y292/D ... Models.jpg

Jaw dropped and amazed. How can this be?

[LAwxrgal]

"THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY."

Those aren't my words, they're the NHC's.

[ChaserUK]

well I guess the statement that SST's need to be 28+ are out of the window now!

[P.K.]

It is also headed directly over London based on that model run.

[ChaserUK]

speechless!!!!

[Persepone]

Scary projected track...

Hello to Jersey! Last time I was there was in 1960... I guess it has changed a lot. Had a wonderful visit there. Hope that Vince somehow changes track.

[ChaserUK]

Scary projected track...

Hello to Jersey! Last time I was there was in 1960... I guess it has changed a lot. Had a wonderful visit there. Hope that Vince somehow changes track.

Hello from Jersey!!!!!!

I say there is NO way this system could head this way and maintain its Hurricane status but then, before tonight I would not have said a Hurricane could form over SSTs os 22/23c.

I am sure this is gonna give us some interesting weather soon enough. In what form I don't know. Looks more likely that Portugal will get hit - by 'something'.

Glad you enjoyed your visit anyways! It's a geourgous place!

[jojo]

Are you the ChaserUK from the UKWeatherWorld forums? If so, do you think you'll be able to get close to where it's expected to make landfall?

[Rainband]

Definately been a very weird year!!! Nice to see our UK buddies here

[P.K.]

jojo,

Here is the thread on UKWW http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=24287&start=151&posts=158

[jojo]

jojo,

Here is the thread on UKWW http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=24287&start=151&posts=158

I know - I'm already on there P.K. talk of chartering planes, anyone got the odd dropsonde lying around the house and all that. This is a real biggie for us, isn't it?

[P.K.]

lol, I did check the list of people who were online and your user name wasn't on there so it must be different on there. - This is certainly a very significant event for us yes.

[ChaserUK]

Are you the ChaserUK from the UKWeatherWorld forums? If so, do you think you'll be able to get close to where it's expected to make landfall?

Yes I am but I think that has been addressed already

Have to say I am planning a European Hurricane Chase - now, those three words together just don't look right do they.

[ChaserUK]

that said I am not saying this will make landfall as a Hurricane but ever since Vince formed - who knows!

[stu]

I have been looking into this as a possible chase – my target airport would be Vigo (VGO) in N.W. Spain. Booking the flight and arranging the car might be tricky for me (I don’t speak Spanish) but I would do it all over the web anyway. I would have to really arrive Monday and plan to return on Wednesday.

However the cost of flight from the UK are just unreal, so I wont be making the trip – about twice the cost of my recent trip to Hurricane Rita from the UK! Also Vince will just not survive the crashing cold front from the North west…. Might still be some good waves to film however….

[skysummit]

I've been gone all day, but all I can so is "un-freaking-real".

[LAwxrgal]

I've been gone all day, but all I can so is "un-freaking-real".

This whole season has been un-freaking-real.

[beachbum_al]

Oh just great. My husband's aunt and uncle are over in England and it looks like the tropical season has follow them over there from the Gulf Coast. Oh just great!

[aerojad]

Now I know it's just one model but... check this out: http://www.secondpagemedia.com/confundo ... st&p=96114

The BAMD takes this storm right across the Mediterranean Sea - toward the ever-warming waters in the eastern part of the sea, holding it at least at 'tropical' depression status through 120 hours, and heading generally toward Israel.

[MWatkins]

For what this is worth...given the conditions and relatively cool SST's...this sure does remind me of one of those rare Mediterranean "hurricanes" that have developed over the years.

None other than Jack Beven, NHC hurricane specialist, maintains a page on a Mediterranean Sea storm from Jan 1995...I figured I'd pass it along...I coundn't read through the other thread with all the posts so I am sorry if I have duplicated someone else's post here:

http://www.mindspring.com/~jbeven/intr0008.htm

The shape sure looks similar.

MW